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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Fastighets AB Balder (publ) develops, owns, and manages residential and commercial properties in Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Germany, and the United Kingdom.The company's property portfolio comprises apartments, offices, rooms or working spaces, retail spaces, restaurants or cafés, industrial spaces, warehouses, and storage spaces, as well as garages and parking spaces.As of December 31, 2021, it owned 1,678 investment properties with a lettable area of 5,509 thousand square meters.


The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden.

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1.b. Last Insights on BALD

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1.c. Company Highlights

2. Balder's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look at Financial Performance

Balder's financial performance in Q4 2025 was marked by a 4% increase in rental income and NOI, driven by a like-for-like rental growth of 2.7%. However, profit from property management was down 7% due to the proposed distribution of Norion shares as a dividend. The earnings per share (EPS) came in at 1.4, beating analyst estimates of 1.2. The company's NAV per share stood at SEK 94, while the debt-to-assets ratio was 48.1%. As Erik Selin, CEO, noted, "We have good liquidity, SEK 24 billion, and a balanced capital allocation until we reach our target of 11x net debt to EBITDA."

Publication Date: Feb -09

📋 Highlights
  • Portfolio Value and Composition: Balder's portfolio stands at SEK 229 billion with 54% residential and 46% commercial properties, maintaining a 95% occupancy rate.
  • Q4 Performance: Rental income and NOI increased by 4%, but property management profit fell 7% due to Norion share distribution, impacting NAV by -SEK 4/share despite a SEK 5.25/share dividend.
  • Liquidity and Debt: Liquidity remains strong at SEK 24 billion, with a debt-to-assets ratio of 48.1% and average interest rate unchanged at 2.9% (50-50 bank-bond financing split).
  • Capital Allocation Target: Net debt/EBITDA target of 11x is unchanged, though Norion distribution temporarily disrupts progress toward this goal.
  • Market Outlook: Finnish occupancy is expected to rise due to reduced new supply, while industrial logistics occupancy dipped 3% QoQ, attributed to acquisitions.

Revenue and Margin Analysis

The company's rental income growth was driven by a combination of like-for-like rental growth and acquisitions. The NOI margin remained stable, indicating effective cost management. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 3.8% for the next year, driven by continued rental growth and a stable occupancy rate of 95%.

Valuation Metrics

Balder's current valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of 10.53 and a P/B Ratio of 0.84. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio stands at 16.0, indicating a significant amount of leverage. The Dividend Yield is currently 0.0%, as the company has not announced a dividend payout. The Free Cash Flow Yield is 5.29%, indicating a reasonable return for investors. With a ROE of 8.19%, the company is generating decent returns on equity.

Capital Structure and Liquidity

Balder's financing mix is largely in line with its target, with a 50-50 split between bank and bond financing. The company's liquidity position is strong, with SEK 24 billion in available liquidity. The average interest rate remains stable at 2.9%. The company's decision not to issue new hybrid instruments and its plan to maintain a balanced capital allocation until it reaches its target net debt to EBITDA ratio of 11x are positive signs.

Outlook and Conclusion

The company's outlook for the medium term remains stable, driven by a steady occupancy rate and rental growth. The distribution of Norion shares as a dividend will temporarily impact the company's NAV, but management is confident in its ability to achieve its target net debt to EBITDA ratio. With a stable financing mix and a strong liquidity position, Balder is well-positioned to navigate the current market conditions.

3. NewsRoom

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Fastighets AB Balder (BALDF) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Growth Amidst Market ...

Feb -06

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How Investors May Respond To Fastighets AB Balder (OM:BALD B) Rebounding Strongly to Profitability in Q3 2025

Nov -09

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.01%)

6. Segments

Residential

Expected Growth: 10%

Residential segment growth of 10% driven by increasing demand for housing in Sweden, fueled by low interest rates, government incentives, and urbanization. Additionally, Balder's strategic acquisitions and development of new properties, as well as its focus on sustainable and modern living, contribute to the segment's growth.

Office

Expected Growth: 11%

Balder's 11% office segment growth is driven by Sweden's thriving economy, increasing demand for modern offices, and strategic acquisitions. The company's focus on sustainable and amenity-rich properties attracts high-quality tenants, leading to higher occupancy rates and rental growth. Additionally, Balder's efficient property management and proactive leasing strategy contribute to the segment's strong performance.

Retail

Expected Growth: 9%

Fastighets AB Balder's 9% retail growth is driven by strategic acquisitions, expanding e-commerce presence, and a strong focus on experiential retail. Additionally, the company's diversified tenant mix, proactive asset management, and favorable market conditions in Sweden contribute to its growth momentum.

Other

Expected Growth: 8%

Fastighets AB Balder's 8% growth is driven by increasing demand for rental apartments, strategic acquisitions, and effective cost management. The company's diversified property portfolio, strong brand recognition, and favorable market conditions in Sweden also contribute to its growth. Additionally, Balder's focus on sustainability and energy-efficient properties attracts environmentally conscious tenants, further boosting growth.

Industrial/Logistics

Expected Growth: 13%

Balder's Industrial/Logistics segment growth of 13% is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, urbanization, and supply chain optimization. Rising online shopping has boosted demand for logistics and warehouse spaces, while strategic locations and modern facilities have enabled efficient distribution and delivery. Additionally, the segment has benefited from the company's active asset management and value-adding initiatives.

Projects for Own Management

Expected Growth: 12%

Fastighets AB Balder's 12% growth in Projects for Own Management is driven by increasing demand for sustainable and energy-efficient properties, strategic acquisitions, and effective cost management. Additionally, the company's focus on urban development and regeneration projects, as well as its strong balance sheet, have enabled it to capitalize on growth opportunities in the Swedish real estate market.

7. Detailed Products

Residential Properties

Balder's residential properties segment offers a range of apartments and houses for rent, providing a comfortable living experience for individuals and families.

Commercial Properties

Balder's commercial properties segment provides office spaces, retail stores, and warehouses for businesses, offering flexible and convenient solutions for entrepreneurs and companies.

Property Development

Balder's property development segment focuses on acquiring, developing, and selling properties, creating new opportunities for residential and commercial use.

Property Management

Balder's property management segment offers a range of services, including property maintenance, rent collection, and tenant management, ensuring that properties are well-maintained and profitable.

8. Fastighets AB Balder (publ)'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Fastighets AB Balder (publ) is medium due to the presence of alternative investment options in the real estate industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the company's strong brand reputation and diversified portfolio of properties.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium due to the company's dependence on a few large suppliers for construction materials and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the Swedish real estate market, including regulatory hurdles and high capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the Swedish real estate market, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 62.04%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 37.96%
Equity Cost 10.37%
WACC 6.39%
Leverage 163.43%

11. Quality Control: Fastighets AB Balder (publ) passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
NEPI Rockcastle

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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SFL

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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PSP Swiss Property

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Catena

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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ImmoFinanz

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.6

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Balder

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

65.2$

Current Price

65.2$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows