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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. manufactures, formulates, and markets slate of specialty branded products to various consumer-facing and industrial markets in North America and internationally.Its Specialty Products and Solutions segment offers various solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, and other products.The company's Montana/Renewables segment focuses on processing renewable feedstocks into renewable hydrogen, renewable natural gas, renewable propane, renewable naphtha, renewable kerosene/aviation fuel, and renewable diesel.


This segment also processes Canadian crude oil into conventional gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and specialty grades of asphalt.Its Performance Brands segment blends, packages, and markets high performance products through Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel brands.Calumet GP, LLC serves as the general partner for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

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1.b. Last Insights on CLMT

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P.'s recent performance has been impacted by its preliminary Q4 2024 financial results, which showed a net loss between $54 million and $24 million and Adjusted EBITDA between $45 million and $60 million. The company's CEO, Todd Borgmann, attributed the loss to "challenging market conditions" during the quarter. The company's Montana Renewables segment was also affected by strong competition and weak wind market conditions. The company's earnings release was followed by a conference call, where analysts raised concerns about the company's profitability and competition in the wind market. Despite this, the company's executives expressed optimism about its prospects, citing its "strong pipeline" of projects and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions. The company's recent analyst update call also highlighted its efforts to improve efficiency and reduce costs, which could help mitigate the impact of weak market conditions. However, the company's weak Q4 results and guidance may continue to weigh on investor sentiment in the near term.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Calumet's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Quarter Financially and Strategically

Calumet Inc.'s third-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $92.5 million, a significant improvement from the same quarter last year. The company's production is up nearly 600,000 barrels versus last year, with a unit operating cost reduction of $3.37 per barrel. The Specialty Products & Solutions segment generated $80.2 million of adjusted EBITDA, with sales volume exceeding 20,000 barrels per day for the fourth consecutive quarter. Actual EPS came out at '-0.21', beating estimates at '-0.3'. The revenue growth for next year is estimated at 2.1%.

Publication Date: Nov -23

📋 Highlights
  • Adjusted EBITDA:: $92.5M, driven by $24M operating cost reduction QoQ and $60M year-to-date.
  • Production Efficiency:: 600,000-barrel production increase with $3.37/barrel unit cost reduction.
  • PTC Monetization:: $40M raised via PTC sales ($25M in Q3 and $15M in October) with 95% capture expected.
  • RIN Obligation Reduction:: $320M reduction in RIN liability and $40M debt deleveraging achieved.
  • MaxSAF Expansion:: 75% of expanded SAF volume contracted or in final DOE review, on track for 120–150M gallons by 2026.

Segment Performance

The Montana Renewables segment generated $17.1 million of adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes. The company completed a $25 million PTC sale and another $15 million in October. The MaxSAF expansion is on schedule for the first half of 2026, with approximately 75% of the expanded volume either contracted or within the final DOE review process. The asphalt side saw a $14 million year-over-year gain, driven by a strong quarter in Montana.

Operational Efficiency and Cost Reduction

The company removed $24 million of operating costs from the system versus the same quarter last year, with year-to-date operating costs $60 million lower. Operating costs, excluding SG&A, reached $0.40 per gallon, marking their eighth straight quarter of improvement. The company's cost and reliability initiatives are outperforming expectations, and the commercial organization continues to sell growing production into stable high-margin accounts.

Deleveraging and Cash Flow

The company reduced its outstanding balance sheet RIN obligation by over $320 million and deleveraged by over $40 million. The priority remains deleveraging, with expected cash flow from the business adequate to address the '26 notes. Potential strategic activity and monetization of Montana Renewables are options for further deleveraging.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/S Ratio of 0.4 and an EV/EBITDA of -20.56, the market seems to have a cautious outlook on the company. However, the company's strong operational performance and cost reduction initiatives are expected to drive a strong recovery in 2026, based on preliminary RVO targets announced by the EPA. The operating side of the story is running well, with most risks and opportunities tied to the macro environment.

3. NewsRoom

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Geode Capital Management LLC Has $26.86 Million Stock Holdings in Calumet, Inc. $CLMT

Nov -29

Source: defenseworld.net

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Calumet to Attend Bank of America Leveraged Finance Conference

Nov -25

Source: prnewswire.com

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Calumet to Attend T.D. Cowen Conference

Nov -11

Source: prnewswire.com

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Calumet's Turning A Corner, But I'm Not Chasing The Rally Yet

Nov -10

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Calumet to Attend Bank of America Conference

Nov -07

Source: prnewswire.com

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Why Calumet Stock Is Up and Down Today

Nov -07

Source: fool.com

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Calumet Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results

Nov -07

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.48%)

6. Segments

Specialty Products and Solutions

Expected Growth: 5%

Calumet's Specialty Products and Solutions segment growth is driven by increasing demand for high-quality lubricants, waxes, and solvents in the automotive, industrial, and consumer markets. Additionally, strategic partnerships, product innovation, and expansion into new geographies contribute to the 5% growth rate.

Montana/Renewables

Expected Growth: 7%

Montana/Renewables from Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. growth driven by increasing demand for sustainable energy, favorable government policies and incentives, declining renewable energy costs, and growing consumer preference for eco-friendly products, resulting in 7% growth.

Performance Brands

Expected Growth: 5%

Performance Brands' 5% growth is driven by increasing demand for lubricants and fuels in the automotive and industrial sectors, coupled with strategic acquisitions and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the segment benefits from a strong brand portfolio, including Royal Purple and Bel-Ray, which enables premium pricing and loyalty among customers.

7. Detailed Products

Specialty Lubricants

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. offers a range of specialty lubricants used in various industrial, commercial, and consumer applications.

Solvents

Calumet produces a variety of solvents used in coatings, adhesives, sealants, and other industrial applications.

Waxes

Calumet offers a range of waxes used in food, pharmaceutical, and industrial applications.

Fuels

Calumet produces a range of fuels, including diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel.

Asphalt

Calumet produces asphalt used in road construction, maintenance, and repair.

8. Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. is medium due to the availability of alternative products in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. is low due to the company's strong brand presence and customer loyalty.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. is high due to the presence of several established players in the market.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 129.65%
Debt Cost 10.62%
Equity Weight -29.65%
Equity Cost 12.73%
WACC 9.99%
Leverage -437.25%

11. Quality Control: Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Growth: 7.3

Quality: 7.1

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Momentum: 0.5

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Calumet Specialty Products Partners

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 5.6

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Growth: 2.1

Quality: 2.4

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

19.34$

Current Price

19.34$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows