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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, underwrites workers' compensation insurance in the United States.The company's workers' compensation insurance policies provide benefits to injured employees for temporary or permanent disability, death, and medical and hospital expenses.It serves small to mid-sized employers engaged in hazardous industries, including construction, trucking, logging and lumber, agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications, and maritime.


The company was incorporated in 1985 and is based in DeRidder, Louisiana.

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1.b. Last Insights on AMSF

AMERISAFE's recent performance was negatively driven by a decline in earnings per share (EPS) of 8.8% year-over-year, despite beating Q4 earnings estimates of $0.60 per share. The company's EPS of $0.67 was lower than the $0.74 reported in the same quarter last year. Additionally, the company's increasing dividend payout, which was raised by 5.4% to 39 cents per share, may signal a shift in priorities towards shareholder returns rather than investing in growth initiatives."

1.c. Company Highlights

2. AMERISAFE's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

AMERISAFE reported a net income of $13.8 million or $0.72 per diluted share, with operating net income of $10.6 million or $0.55 per diluted share, in line with analyst estimates. The company's gross written premiums grew 7.2% to a significant level, driven by a 10.6% increase in voluntary premiums. The expense ratio was 31.1%, reflecting ongoing investment in the company's growth. The combined ratio for the quarter was 90.6%, indicating a profitable underwriting performance. As Janelle Frost, President and CEO, noted, "disciplined underwriting, robust new business production, and strong renewal performance" were key drivers of the growth.

Publication Date: Nov -12

📋 Highlights
  • 20.5% Return on Average Equity:: AMERISAFE achieved a 20.5% ROAE, reflecting strong capital efficiency and disciplined underwriting strategies.
  • 10.6% Voluntary Premium Growth:: Voluntary premiums surged 10.6%, driven by robust new business and renewal performance, outpacing the 7.2% gross written premium growth.
  • $8.9M Favorable Reserve Development:: Prior accident year reserves improved by $8.9M, easing liability concerns and boosting earnings stability.
  • 31.1% Expense Ratio:: Operating costs stabilized at 31.1% of premiums, balancing growth investments with cost control.
  • 2.7% Policy Count Increase:: Policy count grew 2.7% YoY, with 11% annualized growth, indicating broad-based market expansion and client retention success.

Underwriting Performance

The company's underwriting performance was a highlight, with a combined ratio of 90.6% and favorable reserve development of $8.9 million on prior accident years. The growth in voluntary premiums was broad-based, with a 2.7% increase in policy count and 11% year-over-year growth in policy count. The company's focus on claims handling experience and ease of doing business is contributing to the growth, as Frost mentioned that "claims handling experience and ease of doing business are contributing to the growth."

Investment Portfolio

The investment portfolio experienced a 12.3% decrease in net investment income to $6.6 million, with a portfolio tax equivalent book yield of 3.9%, relatively flat from the prior year quarter. The unrealized gain for equity securities was $4.1 million, driven by strength in the U.S. equity market.

Valuation and Outlook

AMERISAFE's valuation metrics indicate a relatively attractive profile, with a Price-to-Book Ratio of 0.67 and a Dividend Yield of 11.06%. The company's return on equity (ROE) was 10.25%, and return on invested capital (ROIC) was 16.18%. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.2%. The current valuation multiples suggest that the market has already priced in a certain level of growth, but the dividend yield is attractive for income investors.

Growth Prospects

The company's growth prospects appear promising, driven by its disciplined underwriting and strong renewal performance. Frost noted that the company is seeing steady state mid-single-digit declines in approved state loss costs for 2026, which should help maintain the company's underwriting profitability. The competitive landscape remains intense, but AMERISAFE's consistency and stability are among its value propositions for agents.

3. NewsRoom

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Geode Capital Management LLC Purchases 7,420 Shares of AMERISAFE, Inc. $AMSF

Nov -29

Source: defenseworld.net

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AMERISAFE, Inc. $AMSF Shares Bought by Creative Planning

Nov -27

Source: defenseworld.net

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Bank of New York Mellon Corp Cuts Stock Holdings in AMERISAFE, Inc. $AMSF

Nov -21

Source: defenseworld.net

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AMERISAFE Announces Resignation of Chief Financial Officer

Nov -03

Source: businesswire.com

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AMERISAFE Q3 Earnings Met Estimates, New Business Growth Aids

Oct -31

Source: zacks.com

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AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Amerisafe (AMSF) Q3 Earnings Meet Estimates

Oct -29

Source: zacks.com

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AMERISAFE Declares Special Dividend of $1.00 Per Share and Regular Quarterly Dividend

Oct -29

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.43%)

6. Segments

Insurance and Related Activities

Expected Growth: 7.43%

Amerisafe's 7.43% growth in Insurance and Related Activities is driven by increasing demand for workers' compensation insurance, expansion into new markets, and a strong underwriting discipline. Additionally, the company's focus on providing specialized insurance products and services to high-hazard industries, such as construction and manufacturing, has contributed to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Workers' Compensation Insurance

Provides coverage for work-related injuries and illnesses, helping employers protect their employees and manage the costs of workplace accidents.

Risk Management Services

Offers a range of services to help employers identify and mitigate workplace hazards, reducing the risk of accidents and injuries.

Safety Consulting Services

Provides expert guidance and support to help employers develop and implement effective safety programs and policies.

Claims Management Services

Provides expert claims management services to help employers manage and resolve workers' compensation claims efficiently and effectively.

Compliance Services

Offers compliance services to help employers navigate complex workers' compensation regulations and ensure compliance with state and federal laws.

8. AMERISAFE, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for AMERISAFE, Inc. is low because the company operates in a niche market, providing workers' compensation insurance to small and medium-sized businesses, which limits the availability of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for AMERISAFE, Inc. is medium because while customers have some negotiating power, the company's specialized products and services limit the ability of customers to switch to alternative providers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for AMERISAFE, Inc. is low because the company is not heavily dependent on a few key suppliers, and there are many alternative suppliers available.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for AMERISAFE, Inc. is high because the workers' compensation insurance market is attractive and has low barriers to entry, making it easier for new companies to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for AMERISAFE, Inc. is medium because while there is some competition in the workers' compensation insurance market, the company's specialized products and services help to differentiate it from competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 0.00%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 100.00%
Equity Cost 5.50%
WACC 5.50%
Leverage 0.00%

11. Quality Control: AMERISAFE, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Investors Title

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Employers Holdings

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Tiptree

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
AMERISAFE

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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MBIA

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 1.3

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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ICC Holdings

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

37.48$

Current Price

37.48$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows