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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.owns and operates energy and infrastructure businesses.The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics.


The Refining segment owns and operates three refineries that produces ultra-low sulfur diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, marine fuel, distillate, asphalt, low sulfur fuel oil, and other associated refined products primarily for consumption in Hawaii, Pacific Northwest, Wyoming, and South Dakota.The Retail segment operates 119 fuel retail outlets, which sell merchandise, such as soft drinks, prepared foods, and other sundries in Hawaii under the Hele, 76, and nomnom brands; and gasoline, diesel, and retail merchandise in Washington and Idaho under the Cenex, nomnom, and Zip Trip brand names.The Logistics segment owns and operates terminals, pipelines, a single point mooring, and trucking operations to distribute refined products throughout the island of Oahu, Maui, Hawaii, Molokai, and Kauai.


It also leases marine vessels; owns and operates a crude oil pipeline gathering system, a refined products pipeline, storage facilities, and loading racks in Wyoming; and a jet fuel storage facility and pipeline that serves Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota.In addition, this segment owns and operates a marine terminal, a unit train-capable rail loading terminal, storage facilities, a truck rack, and a proprietary pipeline that serves Joint Base Lewis McChord.The company was formerly known as Par Petroleum Corporation and changed its name to Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.


in October 2015.Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on PARR

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s recent performance was driven by strong Q3 earnings, with the company reporting $5.95 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.98 per share. Piper Sandler upgraded the stock, raising its price target from $44.00 to $62.00, citing an overweight rating. Additionally, Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd purchased a new position in the company, acquiring 53,498 shares. The company's solid financial results and positive analyst sentiment have contributed to its recent momentum.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Par Pacific's Q3 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Par Pacific reported a robust third-quarter performance, with adjusted EBITDA of $372 million and adjusted EPS of $5.95 per share, significantly beating estimates of $1.98. The company's Refining segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $338 million, driven by record throughput of 198,000 barrels per day and maximized logistics system utilization. The Hawaii, Montana, and Wyoming refineries achieved margin capture rates of 111%, 93%, and 91%, respectively, contributing to the strong financial performance.

Publication Date: Dec -02

📋 Highlights
  • Record Throughput and Financial Performance:: Achieved 198,000 barrels/day throughput, $372M adjusted EBITDA, and $5.95 adjusted EPS, including $203M gain from small refinery exemptions.
  • Refining Segment Margins:: Generated $338M EBITDA with Hawaii capturing 111% margins, while Washington faced lower 69% due to jet-to-diesel discounts.
  • Strong Q4 Outlook:: Combined index of $15.55/boe expected in October, driven by tight supply-demand and geopolitical disruptions.
  • Balance Sheet Strength:: $735M liquidity and $642M gross debt, with $100M from Hawaii Renewables joint venture boosting funds.
  • Montana Cost Efficiency:: Operating costs below base-case assumptions post-turnaround, targeting $10/barrel annual OpEx reduction.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was a key driver of its financial results, with high distillate yield and a focus on max diesel mode positioning it well in the current market environment. Par Pacific's complexity configuration and location enable it to capitalize on the trend of a lighter average barrel in the world, ensuring adequate intermediates to fill downstream processing units and maximize distillate yield.

Outlook and Guidance

Par Pacific expects a strong fourth-quarter outlook, driven by tight fundamental supply and demand balances and heightened geopolitical disruptions, with a combined index averaging $15.55 per barrel in October. The company plans to conduct a turnaround in Hawaii and a small planned outage in Washington in 2026, while deferring the Wyoming turnaround.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 9.93 and EV/EBITDA of 4.92, Par Pacific's valuation appears reasonable, considering its strong financial performance and growth prospects. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -10.1%, but the company's focus on increasing mid-cycle earnings power and evaluating growth opportunities positions it well for long-term success. The company's strong balance sheet, with gross term debt of $642 million and liquidity of $735 million, provides flexibility to pursue growth initiatives and return capital to shareholders.

Return on Investment and Capital Structure

Par Pacific's ROIC of 10.33% and ROE of 19.47% indicate a strong return on investment, while its Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 0.54 suggests a manageable debt burden. The company's capital structure and return on investment metrics support its ability to generate strong cash flows and invest in growth initiatives.

3. NewsRoom

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Is Par Pacific's Refining Business More Resilient & Competitive?

Dec -05

Source: zacks.com

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Is the Current Oil Price Favorable for Par Pacific's Refining Business?

Dec -03

Source: zacks.com

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Creative Planning Has $1.34 Million Stock Holdings in Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. $PARR

Nov -29

Source: defenseworld.net

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5 Top Stocks For AI Fatigue

Nov -28

Source: seekingalpha.com

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5 Broker-Liked Stocks to Keep an Eye on Amid the Current Market Swings

Nov -24

Source: zacks.com

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Par Pacific: A Hidden Small-Cap Refiner Poised For Solid Gains

Nov -21

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Is Par Pacific (PARR) Outperforming Other Oils-Energy Stocks This Year?

Nov -18

Source: zacks.com

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Par Pacific (NYSE:PARR) Sets New 1-Year High Following Analyst Upgrade

Nov -18

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.08%)

6. Segments

Refining

Expected Growth: 4.0%

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s refining segment growth of 4.0% is driven by increasing demand for refined products, strategic acquisitions, and optimization of refining operations. Additionally, the company's focus on high-margin products, such as diesel and jet fuel, contributes to its growth. Furthermore, the company's ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions, including low crude oil prices, also supports its refining segment growth.

Retail

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s Retail segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing demand for convenience stores, strategic acquisitions, and expansion of retail operations in Hawaii and Texas. Additionally, the company's focus on improving customer experience, investing in technology, and optimizing store layouts have contributed to the growth.

Corporate, Eliminations and Other

Expected Growth: 4.0%

Corporate: Cost savings initiatives and strategic investments drive growth. Eliminations: Intersegment sales elimination and optimization of logistics. Other: Growth in renewable energy and carbon capture projects, and increased demand for specialty products.

Logistics

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s Logistics segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing demand for refined products, strategic acquisitions, and expansion of its terminaling and transportation services. Additionally, the company's focus on optimizing its logistics network, improving operational efficiencies, and investing in digitalization initiatives have contributed to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Refined Products

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. refines and markets petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and other specialty products.

Crude Oil

The company purchases and sells crude oil, which is used as a feedstock for refining and marketing of petroleum products.

LPG and Other Refined Products

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. also markets and sells liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and other refined products, such as asphalt and sulfur.

Renewable Fuels

The company produces and markets renewable fuels, including biodiesel and ethanol, which are blended with petroleum products to create cleaner-burning fuels.

Marine Fuels

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. supplies marine fuels, including bunker fuel and marine diesel, to the shipping and maritime industries.

Lubricants and Petrochemicals

The company markets and sells lubricants and petrochemicals, which are used in a variety of industrial and commercial applications.

8. Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the refining and marketing of petroleum products, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. The company's products are largely commoditized, and customers may switch to alternative energy sources or competitors' products if prices are more attractive.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. has a diverse customer base, including commercial and retail customers. The company's customers do not have significant bargaining power, as they are not concentrated and do not have the ability to influence prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. relies on a few large suppliers for its crude oil and other raw materials. While the company has some bargaining power due to its scale, suppliers may still exert some pressure on prices and delivery terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The refining and marketing of petroleum products is a capital-intensive industry with significant barriers to entry. New entrants would need to invest heavily in infrastructure and technology, making it difficult for them to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The refining and marketing of petroleum products is a highly competitive industry, with several established players competing for market share. Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. faces intense competition from larger and more established companies, which may exert downward pressure on prices and margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 49.71%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 50.29%
Equity Cost 13.82%
WACC 8.91%
Leverage 98.84%

11. Quality Control: Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Star

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 9.0

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CrossAmerica Partners

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 9.0

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World Kinect

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.0

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Delek US Holdings

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.0

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Par Pacific

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Aemetis

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 1.7

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

43.7$

Current Price

43.7$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows