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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. manufactures, formulates, and markets slate of specialty branded products to various consumer-facing and industrial markets in North America and internationally.Its Specialty Products and Solutions segment offers various solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, and other products.The company's Montana/Renewables segment focuses on processing renewable feedstocks into renewable hydrogen, renewable natural gas, renewable propane, renewable naphtha, renewable kerosene/aviation fuel, and renewable diesel.


This segment also processes Canadian crude oil into conventional gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and specialty grades of asphalt.Its Performance Brands segment blends, packages, and markets high performance products through Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel brands.Calumet GP, LLC serves as the general partner for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

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1.b. Last Insights on CLMT

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P.'s recent performance has been impacted by its preliminary Q4 2024 financial results, which showed a net loss between $54 million and $24 million and Adjusted EBITDA between $45 million and $60 million. The company's CEO, Todd Borgmann, attributed the loss to "challenging market conditions" during the quarter. The company's Montana Renewables segment was also affected by strong competition and weak wind market conditions. The company's earnings release was followed by a conference call, where analysts raised concerns about the company's profitability and competition in the wind market. Despite this, the company's executives expressed optimism about its prospects, citing its "strong pipeline" of projects and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions. The company's recent analyst update call also highlighted its efforts to improve efficiency and reduce costs, which could help mitigate the impact of weak market conditions. However, the company's weak Q4 results and guidance may continue to weigh on investor sentiment in the near term.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Calumet’s Q4 2025: EBITDA Surge, Debt Decline, and SAF Momentum

Calumet Inc. reported a robust Q4 performance, delivering $293 million of adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes—a 30% YoY increase—while the company’s EPS came in at –$0.43 versus analysts’ –$0.67. Revenue growth was supported by record Specialties volumes and a sharp decline in restricted debt of $220 million, improving net recourse leverage from 8.2x to 4.9x. The firm’s capital structure now appears leaner and more resilient.

Publication Date: Apr -13

📋 Highlights
  • Adjusted EBITDA Growth: Surged to $293M, a 30% YoY increase, with tax attributes.
  • Debt Reduction: Cut restricted debt by $220M, lowering net leverage to 4.9x from 8.2x.
  • Montana Renewables DOE Loan: Closed, removing $80M in annual cash debt service.
  • Specialties Segment Performance: Achieved 20,000+ barrels/day sales and $291.8M annual EBITDA.
  • MaxSAF 150 Project: Aims to add 120-150M gallons SAF capacity, with $115-145M 2026 CapEx planned.

Specialties Segment Breakout

The Specialties business achieved record product output, exceeding 20,000 barrels per day every quarter. Adjusted EBITDA climbed to $88.5 million in Q4 and $291.8 million for the full year, with margins above $60 per barrel driven by commercial excellence, integration, and optionality. This segment’s performance underpins the company’s confidence in sustaining growth and profitability.

Montana Renewables & MaxSAF 150

Montana Renewables reduced operating costs to $0.41 per gallon in the second half, a 60% improvement over two years ago, and monetized $90 million in production tax credits. The company closed a DOE loan, eliminating roughly $80 million of annual debt service. Staff noted the firm’s margin capture of over 100% of the renewable diesel index, underscoring its ability to shift gears quickly. The MaxSAF 150 project, slated to reach 120‑150 million gallons per year by late April, promises durable free cash flow and a $1‑2 per gallon premium over renewable diesel.

Capital Allocation & Outlook

Calumet’s disciplined capital allocation prioritizes deleveraging, Specialties expansion, and the MaxSAF strategy. For 2026, total CapEx is projected at $115‑145 million, with $70‑90 million earmarked for the restricted group. The company expects to maintain durable free cash flow, grow its Specialties segment, and benefit from the upcoming RVO announcement, which should enhance utilization and margin capture.

Valuation Snapshot

3. NewsRoom

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Calumet Announces Intention to Nominate Bradford T. Sanders to Board of Directors

Apr -06

Source: prnewswire.com

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Calumet (NASDAQ:CLMT) Director Sells $114,062.60 in Stock

Apr -05

Source: defenseworld.net

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Calumet, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLMT) Receives Consensus Rating of “Hold” from Brokerages

Apr -05

Source: defenseworld.net

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Calumet Announces First Quarter 2026 Operational Update

Apr -02

Source: prnewswire.com

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Why Calumet Stock Is Soaring Today

Mar -30

Source: fool.com

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Adams Asset Advisors LLC Has $102.46 Million Stock Position in Calumet, Inc. $CLMT

Mar -30

Source: defenseworld.net

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Calumet Announces Board Member Will Not Stand for Re-Election

Mar -25

Source: prnewswire.com

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Calumet to Attend H.C. Wainwright Renewable Fuels Virtual Day

Mar -18

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.48%)

6. Segments

Specialty Products and Solutions

Expected Growth: 5%

Calumet's Specialty Products and Solutions segment growth is driven by increasing demand for high-quality lubricants, waxes, and solvents in the automotive, industrial, and consumer markets. Additionally, strategic partnerships, product innovation, and expansion into new geographies contribute to the 5% growth rate.

Montana/Renewables

Expected Growth: 7%

Montana/Renewables from Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. growth driven by increasing demand for sustainable energy, favorable government policies and incentives, declining renewable energy costs, and growing consumer preference for eco-friendly products, resulting in 7% growth.

Performance Brands

Expected Growth: 5%

Performance Brands' 5% growth is driven by increasing demand for lubricants and fuels in the automotive and industrial sectors, coupled with strategic acquisitions and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the segment benefits from a strong brand portfolio, including Royal Purple and Bel-Ray, which enables premium pricing and loyalty among customers.

7. Detailed Products

Specialty Lubricants

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. offers a range of specialty lubricants used in various industrial, commercial, and consumer applications.

Solvents

Calumet produces a variety of solvents used in coatings, adhesives, sealants, and other industrial applications.

Waxes

Calumet offers a range of waxes used in food, pharmaceutical, and industrial applications.

Fuels

Calumet produces a range of fuels, including diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel.

Asphalt

Calumet produces asphalt used in road construction, maintenance, and repair.

8. Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. is medium due to the availability of alternative products in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. is low due to the company's strong brand presence and customer loyalty.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. is high due to the presence of several established players in the market.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 129.65%
Debt Cost 10.62%
Equity Weight -29.65%
Equity Cost 12.73%
WACC 9.99%
Leverage -437.25%

11. Quality Control: Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 5.5

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Quality: 4.5

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

32.24$

Current Price

32.24$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows