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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of medicines in the field of cellular metabolism and adjacent areas of biology.The company offers PYRUKYND (mitapivat) an activator of both wild-type and a variety of mutant pyruvate kinase, PK, enzymes for the treatment of hemolytic anemias; and AG-946 that is in Phase I clinical study for treating hemolytic anemias and other indications.Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.


was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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1.b. Last Insights on AGIO

Agios Pharmaceuticals' recent performance was negatively impacted by mixed phase III RISE UP data for mitapivat in sickle cell disease, which showed a hemoglobin boost but no significant reduction in pain crises. The company's Q3 loss was narrower than expected, driven by Pyrukynd revenue growth. However, investor concerns were raised due to investigations by Pomerantz LLP on behalf of investors. A recent FDA approval of Aqvesme for anemia in alpha and beta thalassemia could be a positive catalyst, with a strong cash position providing ample runway for commercialization.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Agios Pharmaceuticals' Strong Momentum and Growth Prospects

Agios Pharmaceuticals reported a strong financial performance in the fourth quarter and full year 2025, with PYRUKYND delivering $20 million in net revenue in the quarter, bringing full-year 2025 revenue to $54 million. The company's actual EPS came out at '-1.86', beating estimates at '-1.97'. The revenue growth was driven by an 86% increase in PYRUKYND revenue compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 145.2%, indicating a significant increase in sales. The company's valuation metrics show a 'P/S Ratio' of 30.99, indicating a high revenue multiple, while the 'P/E Ratio' is -4.04, reflecting the company's current loss-making status.

Publication Date: Feb -20

📋 Highlights
  • 2026 Strategic Priorities: AQVESME U.S. launch for thalassemia, PK franchise expansion, and pipeline advancement, aiming to drive $45–$50M in 2026 PK deficiency revenue.
  • 2025 Revenue Growth: PYRUKYND generated $20M in Q4 (up 86% YoY) and $54M annually, with U.S. sales up 50% YoY to $16M.
  • R&D Milestones: Pre-sNDA meeting for mitapivat (sickle cell) in Q1 2026, Phase II Tebapivat data in sickle cell (2025) and MDS (2026 H1), and AQVESME’s 10–12 week prescription-to-revenue lag.
  • Commercial Progress: AQVESME launch achieved early traction with prescriptions from transfusion-dependent patients and smooth REMS compliance; no payer hurdles observed.
  • Cost Management: SG&A expenses to scale based on regulatory timelines, leveraging existing infrastructure for PKD/thalassemia; gross-to-net assumed at 10–20%, similar to PKD.

Commercial Performance and Launch Updates

The company's commercial performance was strong, with PYRUKYND delivering $16 million in net revenue in the U.S. in the fourth quarter, up 50% year-over-year. The U.S. thalassemia launch is underway, with AQVESME receiving FDA approval just before the end of the year. Tsveta Milanova, Chief Commercial Officer, mentioned that the company is pleased with the early stages of the launch, seeing prescriptions from transfusion-dependent patients and very engaged symptomatic nontransfusion-dependent patients.

Pipeline Progress and Regulatory Updates

The company is making progress in its pipeline, with the Phase II Tebapivat trial in sickle cell disease expected to deliver top-line data later this year. The company is also preparing for the pre-sNDA meeting for mitapivat in sickle cell disease. Dr. Sarah Gheuens, Chief Medical Officer, mentioned that the RISE UP data will be used to model the anticipated hemoglobin response leading to clinical benefit.

Financial Guidance and Outlook

The company guided to a breakeven point in revenue for PKD and thalassemia and expects U.S. PK deficiency revenues to be in the range of $45 million to $50 million in 2026. Cecilia Jones, Chief Financial Officer, stated that the team will gate and manage spend based on regulatory discussions and timing, leveraging their existing infrastructure for PKD and thalassemia.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a 'P/S Ratio' of 30.99 and an estimated revenue growth rate of 145.2% next year, the company's valuation appears to be pricing in significant growth prospects. The company's 'EV/EBITDA' ratio is -3.71, indicating a negative enterprise value to EBITDA. The 'ROE (%)' is -31.07, reflecting the company's current loss-making status. As the company continues to execute on its pipeline and commercial launches, investors will be watching for progress on its growth prospects.

3. NewsRoom

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Agios Stock Down 16% in a Year as Fund Cuts Stake by $5.6 Million After 50% November Crash

Feb -17

Source: fool.com

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Agios Pharmaceuticals Incurs Narrower-Than-Expected Q4 Loss

Feb -13

Source: zacks.com

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Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -12

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) Reports Q4 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimates

Feb -12

Source: zacks.com

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Agios Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results and Provides Business Update

Feb -12

Source: globenewswire.com

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Agios to Host Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast on February 12 at 8:00 a.m. ET

Jan -26

Source: globenewswire.com

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Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) Presents at 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Transcript

Jan -14

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Agios Outlines 2026 Strategic Priorities and Key Milestones to Accelerate Rare Disease Portfolio Growth

Jan -12

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.40%)

6. Segments

Medicines for Cellular Metabolism

Expected Growth: 12.4%

Growing demand for targeted cancer therapies, increasing prevalence of rare genetic disorders, and Agios' innovative approach to regulating cellular metabolism drive market growth.

7. Detailed Products

TIBSOVO

TIBSOVO is an isocitrate dehydrogenase-1 (IDH1) inhibitor indicated for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with an IDH1 mutation.

IDHIFA

IDHIFA is an isocitrate dehydrogenase-2 (IDH2) inhibitor indicated for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory AML with an IDH2 mutation.

ivosidenib

Ivosidenib is an IDH1 inhibitor being developed for the treatment of AML and other blood cancers.

enasidenib

Enasidenib is an IDH2 inhibitor being developed for the treatment of AML and other blood cancers.

8. Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operates in a niche market with limited substitutes, but there are ongoing research and development efforts to discover new treatments, which could potentially threaten the company's products.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. sells its products primarily to wholesalers, distributors, and specialty pharmacies, which have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong product portfolio and limited alternatives.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. relies on a limited number of suppliers for raw materials and services, which could lead to some bargaining power, but the company's strong relationships and contracts mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The biotechnology industry has high barriers to entry, including significant research and development costs, regulatory hurdles, and the need for specialized expertise, making it difficult for new entrants to compete with Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operates in a highly competitive market with several established players, and the company faces intense competition for market share, pricing, and innovation.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 8.15%
Debt Cost 4.24%
Equity Weight 91.85%
Equity Cost 7.91%
WACC 7.61%
Leverage 8.88%

11. Quality Control: Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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SpringWorks Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 2.0

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Avidity Biosciences

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.3

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Cytokinetics

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 0.4

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 1.7

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Sarepta Therapeutics

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 8.7

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Agios Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Crinetics Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 1.1

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

29.25$

Current Price

29.25$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows