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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Autoliv, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and supplies passive safety systems to the automotive industry in Europe, the Americas, China, Japan, and rest of Asia.It offers passive safety systems, including modules and components for frontal-impact airbag protection systems, side-impact airbag protection systems, seatbelts, steering wheels, inflator technologies, and battery cut-off switches, as well as anti-whiplash systems and pedestrian protection systems, and connected safety services and solutions for riders of powered two wheelers.The company primarily serves car manufacturers.


Autoliv, Inc.was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

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1.b. Last Insights on ALIV

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1.c. Company Highlights

2. Autoliv's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Beat on Margin and EPS

Autoliv reported a record $2.7 billion in sales for Q3 2025, a 6% increase year-over-year, driven by strong outperformance in Asia and South America. The company's adjusted operating income rose 14% to $271 million, with an adjusted operating margin of 10%, a 70 basis point improvement. The earnings per share (EPS) came in at $21.91, significantly beating estimates. The strong EPS was driven by higher operating income, taxes, and a reduced number of shares, resulting in a 26% increase in adjusted EPS diluted.

Publication Date: Oct -17

📋 Highlights
  • Record Q3 Sales Growth:: Achieved $2.7 billion, a 6% YoY increase, driven by 4% organic growth with China contributing 90% of sales growth.
  • Adjusted Operating Income Surge:: Rose to $271 million (+14% YoY), with a 10% adjusted margin (70 bps improvement), aided by $50 million supplier settlement.
  • Tariff Cost Recovery:: Recovered 75% of Q3 tariff costs, with full compensation expected by year-end, offsetting 2025 margin pressures.
  • Full-Year Guidance:: Targets 3% organic sales growth, adjusted operating margin of 10–10.5%, and $1.2 billion operating cash flow with 4.5% CapEx.
  • China Strategic Expansion:: 20% Asia growth (90% from China) and a second R&D center in Wuhan to support partnerships with Chinese OEMs, despite 5% Q4 production decline forecast.

Regional Performance and Outlook

The company's performance was led by China, which accounted for 90% of the group's sales growth. Asia (including China) contributed 20% to the sales growth, followed by Americas at 33%, and Europe at around 28%. For Q4, Autoliv expects global light vehicle production to decline by approximately 2.7%, but remains optimistic about outperforming the production growth in China.

Guidance and Margin Expectations

Autoliv provided its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting organic sales growth of around 3%, with an adjusted operating margin of 10% to 10.5%. The company expects operating cash flow to be around $1.2 billion, with CapEx at around 4.5% of sales. Mikael Bratt, in response to a question about lower CapEx, noted that the company has invested heavily in upgrading its industrial footprint over the past couple of years and is now entering a more normalized phase, allowing for lower CapEx as a percentage of sales.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 11.99 and an EV/EBITDA of 7.77, Autoliv's valuation appears reasonable. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.4%, indicating a steady growth trajectory. The company's ROE of 31.19% and ROIC of 19.6% demonstrate its ability to generate strong returns. The dividend yield of 2.5% adds to the attractiveness of the stock.

Key Developments and Initiatives

Autoliv is investing in a second R&D center in China to support growing partnerships with Chinese OEMs. The company has also formed a JV with a Chinese partner to vertically integrate and expand its product offering. These initiatives are expected to drive growth and improve the company's market position.

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.65%)

6. Segments

Airbag, Steering Wheels and Other

Expected Growth: 4%

Autoliv's Airbag segment growth is driven by increasing safety regulations, rising demand for advanced safety features, and growing vehicle production. Steering Wheels growth is fueled by the adoption of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies. The Other segment benefits from the increasing popularity of electric and hybrid vehicles, which require specialized safety components.

Seatbelt

Expected Growth: 6%

Autoliv's seatbelt segment growth is driven by increasing demand for safety features, stringent government regulations, and rising adoption of advanced safety systems in emerging markets. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, such as introducing active safety systems, and its strong relationships with major OEMs contribute to its 6% growth.

7. Detailed Products

Airbags

Autoliv's airbags are designed to deploy in the event of a crash, cushioning the impact and reducing the risk of injury or fatality.

Seatbelts

Autoliv's seatbelts are designed to restrain occupants in their seats, reducing the risk of ejection or injury in the event of a crash.

Steering Wheels

Autoliv's steering wheels are designed to provide a comfortable and safe driving experience, with integrated airbags and other safety features.

Radar and Camera Systems

Autoliv's radar and camera systems are designed to provide advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) features, such as lane departure warning and adaptive cruise control.

Night Vision Systems

Autoliv's night vision systems are designed to enhance visibility in low-light conditions, using infrared cameras and displays to provide a clear view of the road ahead.

Autonomous Driving Systems

Autoliv's autonomous driving systems are designed to enable semi-autonomous and autonomous driving capabilities, using a combination of sensors and software.

8. Autoliv, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Autoliv, Inc. is medium due to the presence of alternative safety systems and components in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Autoliv, Inc. is low due to the company's strong relationships with major automotive manufacturers and its position as a leading supplier of safety systems.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Autoliv, Inc. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for critical components and the potential for supply chain disruptions.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Autoliv, Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the automotive safety systems market, including significant capital investments and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Autoliv, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the automotive safety systems market, with several established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 44.33%
Debt Cost 5.72%
Equity Weight 55.67%
Equity Cost 12.59%
WACC 9.54%
Leverage 79.62%

11. Quality Control: Autoliv, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Pirelli

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
CIE Automotive

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Autoliv

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
HELLA

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Continental

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Knorr-Bremse

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1116.0$

Current Price

1116$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows