Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

MBIA Inc.provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets.It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments.


The company issues financial guarantees for municipal bonds, including tax-exempt and taxable indebtedness of the U.S. political subdivisions and territories, as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, student loan issuers, housing authorities, and other similar agencies and obligations issued by private entities.It also insures the non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance, including asset-backed obligations; and sovereign-related and sub-sovereign bonds, utilities, and privately issued bonds used for the financing of projects that include toll roads, bridges, airports, public transportation facilities, and other types of infrastructure projects, as well as offers third-party reinsurance services.MBIA Inc.


was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on MBI

Here is a 90-word analysis of the negative drivers behind MBIA Inc.'s recent stock performance: MBIA Inc.'s Q4 earnings release revealed a quarterly loss of $0.48 per share, missing estimates and worsening from a year-ago loss of $0.16 per share. The company's high loss per share and revenue miss are likely to weigh on the stock. Additionally, the lack of positive earnings estimate revisions may hinder the stock's upside potential. The company's weak Q4 results and lack of upward momentum in earnings estimates may continue to pressure the stock.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. MBIA's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look at Financial Performance

MBIA reported a consolidated GAAP net loss of $8 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to a consolidated GAAP net loss of $56 million for the third quarter of 2024. The company's actual EPS came out at -$0.15, missing estimates of -$0.03. Revenue growth is expected to decline by 15.1% next year, indicating a challenging environment for the company. National's statutory net income was $73 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to statutory net income of $19 million for the third quarter of 2024. The improvement in net income was primarily due to lower losses and LAE associated with National's PREPA exposure.

Publication Date: Nov -20

📋 Highlights
  • Reduced Net Loss:: Q3 2025 consolidated GAAP net loss of $8M vs. $56M in Q3 2024, driven by lower PREPA-related losses and $374M in claim sales.
  • PREPA Exposure Update:: $425M remaining gross par outstanding; higher recovery estimates on remaining National’s PREPA exposure.
  • National’s Statutory Net Income:: $73M in Q3 2025 (vs. $19M in Q3 2024), reflecting improved performance despite MBIA Insurance Corp.’s $25M statutory loss.
  • Claims Paying Resources:: $1.5B for National and $326M for MBIA Insurance Corp. as of September 30, 2025.
  • Board Delays:: Reduced Board (4 members) may delay decisions (e.g., confirmation plan in bankruptcy court requiring 5 members) due to 3 terminated members’ legal case.

PREPA Exposure and Claims Paying Resources

National's PREPA exposure now amounts to $425 million of gross par outstanding, down from previous quarters due to the sale of $374 million of National's PREPA-related bankruptcy claims. The company estimated higher recoveries on National's remaining PREPA exposure, indicating a positive trend in managing its distressed assets. Claims paying resources were $1.5 billion for National and $326 million for MBIA Insurance Corp, providing a cushion against potential losses. As William Fallon noted, "the company had reduced uncertainty around Puerto Rico and that the potential buyers for National would be more inclined to have meaningful conversations."

Valuation and Capital Position

MBIA's Price-to-Book Ratio stands at -0.17, indicating that the company's market value is below its book value. The Free Cash Flow Yield is 13.22%, suggesting that the company has a reasonable cash flow generation capability. National's statutory capital as of September 30, 2025, was $994 million, while MBIA Insurance Corp's statutory capital was $79 million. The company's capital position is stable, but the current Board composition being short-handed may delay certain decisions.

Potential Sale of National and Implications

The company is exploring the potential sale of National, and according to William Fallon, "the company would announce if they start a sale process and that they do not need to have a formal process to talk to potential buyers." The sale could simplify the company's structure and unlock value for shareholders. However, the current setup, including the holding company's outstanding obligations, may raise questions from potential buyers. As William Fallon explained, "MBIA Insurance Corp. is not bankrupt, has substantial surplus, and meets regulatory thresholds."

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Kahn Brothers' Strategic Moves: GSK PLC Sees a -3.08% Impact

Nov -12

Source: gurufocus.com

Card image cap

MBIA Inc. (MBI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

MBIA (MBI) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -05

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

MBIA Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -04

Source: businesswire.com

Card image cap

MBIA Inc. Investor Conference Call to Discuss Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Scheduled for Wednesday, November 5 at 8:00 A.M. Eastern Time

Oct -29

Source: businesswire.com

Card image cap

MBIA Inc. (MBI) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aug -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

MBIA Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Aug -06

Source: businesswire.com

Card image cap

MBIA Inc. Investor Conference Call to Discuss Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Scheduled for Thursday, August 7 at 8:00 A.M. Eastern Time

Jul -31

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.67%)

6. Segments

U.S. Public Finance Insurance

Expected Growth: 4.83%

MBIA Inc.'s U.S. Public Finance Insurance segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing municipal bond issuance, rising demand for credit enhancement, and a strong pipeline of new business opportunities. Additionally, the company's diversified portfolio, improved risk management, and cost savings initiatives contribute to its growth momentum.

International and Structured Finance Insurance

Expected Growth: 8.9%

MBIA Inc.'s International and Structured Finance Insurance segment growth of 8.9% is driven by increasing demand for credit enhancement products, expansion into new markets, and a growing need for risk management solutions. Additionally, the segment benefits from a strong brand reputation, diversified revenue streams, and a solid capital position, enabling it to capitalize on emerging opportunities.

General Corporate

Expected Growth: 6.4%

MBIA Inc.'s General Corporate segment growth of 6.4% is driven by increasing demand for insurance products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's efforts to diversify its revenue streams, improve operational efficiency, and invest in digital transformation have contributed to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Municipal Bond Insurance

MBIA provides financial guarantee insurance for municipal bonds, which helps to enhance the credit quality of the bonds and reduces the risk of default for investors.

Structured Finance Insurance

MBIA provides financial guarantee insurance for structured finance transactions, such as asset-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations.

Corporate Finance Insurance

MBIA provides financial guarantee insurance for corporate debt, including bonds and loans.

Reinsurance

MBIA provides reinsurance for other insurance companies, helping them to manage their risk and increase their capacity to write new business.

8. MBIA Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

MBIA Inc. operates in the financial services industry, which is characterized by a moderate level of substitutes. While there are alternative investment options available, MBIA's products and services are differentiated, reducing the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

MBIA Inc.'s customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong brand reputation and diversified product offerings. This reduces the bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

MBIA Inc. relies on a diverse range of suppliers, reducing the bargaining power of individual suppliers. However, the company's dependence on a few key suppliers increases the bargaining power of these suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The financial services industry has high barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and capital requirements. This reduces the threat of new entrants for MBIA Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The financial services industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. MBIA Inc. faces intense rivalry from competitors, which increases the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 194.90%
Debt Cost 6.27%
Equity Weight -94.90%
Equity Cost 10.21%
WACC 2.53%
Leverage -205.37%

11. Quality Control: MBIA Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Investors Title

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Tiptree

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
AMERISAFE

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
MBIA

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 1.3

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
ICC Holdings

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Ambac Financial Group

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

7.58$

Current Price

7.58$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows