Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A.ST) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Swedbank AB (publ) provides various banking products and services to individuals and companies.The company operates through Swedish Banking, Baltic Banking, and Large Corporates & Institutions segments.It offers savings accounts, mutual funds and insurance savings, pension savings, institutional asset management, and other savings and investment products; private residential lending, consumer financing, corporate lending, leasing, other financing products, trade finance, and factoring services; and current accounts, cash handling, debit and credit cards, card acquiring, other payment products, as well as domestic, international, mobile, and document payments.

The company also provides equity trading, structured products, corporate finance, custody services, fixed income and currency trading, and other capital market products; and administrative services, treasury operations, real estate brokerage and management, legal services, safe deposit boxes, and others.In addition, it offers asset management, as well as life insurance and pension services; investment and trading services, including currency, fixed income, and equity and related derivatives services, as well as structured products; advisory and investment banking products and services, such as corporate financing, debt capital market, leveraged finance, and loans and syndication; and transaction banking services comprising cash management, trade finance, securities, commercial payments, account, and clearing and settlement services.Further, the company provides telephone, Internet, and mobile banking services.

The company operates 153 branches in Sweden, 17 branches in Estonia, 21 in Latvia, and 42 in Lithuania.It also has operations in Norway, Finland, Denmark, China, the United States, and South Africa.The company was formerly known as ForeningsSparbanken AB and changed its name to Swedbank AB (publ) in September 2006.

Swedbank AB (publ) was founded in 1820 and is headquartered in Sundbyberg, Sweden.

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1.b. Last Insights on SWED

Swedbank AB (publ) benefited from the U.S. Justice Department closing a probe, which led to a 6.8% intraday share price surge. The company's steady long-term gains and recent performance drew investor attention. A recent analyst update modestly raised the consensus price target to SEK 278.33, indicating growing confidence. Additionally, Swedbank secured a €19 million contract for the renovation of its Vilnius headquarters and was involved in a €318 million financing agreement for a Lithuanian wind farm project.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	356.6
Change Percentage	0.99%
Open	354.1
Previous Close	353.1
Market Cap ( Millions)	400899
Volume	3156420
Year High	358.7
Year Low	186.4
M A 50	322.53
M A 200	280.78

FCF Yield	-11.68%
Dividend Yield	6.09%
ROE	15.37%
Debt / Equity	427.62%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	1622.37%
Price To Book	1.78
Price Earnings Ratio	12.24
Price To FCF	-8.56
Price To sales	3.39
EV / EBITDA	25.49

2. Swedbank's Q4 2025 Results: Strong Performance and Sustainable Growth

Swedbank reported a strong fourth quarter result, with a return on equity of 14.7% and a cost-to-income ratio of 0.36. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at 6.91, beating analyst estimates of 6.03. Net interest income was unchanged compared to the previous quarter, while net commission income increased, driven mainly by securities and corporate finance. The bank's lending volumes grew by 3% in the quarter, with mortgage volumes in Sweden sold through own channels increasing by SEK 4.1 billion.

Publication Date: Feb -02

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Return on Equity (ROE)::
                                                Achieved 14.7% ROE in Q4 2025, reflecting strong profitability, with an annual sustainable ROE of 15%.
Lending Growth::
                                                Total lending increased by SEK 108 billion, driven by SEK 47 billion in corporate loans and SEK 44 billion from Entercard and Stabelo.
Cost Efficiency::
                                                Maintained a cost-to-income ratio of 0.36, aligning with cost management goals and supporting profitability.
Capital Position::
                                                CET1 capital buffer stood at 3 percentage points, with a proposed total dividend of SEK 29.8 per share (SEK 20.45 ordinary + SEK 9.35 special).
Asset Quality::
                                                Impairments totaled SEK 355 million in Q4, offset by SEK 186 million macroeconomic release, reflecting solid asset quality despite Entercard-related risks.

                                

Financial Highlights

The bank's financial performance was robust, with a CET1 capital buffer of 3 percentage points and a strong capital and liquidity position. Swedbank's mortgage portfolio is growing, with lending and mortgages increasing by SEK 23 billion in the quarter. The bank's asset quality is solid, with total impairments for the fourth quarter amounting to SEK 355 million.

Valuation and Dividend

Swedbank's current P/B Ratio is 1.73, and the Dividend Yield is 6.26%. The bank proposed a total dividend of SEK 29.8 per share, of which SEK 20.45 is ordinary dividend and SEK 9.35 is a special dividend. This dividend payout is in line with the bank's dividend policy of 60-70% of earnings per share.

Growth Prospects

Swedbank is well-positioned for sustainable growth, with a strong presence in the Baltic region and a growing mortgage portfolio in Sweden. The bank expects growth to come from strong public investments and consumption, particularly in the Baltic region. As Jens Henriksson noted, "Swedbank has had a successful 2025 and is well-positioned for sustainable growth and profitability."

Operational Efficiency

The bank is focused on improving operational efficiency, with a cost target of SEK 27.5 billion, which is inclusive of investments in efficiency and IT. Swedbank is also leveraging technology, including AI, to enhance customer experience and improve anomaly detection.

Regulatory Environment

Swedbank is navigating a complex regulatory environment, including ongoing investigations and potential changes to capital adequacy rules. The bank is well-capitalized, with a CET1 capital buffer within the target range of 100-300 basis points.

3. NewsRoom

Swedbank AB (SWDBF) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Returns Amid Competitive Challenges

Feb -02

Source:

Swedbank (SWDBY) Upgraded to Strong Buy: Here's Why

Jan -27

Source:

Is It Too Late To Consider Swedbank (OM:SWED A) After Its 1-Year 63.6% Rally?

Jan -16

Source:

Swedbank Shares Climb After U.S. Justice Department Closes Probe

Jan -15

Source:

Havila Shipping ASA : DNB, Swedbank and Danske Bank demand prepayment of outstanding debt

Dec -12

Source:

Best Income Stock to Buy for December 8th

Dec -08

Source:

Sanoma has signed a new EUR 220 million syndicated term loan

Dec -05

Source:

Swedbank (OM:SWED A): Breaking Down the Valuation Behind Recent Share Price Gains

Nov -30

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.07%)

6. Segments

Swedish Banking

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Swedbank AB’s strong presence in Sweden drives growth, with increasing demand for retail and corporate banking services. The bank’s digital transformation and cost-cutting initiatives also support growth prospects.

Baltic Banking

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Increasing demand for retail and corporate banking services in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania drives growth. Swedbank’s strong brand and extensive network will support market share gains, with the Baltic region’s economic growth and EU funding supporting loan growth and fee income.

Corporates & Institutions

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Swedbank AB (publ) provides tailored financial solutions and services to large corporations, financial institutions, and public sector entities, driving growth through its diversified product offerings and strong market presence.

Group Functions & Other

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Swedbank’s Group Functions and Other segment growth is driven by cost savings initiatives, and the bank's efforts to simplify and streamline its operations, which are expected to offset the negative impact of declining Swedish economy.

Premium and Private Banking

Expected Growth: 5.2%

Swedbank AB (publ)’s Nordic private banking segment is expected to grow due to increasing wealth in the Nordic countries, driven by strong economic growth, and the bank’s strong brand and long-term relationships with clients.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Swedbank AB (publ)’s growth is driven by its efforts to simplify operations, increase efficiency, and reduce costs, ultimately leading to improved profitability.

7. Detailed Products

Private Banking

Personalized banking services for high net worth individuals, including investment advice, wealth management, and tailored financial solutions.

Corporate Banking

Financial solutions for businesses, including cash management, trade finance, and risk management services.

Transaction Banking

Efficient and secure payment solutions for businesses, including account services, payment processing, and card services.

Card Services

Credit and debit card solutions for individuals and businesses, including payment processing and card management services.

Asset Management

Investment management services for individuals, companies, and institutions, including portfolio management and investment advice.

Life Insurance

Life insurance products and services, including term life, whole life, and pension insurance.

Pension and Savings

Pension and savings solutions for individuals and companies, including retirement planning and investment services.

Digital Banking

Online and mobile banking services, including account management, payment services, and investment platforms.

8. Swedbank AB (publ)'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Swedbank AB (publ) operates in a highly competitive market, with many substitutes available to customers. However, the bank's strong brand recognition and extensive branch network help to mitigate the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Swedbank AB (publ) has a large customer base, which gives customers significant bargaining power. The bank's customers have many options to choose from, and the bank must offer competitive pricing and services to retain them.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Swedbank AB (publ) has a diverse supplier base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers. The bank's large scale of operations also gives it significant negotiating power with suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The banking industry has significant barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and high capital requirements. This makes it difficult for new entrants to challenge established players like Swedbank AB (publ).

Intensity Of Rivalry

The banking industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Swedbank AB (publ) must continually innovate and improve its services to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	86.21%
Debt Cost	7.28%
Equity Weight	13.79%
Equity Cost	7.28%
WACC	7.28%
Leverage	625.02%

11. Quality Control: Swedbank AB (publ) passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

KBC

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Swedbank

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Danske Bank

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

UniCredit

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Lloyds Banking

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Deutsche Bank

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

24.24%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.28%

Swedbank AB (publ) - SE0000242455

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on SWED

1.c. Company Highlights

Average Yield

Stable Momentum

Average Growth

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Average Quality

Medium Volatility

Fairly Valued

Earnings Miss

Better Quality

Cheaper

Higher Growth

2. Swedbank's Q4 2025 Results: Strong Performance and Sustainable Growth

Financial Highlights

Valuation and Dividend

Growth Prospects

Operational Efficiency

Regulatory Environment

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.07%)

6. Segments

Swedish Banking

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Baltic Banking

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Corporates & Institutions

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Group Functions & Other

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Premium and Private Banking

Expected Growth: 5.2%

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 5.5%

7. Detailed Products

Private Banking

Corporate Banking

Transaction Banking

Card Services

Asset Management

Life Insurance

Pension and Savings

Digital Banking

8. Swedbank AB (publ)'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Swedbank AB (publ) passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA