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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Amplify Energy Corp.engages in the acquisition, development, exploitation, and production of oil and natural gas properties in the United States.The company's properties consist of operated and non-operated working interests in producing and undeveloped leasehold acreage, as well as working interests in identified producing wells located in Oklahoma, the Rockies, federal waters offshore Southern California, East Texas/North Louisiana, and Eagle Ford.


As of December 31, 2021, it had total estimated proved reserves of approximately 121.2 million barrels of oil equivalent; and 2,417 gross producing wells.The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on AMPY

Amplify Energy Corp.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by a series of challenges. The company's Q4 2024 earnings and revenue fell short of expectations, with a quarterly earnings of $0.13 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.25 per share. This earnings miss was a significant setback for the company, which has been struggling to maintain its growth trajectory. Furthermore, the company's proposed merger with Juniper Capital's upstream Rocky Mountain portfolio companies has been met with skepticism, with some investors expressing concerns about the deal's dilutive effects on Amplify's stock. The merger agreement has been amended to provide for Juniper to contribute an incremental $10 million of cash to reduce the net debt of the combined companies, but this move has not been enough to alleviate concerns about the deal's viability. Additionally, Amplify's management has announced its intention to adjourn the Special Meeting of Stockholders, which has raised questions about the company's commitment to the merger. The meeting was initially scheduled for April 14, 2025, but it has been adjourned until April 23, 2025, without any voting or other matters being conducted. The company's fixed income investor meetings, which were held on March 31, 2025, have also raised concerns about Amplify's financial health. The meetings were intended to discuss a potential new USD-denominated, 5-year senior unsecured bond issue, but the outcome of these discussions remains unclear. Overall, Amplify Energy Corp.'s recent performance has been marred by a series of challenges, including an earnings miss, concerns about the proposed merger, and uncertainty surrounding the company's financial health.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Amplify Energy Delivers Strong Q1 2025 Results Amid Challenging Oil Prices

Amplify Energy reported a solid financial performance in Q1 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of $19.4 million and operating cash flow of $25.5 million. Despite a net loss of $5.9 million, the company posted an adjusted net income of $3.8 million, reflecting its ability to navigate a volatile commodity price environment. The earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.1, slightly below analyst estimates of $0.11. However, the company's strong cash flow generation and prudent capital allocation underscore its resilience. As CEO Marty Phillips noted, "Our focus on optimizing operations and maintaining financial discipline has allowed us to deliver solid results despite lower oil prices."

Publication Date: May -13

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Q1 Financials: Reported $19.4M adjusted EBITDA and $25.5M operating cash flow, with production at 17,900 BOE/day.
  • Beta Field Performance: C54 well achieved an IP20 of 800 barrels of oil per day, exceeding expectations.
  • Haynesville Monetization: Generated $9.2M from acreage sale, retaining 10% interest in future development.
  • Capital Budget Reduction: Deferred three Beta projects, saving $50M, and lowered 2025 budget to $55-70M.
  • Operational Resilience: Q1 production dipped slightly to 17.9 MBoe/day but expected to recover with gas issues resolved and new wells online.

Operational Highlights and Strategic Adjustments

The company's Beta field was a standout performer, with the C54 well achieving an IP20 of 800 barrels of oil per day, significantly outperforming expectations. This success highlights the long-term potential of the Beta asset, with internal rates of return (IRR) exceeding 90% at $60 oil prices. However, in response to softer oil prices, Amplify deferred three Beta projects, preserving $50 million in capital and reducing its 2025 capital budget to $55-70 million. This decision reflects the company's commitment to capital discipline and its focus on high-return projects. The monetization of Haynesville acreage for $9.2 million, while retaining a 10% interest in future development, further demonstrates its strategy of unlocking value without compromising growth opportunities.

Financial Stability and Valuation Perspective

Amplify's financial position remains stable, with debt of $125 million and liquidity of $20 million. The company's strong hedge book, covering 75-80% of 2025 crude oil production and 80-90% of gas production, provides significant cash flow visibility. This stability is reflected in its valuation metrics, with an EV/EBITDA ratio of 1.99 and a P/B ratio of 0.32, indicating a reasonable valuation relative to peers. The free cash flow yield of -6.1% and ROIC of 3.99% highlight the company's current focus on reinvestment over cash returns, a strategy that aligns with its growth aspirations.

Future Outlook and Strategic Priorities

Looking ahead, Amplify is well-positioned to capitalize on its diversified portfolio of low-decline assets and robust cash flow generation. The company's strong hedge position and cost-saving initiatives are expected to drive stability in a challenging commodity price environment. Management's emphasis on debt reduction, targeting a leverage range of 0.5 to 1 turn, signals a clear focus on strengthening the balance sheet. Additionally, the exploration of portfolio optimization, including potential divestitures, could further enhance liquidity and support reinvestment in high-return projects. With analyst estimates pointing to 27.8% revenue growth in 2026, Amplify appears to be on a trajectory for long-term growth, supported by its disciplined approach to capital allocation and operational excellence.

3. NewsRoom

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Amplify Energy Provides Strategic Initiatives Update and Third Quarter 2025 Results

Nov -05

Source: globenewswire.com

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Amplify Energy Announces Divestiture of Oklahoma Assets

Nov -05

Source: globenewswire.com

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Amplify Energy Sells Its East Texas Assets And Eliminates Most Of Its Debt

Nov -01

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Amplify Energy Announces Divestiture of East Texas Assets

Oct -29

Source: globenewswire.com

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Amplify Energy: Aiming For Large Divestitures To Eliminate Debt And Focus On Beta Development

Sep -26

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Amplify Energy to Participate in the 2025 EnerCom Denver – The Energy Investment Conference

Aug -12

Source: globenewswire.com

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Amplify Energy (AMPY) Reports Q2 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates

Aug -06

Source: zacks.com

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Amplify Energy Announces Strategic Initiatives Update, Second Quarter 2025 Results, and Updated Full-Year 2025 Guidance

Aug -06

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.61%)

6. Segments

Oil

Expected Growth: 5%

Amplify Energy Corp.'s 5% growth in oil production is driven by increased drilling activities in the Eagle Ford shale, improved well completion techniques, and enhanced oil recovery methods. Additionally, strategic acquisitions and divestitures have optimized the company's asset portfolio, leading to higher production volumes and improved operational efficiencies.

Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 4%

Amplify Energy Corp.'s 4% growth in Natural Gas is driven by increasing demand from power generation and industrial sectors, coupled with rising LNG exports. Additionally, the company's strategic asset base in the Rockies and South Texas, as well as its focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction, contribute to its growth momentum.

Natural Gas Liquids

Expected Growth: 3%

Amplify Energy Corp.'s Natural Gas Liquids segment growth is driven by increasing demand for petrochemical feedstocks, growing exports to Asia, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, improving operational efficiencies, higher wellhead prices, and a favorable crude-to-natural gas price ratio contribute to the 3% growth rate.

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Amplify Energy Corp. is involved in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil from its operated and non-operated properties.

Natural Gas

The company produces natural gas from its operated and non-operated properties, which is used as a clean-burning fuel for power generation and industrial applications.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Amplify Energy Corp. produces NGLs, which are used as feedstocks for petrochemical plants, as a fuel, and as a component in the production of plastics and other products.

Oil and Gas Midstream Services

The company provides oil and gas midstream services, including gathering, processing, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas.

8. Amplify Energy Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Amplify Energy Corp. is moderate due to the availability of alternative energy sources, but the company's focus on oil and natural gas production reduces the impact of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for Amplify Energy Corp. as the company sells its products to a diverse range of customers, reducing dependence on any one customer.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate for Amplify Energy Corp. as the company relies on a few key suppliers for equipment and services, but has some flexibility to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low for Amplify Energy Corp. due to the high barriers to entry in the oil and natural gas production industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for Amplify Energy Corp. due to the competitive nature of the oil and natural gas production industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 22.99%
Debt Cost 5.32%
Equity Weight 77.01%
Equity Cost 14.15%
WACC 12.12%
Leverage 29.85%

11. Quality Control: Amplify Energy Corp. passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Mexco Energy

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Calumet Specialty Products Partners

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 3.0

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Barnwell Industries

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Ring Energy

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 9.1

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Amplify Energy

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Vital Energy

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 9.1

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 2.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

5.56$

Current Price

5.56$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows