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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of medicines in the field of cellular metabolism and adjacent areas of biology.The company offers PYRUKYND (mitapivat) an activator of both wild-type and a variety of mutant pyruvate kinase, PK, enzymes for the treatment of hemolytic anemias; and AG-946 that is in Phase I clinical study for treating hemolytic anemias and other indications.Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.


was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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1.b. Last Insights on AGIO

Agios Pharmaceuticals' recent performance was negatively impacted by a mixed phase III trial result for its sickle cell disease drug, mitapivat. The trial met one primary endpoint, showing a hemoglobin boost, but failed to demonstrate a statistically significant reduction in pain crises. Additionally, multiple investor alerts were issued regarding potential claims on behalf of investors, investigating allegations against the company. The company's Q3 loss also narrowed compared to expectations. A "Moderate Buy" consensus rating from seven analysts was reported.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Agios Pharmaceuticals' Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Quarter Ahead of Key Catalysts

Agios Pharmaceuticals reported a net revenue of $12.9 million for Q3 2025, representing a 44% increase from Q3 2024 and a 3% increase from Q2 2025. The company's actual EPS came out at '-1.78', beating estimates of '-1.93'. The strong commercial execution in pyruvate kinase deficiency (PKD) ahead of potential U.S. approval for thalassemia drove the revenue growth. The company's cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities stood at approximately $1.3 billion, providing a solid financial foundation.

Publication Date: Nov -03

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q3 2025 net revenue reached $12.9M, reflecting 44% YoY growth and 3% QoQ growth.
  • Cash Reserves:: Ended quarter with $1.3B in cash, supporting U.S. launches and pipeline advancement.
  • Regulatory Milestones:: PYRUKYND’s thalassemia PDUFA date set for December 7, 2025, with positive CHMP opinion in Europe.
  • Clinical Progress:: RISE UP Phase III trial for sickle cell disease completed enrollment; top-line data expected by year-end.
  • Pipeline Expansion:: Tebapivat Phase IIb in lower-risk MDS completed enrollment; top-line data anticipated early 2026.

Financial Performance and Valuation

The company's financial performance is expected to improve significantly, with analysts estimating a revenue growth of 146.4% next year. The current valuation metrics indicate that the stock is trading at a P/S Ratio of 56.29, EV/EBITDA of -5.42, and a P/E Ratio of -6.27. These metrics suggest that the market is pricing in significant growth expectations, and the stock may be sensitive to any developments that impact the company's growth prospects.

Pipeline Progress and Upcoming Catalysts

Agios is making progress in its rare disease pipeline, with multiple high-value catalysts expected in the coming months. The company is awaiting a PDUFA date of December 7 for thalassemia, and top-line results from the RISE UP Phase III trial of PYRUKYND in sickle cell disease are expected by year-end. Additionally, the company has received a positive CHMP opinion recommending PYRUKYND for marketing authorization in Europe for adults with thalassemia. As the company noted, "the review process for thalassemia is ongoing, with an extended PDUFA date of December 7," highlighting the potential for approval in the near term.

Commercial Strategy and Partnerships

Agios has built a capital-efficient global commercial model, prioritizing investments in potential U.S. launches. The company has executed partnerships with NewBridge Pharmaceuticals in the GCC and Avanzanite Bioscience in Europe to support the launch of PYRUKYND in these regions. The company is working closely with its partners to prepare for potential approvals and launches, with a focus on delivering long-term shareholder value.

Future Prospects and Investment Thesis

With a strong financial position, a robust pipeline, and a capital-efficient commercial model, Agios is well-positioned to deliver on potential U.S. launches and advance its existing clinical programs. The company's focus on rare diseases with transformative potential and its efforts to expand and diversify its pipeline through strategic business development opportunities are expected to drive long-term growth and shareholder value.

3. NewsRoom

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Fisher Asset Management LLC Sells 81,799 Shares of Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. $AGIO

Dec -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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AGIO Stock Hits 52-Week Low on Mixed Sickle Cell Disease Study Results

Nov -20

Source: zacks.com

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Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) Discusses Topline Results from RISE UP Phase 3 Trial of Mitapivat in Sickle Cell Disease Transcript

Nov -19

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Why Shares in Agios Pharmaceuticals Got Crushed Today

Nov -19

Source: fool.com

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Why Is Agios Pharmaceuticals Stock Sinking Today?

Nov -19

Source: benzinga.com

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Agios Pharma reports mixed results in late-stage study for sickle cell disease drug

Nov -19

Source: reuters.com

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Agios Announces Topline Results from RISE UP Phase 3 Trial of Mitapivat in Sickle Cell Disease

Nov -19

Source: globenewswire.com

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Analysts Set Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGIO) Price Target at $57.25

Nov -04

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.40%)

6. Segments

Medicines for Cellular Metabolism

Expected Growth: 12.4%

Growing demand for targeted cancer therapies, increasing prevalence of rare genetic disorders, and Agios' innovative approach to regulating cellular metabolism drive market growth.

7. Detailed Products

TIBSOVO

TIBSOVO is an isocitrate dehydrogenase-1 (IDH1) inhibitor indicated for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with an IDH1 mutation.

IDHIFA

IDHIFA is an isocitrate dehydrogenase-2 (IDH2) inhibitor indicated for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory AML with an IDH2 mutation.

ivosidenib

Ivosidenib is an IDH1 inhibitor being developed for the treatment of AML and other blood cancers.

enasidenib

Enasidenib is an IDH2 inhibitor being developed for the treatment of AML and other blood cancers.

8. Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operates in a niche market with limited substitutes, but there are ongoing research and development efforts to discover new treatments, which could potentially threaten the company's products.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. sells its products primarily to wholesalers, distributors, and specialty pharmacies, which have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong product portfolio and limited alternatives.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. relies on a limited number of suppliers for raw materials and services, which could lead to some bargaining power, but the company's strong relationships and contracts mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The biotechnology industry has high barriers to entry, including significant research and development costs, regulatory hurdles, and the need for specialized expertise, making it difficult for new entrants to compete with Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operates in a highly competitive market with several established players, and the company faces intense competition for market share, pricing, and innovation.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 8.15%
Debt Cost 4.24%
Equity Weight 91.85%
Equity Cost 7.91%
WACC 7.61%
Leverage 8.88%

11. Quality Control: Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
SpringWorks Therapeutics

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 5.3

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Agios Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Cytokinetics

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 0.4

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 1.7

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Sarepta Therapeutics

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Avidity Biosciences

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Crinetics Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 2.5/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 1.1

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

27.73$

Current Price

27.73$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows