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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, a commercial-stage company, develops an immune medicine platform for the diagnosis and treatment of various diseases.The company offers immunoSEQ, a platform and core immunosequencing product that is used to answer translational research questions, as well as to discover new prognostic and diagnostic signals; and T-Detect COVID for the confirmation of past COVID-19 infection.It also provides clonoSEQ, a clinical diagnostic product for the detection and monitoring of minimal residual disease in patients with multiple myeloma, B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, as well as available as a CLIA-validated laboratory developed test for patients with other lymphoid cancers; and immunoSEQ T-MAP COVID for vaccine developers and researchers to measure the T-cell immune response to vaccines.


In addition, the company offers a pipeline of clinical products and services that are used for the diagnosing, monitoring, and treatment of diseases, such as cancer, autoimmune conditions, and infectious diseases.It serves the life sciences research, clinical diagnostics, and drug discovery applications.Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation has strategic collaborations with Genentech, Inc.


for the development, manufacture, and commercialization of neoantigen directed T cell therapies for the treatment of a range of cancers; and Microsoft Corporation to develop diagnostic tests for the early detection of various diseases from a single blood test.The company was formerly known as Adaptive TCR Corporation and changed its name to Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation in December 2011.Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

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1.b. Last Insights on ADPT

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's recent performance was driven by a Q1 earnings beat, with a loss of $0.20 per share versus the estimated loss of $0.28. The company's revenue also topped estimates, with a strong growth trend in its key metrics. Additionally, the consensus price target hints at a 26.5% upside potential, based on Wall Street analysts' expectations. The company's momentum stock status, as identified by analysts, suggests that it has the potential to outperform other medical stocks this year. The company's ability to maintain a strong growth trend, despite a Q1 loss, indicates a positive evolution of business conditions.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Adaptive Biotechnologies' Q3 Earnings: Strong Execution and Accelerating Momentum

Adaptive Biotechnologies reported a strong third quarter, with total company revenue reaching $94 million, representing a 102% increase year-over-year. The MRD business delivered significant growth, with revenue increasing 52% year-over-year to $56.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $7 million, reflecting strong sequential growth, and the MRD business became cash flow positive ahead of plan. The company's EPS loss was narrower than expected, at $-0.15 compared to estimates of $-0.16.

Publication Date: Nov -26

📋 Highlights
  • MRD Revenue Surge:: Q3 MRD revenue hit $56.8M (52% YoY), driven by 38% clonoSEQ test volume growth to 27,111 tests and U.S ASP rising 28% to $1,340.
  • Profitability Milestone:: Adjusted EBITDA reached $7M (strong sequential growth), with MRD business turning cash flow positive ahead of schedule.
  • Total Revenue Leap:: Q3 revenue soared $94M (102% YoY), partly fueled by $33.7M noncash revenue from Genentech amortization.
  • Guidance Raised:: Full-year MRD revenue now targets $202M–$207M (up from $190M–$200M), with opex cut to $335M–$340M.
  • Strategic Growth Drivers:: 45% of MRD tests now blood-based (achieved a quarter early), and EMR-integrated accounts grew 9% QoQ, outpacing non-integrated 6% growth.

MRD Business Performance

The MRD business continued to drive growth, with clonoSEQ test volume increasing 38% versus last year to 27,111 tests delivered. U.S. ASP grew 28% to over $1,340, and MRD Pharma revenue grew 11% year-over-year, inclusive of $6.5 million in milestones. Susan Bobulsky noted that the integration benefits, including democratizing ordering and reducing HCP workload, have contributed to the growth, with integrated account commercial volumes growing 9% quarter-over-quarter.

Guidance and Outlook

Adaptive Biotechnologies raised its full-year 2025 guidance, with MRD revenue expected to be $202 million to $207 million, up from the prior range of $190 million to $200 million. The company also tightened and lowered its total company operating expense guidance to $335 million to $340 million from the prior range of $335 million to $345 million. Chad Robins stated that all the underlying factors give them great confidence in the trajectory of the business in 2026 and beyond.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/S Ratio of 15.11, the market has already priced in significant growth expectations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 1.2%. Given the company's strong execution and accelerating momentum, it is likely that Adaptive Biotechnologies will continue to drive growth in the MRD business. The company's focus on blood-based testing, clinical studies, and clinical utility studies will be key drivers of future growth.

Conclusion on Valuation Metrics

Considering the valuation metrics, the company's P/E Ratio is -25.49, indicating that the market is expecting significant future growth to justify the current valuation. The EV/EBITDA ratio is -31.86, which suggests that the company's enterprise value is high relative to its EBITDA. The ROE and ROIC are both negative, indicating that the company is still investing heavily in its growth. Overall, the valuation metrics suggest that the market is pricing in significant growth expectations, and the company's strong execution and accelerating momentum will be key to justifying its valuation.

3. NewsRoom

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Adaptive Biotechnologies Announces Nearly 90 Abstracts Featuring clonoSEQ® MRD Testing Across a Range of Blood Cancers to be Presented at the 67th ASH Annual Meeting

Nov -24

Source: globenewswire.com

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Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation $ADPT Stock Position Reduced by Campbell & CO Investment Adviser LLC

Nov -17

Source: defenseworld.net

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Adaptive Biotechnologies to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences

Nov -06

Source: globenewswire.com

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Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

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Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Reports Q3 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimates

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

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Adaptive Biotechnologies Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -05

Source: globenewswire.com

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Adaptive Biotechnologies to Report Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results on November 5, 2025

Oct -15

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.64%)

6. Segments

Minimal Residual Disease - Service

Expected Growth: 12%

Adaptive Biotechnologies' Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) service growth is driven by increasing adoption in blood cancer diagnosis and monitoring, expanding test menu, and growing demand for personalized medicine. Additionally, partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and increasing awareness of MRD's clinical utility contribute to the 12% growth rate.

Immune Medicine - Collaboration

Expected Growth: 10%

Immune Medicine's 10% growth is driven by Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's collaboration, leveraging its proprietary immune profiling technology to identify novel therapeutic targets. This partnership accelerates drug discovery, enhances pipeline development, and expands market reach, ultimately driving revenue growth.

Immune Medicine - Service

Expected Growth: 13%

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's Immune Medicine service growth is driven by increasing demand for personalized medicine, advancements in immunotherapy, and rising incidence of diseases such as cancer and autoimmune disorders. Additionally, the company's proprietary immune profiling technology and partnerships with pharmaceutical companies contribute to its 13% growth.

7. Detailed Products

clonoSEQ

A diagnostic test that detects and monitors minimal residual disease (MRD) in patients with certain blood cancers, including acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), and multiple myeloma.

immunoSEQ

A platform that uses next-generation sequencing (NGS) to analyze the immune system's T-cell and B-cell receptors, providing insights into the immune response.

Mindera

A software platform that integrates with immunoSEQ to provide a comprehensive view of the immune system, enabling researchers to analyze and visualize immune response data.

LymphoSIGHT

A research-use-only test that analyzes the immune system's T-cell and B-cell receptors to understand the immune response to cancer and infectious diseases.

8. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation is moderate, as there are alternative technologies and products available in the market, but the company's unique sequencing-based approach provides a competitive advantage.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low, as Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's products and services are highly specialized and there are limited alternative options available, giving the company significant pricing power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate, as Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation relies on a few key suppliers for critical components, but the company's strong relationships and diversified supply chain mitigate the risk of supplier concentration.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high, as the biotechnology industry is rapidly evolving and new companies are emerging with innovative technologies, posing a significant threat to Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high, as Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation operates in a highly competitive industry with several established players, and the company must continually innovate and differentiate its products and services to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 31.23%
Debt Cost 6.02%
Equity Weight 68.77%
Equity Cost 10.29%
WACC 8.96%
Leverage 45.41%

11. Quality Control: Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Fortress Biotech

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Adaptive Biotechnologies

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Tonix Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
AnaptysBio

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Phathom Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
REGENXBIO

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

14.75$

Current Price

14.75$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows