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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Intrum AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides credit management and financial services in Europe and internationally.The company offers credit optimization services, including credit monitoring, credit decision, factoring, and credit information services; and debt collection comprising surveillance and purchase services.It also provides payment services, such as reminder, payment guarantee, and VAT services; e-commerce services comprising credit management, payment solutions, and collection services; accounts receivables services that include invoicing, payment booking, monitoring of due dates, reminder, and collection services; and financing and portfolio investment services.


Intrum AB (publ) was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

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1.b. Last Insights on INTRUM

Intrum AB's recent performance was driven by a 26% increase in EBIT and improved servicing margins in Q4 2024, despite structural challenges. The company's debt restructuring plan in the US was confirmed by a judge, clearing a major obstacle. Additionally, Intrum discontinued its holdout noteholder deal, allowing it to proceed with its pre-packaged Chapter 11 filing. These developments indicate a positive trajectory for the company, potentially leading to improved financial stability and reduced debt burden.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Intrum's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Strong Underlying Performance

Intrum reported a Q4 2025 P&L with income down 7% year-on-year, largely driven by FX fluctuations. The EPS came out at -16.68076, missing estimates at 0.8. Despite the decline in income, the company's underlying business progress in servicing and investing remained strong. The servicing EBIT margin was 31% in Q4, and the investing business displayed high collections, with a collection index above 100%. The adjusted EBIT was largely unchanged, with cost reductions offsetting income decline.

Publication Date: Feb -18

📋 Highlights
  • Leverage improvement: Year-on-year leverage ratio decreased to 4.8 from 5.3, reflecting progress in deleveraging strategy
  • Investing performance: Q4 IRR reached 18% with SEK 436m new investments, while annual IRR hit 20% despite smaller investment book
  • Goodwill write-down: Non-cash impairment of SEK 2.9 billion impacted Q4 P&L, driven by strategic review and asset valuation adjustments
  • Operational efficiency gains: Norway’s optimization achieved 36% cost reduction, 46% higher collection per FTE, and 50% EBIT margin uplift
  • Strategic financial targets: Aiming for 3x leverage by 2030, 30-35% servicing EBIT margin, and SEK 10-15bn debt reduction via organic cash flow and asset sales

Strong Servicing Performance

The company's servicing business saw organic growth, with a strong sales execution. The servicing EBIT margin expansion is expected to be driven initially by lower costs, with revenue growth and scalability playing a role later on. The bulk of cost savings is expected to come from the servicing business, particularly in the collection process. As CFO Masih Yazdi highlighted, Norway's EBIT margin is higher than the group average, and the company aims to replicate this success across other markets.

Investing Business and Deleveraging

The investing business is expected to contribute to income growth, but the timing is uncertain and depends on the evolution of funding costs. The company has a plan to deleverage, and when funding costs come down, it will be able to invest more. Intrum targets a leverage ratio of 3x, with a plan to redeem SEK 10-15 billion by 2030. The company's current leverage ratio is 4.8, and it has SEK 45 billion in nominal debt outstanding.

Valuation and Outlook

Intrum's current valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of -4.25, a P/B Ratio of 0.56, and an EV/EBITDA of 8.81. The company's Net Debt / EBITDA is 7.69, indicating a high debt burden. However, with a strong underlying performance and a plan to deleverage, Intrum is well-positioned to improve its financials. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 0.8%, indicating a slow but steady recovery.

Strategic Review and Targets

Intrum's strategic review for 2030 focuses on deleveraging, derisking, and growth acceleration. The company aims to cement its position as the leading credit management servicer and most attractive investment partner in Europe. The company's financial targets include service leveraging, total cost, and servicing EBIT margin. With a new executive management team in place, Intrum is well-positioned to drive its transformation journey and achieve its targets.

3. NewsRoom

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Stegra appoints new Board Director

Jan -30

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Intrum AB (ITJTY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Cost Reductions and Deleveraging ...

Jan -29

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Intrum (OM:INTRUM) Losses Widen at 43.3% Rate, Spotlighting Financial Health Concerns

Oct -31

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Does Heineken’s Slump Signal Opportunity After Record Low US Alcohol Consumption?

Sep -09

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Enel (BIT:ENEL): Is the Current Valuation Overlooking Subtle Shifts in Performance?

Sep -09

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Telecom Italia (BIT:TIT): Fresh Valuation Perspectives After Strong Share Price Momentum

Sep -09

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Alfa Laval (OM:ALFA): Evaluating the Company’s Valuation as Investors Weigh Recent Modest Share Price Movements

Sep -09

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Porsche SE (XTRA:PAH3): Assessing Value Potential Following Recent Share Price Stability

Sep -09

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.74%)

6. Segments

Servicing

Expected Growth: 8.95%

Intrum AB's 8.95% growth is driven by increasing demand for debt collection services, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. The company's expertise in digitalization and analytics enables efficient servicing, attracting clients seeking to optimize their credit management processes. Additionally, Intrum's strong brand reputation and compliance with regulatory requirements contribute to its growth momentum.

Investing

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Intrum AB's 8.5% growth is driven by increasing demand for debt collection services, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. The company's focus on digitalization and process efficiency also contributes to growth. Additionally, a rising trend of outsourcing debt collection by businesses and governments supports Intrum's growth momentum.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Intrum AB's 8.5% growth is driven by strategic acquisitions, expanding market share in credit management services, and increased demand for debt collection solutions. Additionally, the company's digital transformation efforts, cost savings initiatives, and favorable interest rates contribute to its growth momentum.

Head Office Adjustment

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Intrum AB's 8.5% Head Office Adjustment growth is driven by efficient cost management, strategic investments in digital transformation, and a strong focus on operational excellence. Additionally, the company's solid financial position and effective working capital management have enabled it to capitalize on market opportunities, further contributing to its growth.

Discontinued Operations

Expected Growth: 7.95%

Intrum AB's 7.95% growth in Discontinued Operations is driven by strategic divestments, improved operational efficiency, and a favorable debt restructuring. The company's focus on core businesses and cost savings initiatives have also contributed to this growth. Additionally, the divested units' improved performance prior to sale and a benign macroeconomic environment have supported this growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Credit Management

Intrum's Credit Management services help businesses manage their accounts receivable and improve cash flow by providing credit checks, credit reports, and debt collection services.

Debt Collection

Intrum's Debt Collection services help businesses recover outstanding debts and improve their cash flow by providing amicable and legal debt collection services.

Invoice Management

Intrum's Invoice Management services help businesses streamline their invoicing and payment processes, reducing administrative burdens and improving cash flow.

Risk Management

Intrum's Risk Management services help businesses identify and mitigate credit risks by providing credit ratings, credit limits, and risk assessments.

Business Information

Intrum's Business Information services provide businesses with access to company data, credit reports, and industry insights to support informed decision-making.

8. Intrum AB (publ)'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Intrum AB (publ) operates in the debt collection industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative debt collection methods, such as in-house collections, the industry is dominated by specialized debt collection agencies like Intrum.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Intrum AB (publ) has a large customer base, including banks, financial institutions, and other organizations. However, the bargaining power of customers is relatively low due to the specialized nature of debt collection services.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Intrum AB (publ) has a diverse supplier base, including IT service providers, consultants, and other vendors. The bargaining power of suppliers is relatively low due to the company's large scale and diversified supply chain.

Threat Of New Entrants

The debt collection industry has moderate barriers to entry, including regulatory requirements and the need for specialized expertise. While new entrants can still enter the market, the threat of new entrants is relatively low due to these barriers.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The debt collection industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Intrum AB (publ) faces intense rivalry from competitors, which can lead to pricing pressure and reduced margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 78.37%
Debt Cost 9.86%
Equity Weight 21.63%
Equity Cost 9.86%
WACC 9.86%
Leverage 362.24%

11. Quality Control: Intrum AB (publ) passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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BFF Bank

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Resurs Holding

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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MutuiOnline

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.6

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Intrum

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 9.1

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Grenke

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Funding Circle

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

41.17$

Current Price

41.17$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows