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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Tele2 AB (publ), a telecom operator, provides fixed and mobile connectivity and entertainment services in Sweden, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.The company offers mobile telephony and data, fixed broadband, fixed telephony, switch and contact center, cloud services, IT services, network services, workplace, video and collaboration, and security services.It also provides data network services, including dark fiber, dedicated wavelength, ethernet and IP VPN, and internet services; and unified communications comprising service provider, mobile virtual network operator, and carrier SIP-interconnect services.


In addition, the company offers single and dual IMSI solutions for consumer and IoT applications; on-demand roaming services, such as subscription management, data plan management, real time charging, eSIM delivery, SIM management, and set up services; routing and termination solutions for international voice traffic; application-2-person messaging services; and value-added services comprising shortcodes and long numbers for businesses to have 2-way communication with their customers.Tele2 AB (publ) was founded in 1993 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.

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1.b. Last Insights on TEL2

Tele2 AB's recent performance has been impacted by a lack of clear catalysts, with investors scrutinizing the company's valuation after a notable share price momentum. Despite a 47.8% gain this year and 103.1% over five years, concerns arise. The company's 5G expansion in 2025 may be facing headwinds. With no recent earnings release providing clear guidance, investors are left to ponder the sustainability of this momentum. A recent dip of 1.6% may signal short-term volatility. Analysts are reevaluating their stance, searching for signals beneath the surface.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Tele2 Delivers Solid Q2 Performance with Strong Cash Flow and Raised Guidance

Tele2 reported a robust Q2 2025 performance, with organic end-user service revenue growing 2% year-over-year, driven by strong contributions from the Baltics and Sweden Business segments. Underlying EBITDAaL surged 15%, benefiting from cost-cutting measures and workforce reductions, while equity free cash flow reached SEK 1.6 billion, up SEK 450 million year-on-year. The company also raised its full-year guidance, now expecting underlying EBITDAaL growth to exceed 10% organically, up from its previous mid- to high single-digit growth forecast. CEO Jean-Marc Harion emphasized that the accelerated cost-cutting measures were part of the original transformation plan, with no new ambitions beyond the initial workforce reduction target of 600-700 positions.

Publication Date: Jul -17

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth: 2% organic growth in end-user service revenue, driven by Baltics and Sweden Business.
  • EBITDA Growth: 15% increase in underlying EBITDAaL, supported by cost savings and workforce reductions.
  • Workforce Reduction: Over 500 positions reduced, with a target of 600-700 total reductions by year-end.
  • Cash Flow: Equity free cash flow reached SEK 1.6 billion, up SEK 450 million year-on-year.
  • Guidance Upgrade: 2025 EBITDAaL growth guidance raised to over 10% from mid-single-digit expectations.

Regional Performance and Operational Highlights

In Sweden, Consumer end-user service revenue declined 1%, primarily due to the discontinuation of Boxer terrestrial TV, but excluding this impact, growth was 1%. Mobile Postpaid added 10,000 RGUs, and fixed broadband ASPU grew 2%, supported by the successful launch of new flexible TV and streaming offerings. Sweden Business delivered a 4% revenue increase, fueled by IoT and Large segment growth. The Baltics outperformed expectations, with a 7% revenue increase and 20% underlying EBITDAaL growth, supported by price adjustments and cost discipline. Cash conversion improved to 77% over the last 12 months, reflecting higher margins and disciplined spending.

Financial Discipline and Balance Sheet Strength

Tele2’s focus on cost governance and restructuring yielded significant benefits, with restructuring costs of SEK 83 million and a decrease in net financial items due to lower interest rates. Economic net debt declined to SEK 24.7 billion, leveraging strong cash generation. The company’s financial policy remains unchanged, with no near-term revisions expected during the transformation year. As Peter Landgren noted, “The cost-cutting measures were an acceleration of existing plans, not new initiatives, with further efficiencies expected in specific areas.”

Valuation and Outlook

Tele2 currently trades at a P/E ratio of 26.03 and an EV/EBITDA of 12.36, reflecting market confidence in its transformation progress. The stock’s dividend yield of 4.52% and free cash flow yield of 6.45% highlight its attractive income characteristics. While the company faces headwinds such as competition in Swedish open fiber areas and regulatory challenges, its focus on agility, data-driven product launches, and 5G investments positions it well for long-term growth. Management’s ability to deliver ahead of schedule on its transformation goals underscores its execution capabilities, though macroeconomic uncertainties and reinvestments in growth areas could moderate H2 performance.

3. NewsRoom

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Oct -21

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Tech, Media & Telecom Roundup: Market Talk

Oct -21

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Tech, Media & Telecom Roundup: Market Talk

Sep -30

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Tele2 (OM:TEL2 B): Evaluating Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum

Sep -11

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Is There Still Opportunity in Tele2 After Strong 48% Gain and 5G Expansion in 2025?

Sep -09

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Are Utilities Stocks Lagging Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY) This Year?

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Is Telenor (TELNY) Outperforming Other Utilities Stocks This Year?

Jul -18

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Tele2 Shares Jump After Earnings Guidance Raise

Jul -17

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.11%)

6. Segments

End-user Service

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Tele2 AB's 1.2% growth in End-user Services is driven by increasing mobile data consumption, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, improved customer experience, and cost savings initiatives have contributed to this growth.

Equipment

Expected Growth: 0.8%

Tele2 AB's equipment segment growth of 0.8 is driven by increasing demand for 5G network infrastructure, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on cost savings and operational efficiency has enabled it to invest in growth initiatives, further boosting segment performance.

Operator

Expected Growth: 1.1%

Tele2 AB's 1.1% growth is driven by increasing mobile data consumption, 4G network expansion, and cost savings from operational efficiencies. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization, IoT, and 5G investments are expected to contribute to future growth. Furthermore, the operator's strong market position in Sweden and the Baltics provides a solid foundation for continued growth.

7. Detailed Products

Mobile Services

Tele2 AB provides mobile services including voice, data, and SMS to individuals and businesses across Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Fixed Broadband

Tele2 offers fixed broadband services, providing high-speed internet access to homes and businesses.

TV Services

Tele2 provides TV services, offering a range of channels, on-demand content, and streaming capabilities.

IoT Solutions

Tele2 offers IoT solutions, enabling businesses to connect and manage devices, and collect and analyze data.

Cloud Services

Tele2 provides cloud services, including infrastructure, platform, and software as a service, to businesses.

Security Services

Tele2 offers security services, including threat detection, incident response, and security consulting.

8. Tele2 AB (publ)'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Tele2 AB (publ) operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the high switching costs for customers and the lack of viable alternatives.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Tele2 AB (publ) has a large customer base, but the bargaining power of customers is high due to the availability of alternative service providers and the ease of switching.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Tele2 AB (publ) has a diversified supplier base, and the bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the availability of alternative suppliers and the company's significant purchasing power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is moderate due to the high barriers to entry in the telecommunications industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The telecommunications industry is highly competitive, with multiple players competing for market share, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 55.72%
Debt Cost 4.10%
Equity Weight 44.28%
Equity Cost 5.03%
WACC 4.51%
Leverage 125.84%

11. Quality Control: Tele2 AB (publ) passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Telenor

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Proximus

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 9.3

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Telekom Austria

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
KPN

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Freenet

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Tele2

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

147.65$

Current Price

147.65$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows