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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Aemetis, Inc.operates as a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company in North America and India.It operates through three segments: California Ethanol, Dairy Renewable Natural Gas, and India Biodiesel.


The company focuses on the acquisition, development, and commercialization of negative carbon intensity products and technologies that replace traditional petroleum-based products.It sells biodiesel primarily to government oil marketing companies, transport companies, resellers, distributors, and private refiners through its own sales force and independent sales agents, as well as to brokers who resell the product to end-users.The company also produces and sells ethanol; and wet distillers grains, distillers corn oil, and condensed distillers solubles to dairies and feedlots as animal feed.


In addition, it produces dairy biogas; produces and sells high-grade alcohol and various feed products, as well as hand sanitizers; and researches and develops conversion technologies using waste feedstocks to produce biofuels and biochemicals.The company was formerly known as AE Biofuels, Inc.and changed its name to Aemetis, Inc.


in November 2011.Aemetis, Inc.was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on AMTX

Aemetis, Inc.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by the timing of LCFS credit and D3 RIN sales, which were completed at the end of Q1, resulting in a delayed revenue recognition. This timing issue likely affected the company's quarterly earnings, as revenue from these sales would have been recognized in Q1 rather than Q4. Additionally, the company's biogas monthly RNG production increased by 55% in March, but the impact of this growth on Q1 earnings is unclear.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Ametis' Q3 2025 Earnings: Operational Highlights and Strategic Advancements

Ametis reported revenues of $59.2 million for Q3 2025, marking a significant increase of $7 million from the previous quarter, primarily driven by biodiesel orders in India and stronger ethanol production and sales pricing. The company's operating loss improved sequentially due to higher volumes and lower SG&A expenses. The actual EPS came out at '-0.37', missing estimates at '-0.25'. The company's cash position stood at $5.6 million at quarter-end, after investing $4.1 million in carbon intensity reduction and dairy RNG production expansion.

Publication Date: Nov -30

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth: Q3 revenue rose to $59.2M, up $7M, driven by $14.5M in India biofuels and stronger ethanol prices.
  • IPO & Tax Credits: India subsidiary IPO planned for 2026 with $100–300M valuation; $83M in tax credits sold, $12M+ in process.
  • Production Expansion: RNG capacity to hit 500,000 MMBtu by 2025 (up 30% in Q3) and 1M MMBtu by 2026; ethanol plant to save 80% natural gas.
  • Debt Refinance: $118M debt at 5.1% to be refinanced in H1 2026, leveraging $70M+ in tax credit proceeds and 45Z credits.
  • California E15 Impact: E15 approval could drive 600M+ gallons/year demand, boosting ethanol pricing; 17% of CA refining capacity offline by 2026.

Operational Highlights

The company's California ethanol plant achieved a production rate of 14.7 million gallons, benefiting from higher grind rates due to favorable margins. Additionally, California Dairy Natural Gas recognized $4 million in revenue from 12 operating digesters using the CARB-approved LCFS pathway. India biofuels posted $14.5 million in revenues, contributing to the overall growth. As Eric McAfee mentioned, "We significantly increased biogas production capacity with a new multi-dairy digester coming online in September, increasing RNG production capacity by over 30%."

Growth Initiatives and Future Projects

Ametis is progressing with its growth initiatives, including the expansion of its RNG production capacity, expected to reach 500,000 MMBtus by the end of 2025 and 1 million MMBtu in 2026. The company is also nearing completion of its $30 million Mechanical Vapor Recompression system at its ethanol plant, which is expected to reduce natural gas use by 80% and add $32 million in annual cash flow. Furthermore, the company is planning to IPO its India subsidiary in early 2026, with a valuation range of $100 million to $300 million.

Valuation and Growth Expectations

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 134.3%. With a current P/S Ratio of 0.56, the stock appears to be reasonably valued considering the expected growth. However, the EV/EBITDA ratio stands at -8.11, indicating potential concerns regarding the company's profitability. The ROE is at 44.19%, while the ROIC is at -24.04%, suggesting that the company is generating returns for shareholders but struggling with operational profitability.

Debt Refinancing and IPO Plans

Ametis is refinancing its most expensive debt, totaling around $118 million, in the first half of 2026, supported by the 45Z production tax credit revenue. The company has multiple buyers interested in multi-year offtakes for 45Z production tax credits, which should facilitate the refinancing process. The IPO proceeds are expected to be utilized for refinancing U.S. debt and growth funding for India operations.

3. NewsRoom

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Aemetis Receives Authority to Construct Air Permits for MVR Project at California Ethanol Plant

Dec -02

Source: prismmediawire.com

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Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage On Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Q3 2025

Nov -14

Source: newsfilecorp.com

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Aemetis (AMTX) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

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Aemetis Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -06

Source: prismmediawire.com

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Ethic Inc. Invests $42,000 in Aemetis, Inc $AMTX

Nov -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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Aemetis to Review Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results on November 6, 2025

Oct -31

Source: prismmediawire.com

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Aemetis to Review Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results on November 6, 2025

Oct -31

Source: globenewswire.com

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Looking for a Fast-paced Momentum Stock at a Bargain? Consider Aemetis (AMTX)

Oct -22

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (14.06%)

6. Segments

California Ethanol

Expected Growth: 14.07%

Aemetis' California Ethanol segment growth of 14.07% is driven by increasing demand for low-carbon fuels, favorable regulatory environment, and strategic expansion of production capacity. Additionally, growing adoption of E15 and E85 blends, and rising sales of flex-fuel vehicles contribute to the segment's growth.

India Biodiesel

Expected Growth: 14.1%

India Biodiesel from Aemetis, Inc. growth driven by increasing demand for renewable energy, government incentives for biofuels, and rising crude oil prices. Additionally, Aemetis' strategic location in India, a large and growing market, and its efficient production process contribute to the 14.1% growth rate.

California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 13.38%

Aemetis' California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) growth is driven by increasing demand for low-carbon fuels, favorable government policies and incentives, and strategic partnerships with dairy farms. Additionally, Aemetis' biogas upgrading technology and expanding production capacity contribute to the 13.38% growth rate.

7. Detailed Products

Ethanol

Aemetis, Inc. produces ethanol, a biofuel used as a cleaner-burning alternative to gasoline. The company's ethanol is used as a blendstock for gasoline, helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels.

Biodiesel

Aemetis, Inc. produces biodiesel, a renewable energy source used as a substitute for petroleum-based diesel fuel. The company's biodiesel is used in transportation, industrial, and power generation applications.

Glycerin

Aemetis, Inc. produces glycerin, a byproduct of biodiesel production, used in a variety of applications including pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and food products.

Distiller's Corn Oil (DCO)

Aemetis, Inc. produces distiller's corn oil (DCO), a high-protein feed ingredient used in the production of animal feed.

Carbon Capture

Aemetis, Inc. offers carbon capture services, utilizing its patented technology to capture and utilize CO2 from industrial sources, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and generating revenue through the sale of captured CO2.

8. Aemetis, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Aemetis, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative renewable energy sources, but the company's focus on low-carbon fuels and chemicals reduces the likelihood of substitution.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the specialized nature of Aemetis, Inc.'s products and the lack of alternative suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium due to the availability of raw materials and the company's dependence on a few key suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high due to the growing demand for renewable energy and the relatively low barriers to entry in the industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is medium due to the presence of several established players in the industry, but Aemetis, Inc.'s focus on low-carbon fuels and chemicals differentiates it from competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 210.76%
Debt Cost 9.75%
Equity Weight -110.76%
Equity Cost 9.75%
WACC 9.75%
Leverage -190.28%

11. Quality Control: Aemetis, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Star

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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World Kinect

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Par Pacific

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Vertex Energy

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Clean Energy Fuels

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Aemetis

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 1.7

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.56$

Current Price

1.56$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows