Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil properties in the United States.As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 502,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and 174,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale.The company also owned and operated 494 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin; and 21 compressor stations.


It had estimated proved reserves of 17.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent, including 10.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; 718 million barrels of assumed recovered ethane; 501 million barrels of primarily propane, isobutane, normal butane, and natural gasoline; and 36 million barrels of oil.The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013.Antero Resources Corporation was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on AR

Antero Resources' recent performance was positively driven by rising natural gas demand, stronger production, and pricing momentum. The company's Q3 earnings miss was offset by robust natural gas prices, averaging over $3 MCF. Recent acquisitions, totaling $260 million, are expected to drive 2-3% production growth in Q4 2025. Additionally, favorable industry positioning, ultra-low-cost reserves, and significant exposure to LNG exports and AI/data center demand have bolstered the company's outlook. Several institutional investors, including AlphaQuest LLC and Accordant Advisory Group Inc, have increased or initiated stakes in the company.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Antero's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Review of the Company's Performance

Antero Resources reported revenues of $432 million for Q3 2025, a 5% increase from the previous quarter. The company's EPS came in at $0.15, missing analyst estimates of $0.22. Despite this, the company's net income margin remained stable at 14%. As Brendan Krueger, CFO, noted, "Our capital-efficient program resulted in attractive free cash flow of over $90 million during the quarter." The company's free cash flow yield stands at 12.91%, indicating a decent return for investors.

Publication Date: Nov -06

📋 Highlights
  • LNG Export Demand Surge: LNG export demand is projected to rise by 4.5 Bcf from early 2025 to year-end, driven by Plaquemines LNG's expansion, with Phase 1 adding 2.4 Bcf/day capacity in 2026.
  • Strong Free Cash Flow: Antero generated $90M in free cash flow during Q3 2025, with $600M year-to-date, driven by capital efficiency and strategic cost management.
  • Harrison County Production Boost: Dry gas production in Harrison County is expected to improve by 50%, increasing from 1.3 Bcf to 2 Bcf per 1,000 feet of lateral length.
  • Slowing NGL Production Growth: U.S. NGL output growth is decelerating due to low oil prices and reduced oil-directed rigs, with Tier 2 regions seeing declines or flat growth.
  • Hedging Strategy Yield Protection: Hedges secured a 6–9% base free cash flow yield at $2–$3 gas prices, balancing downside protection with upside exposure to volatile markets.

Operational Highlights

Antero's production increased by 3% to 1.83 Bcfe/d, driven by the addition of new wells in the Marcellus. The company's dry gas inventory in Harrison County is expected to see a 50% improvement in production, from 1.3 Bcf per day to 2 Bcf per 1,000 foot. This development is a positive sign for the company's growth prospects. With a current P/E Ratio of 18.51 and EV/EBITDA of 9.0, investors are pricing in a certain level of growth, which Antero seems to be delivering on.

Liquids and LNG Demand

Antero's liquids volumes significantly outperformed on price and volume this quarter, driven by sales timing and improved spreads into the Gulf Coast. LNG export demand is expected to increase by 4.5 Bcf from the beginning of 2025 to exit 2025, primarily due to the successful ramp-up of the Plaquemines LNG facility. This trend is expected to continue, with Venture Global set to begin Plaquemines 2, increasing capacity by an incremental 2.4 Bcf per day.

Capital Allocation and Hedging

Antero's hedge book allows the company to protect the downside by locking in a portion of its free cash flow yield. The company's hedging strategy has been effective, with base level free cash flow yields of 6% to 9% at natural gas prices between $2 and $3. As Michael Kennedy, CEO, noted, "We'll continue to evaluate accretive opportunities to increase our net production and core inventory while importantly waiting to increase gross volumes until the broader natural gas market calls for it."

Outlook and Valuation

Analysts estimate Antero's revenue growth at 7.2% for next year. With a ROE of 7.58% and ROIC of 4.61%, the company is generating decent returns on its equity and invested capital. The company's Net Debt / EBITDA ratio stands at 2.35, indicating a manageable level of debt. Overall, Antero's operational performance and hedging strategy position the company well for future growth.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Antero Resources: Natural Gas Pricing Boost

Dec -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

The Next 3 Years Could Make Or Break Portfolios - Here's My Plan

Dec -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Antero Resources: Acquisitions Increase Its Q4 2025 Production Expectations

Nov -22

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Give Oil a Miss, Focus on Natural Gas Stocks: WMB, AR, CRK

Nov -21

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

Accordant Advisory Group Inc Makes New $1.64 Million Investment in Antero Resources Corporation $AR

Nov -20

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Antero Resources Stock Gains 4% Despite Q3 Earnings Miss

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

One Of The Best Energy Opportunities I've Seen In My Career - And Nobody Cares

Nov -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct -31

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.47%)

6. Segments

Exploration and Production

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Antero Resources Corporation's 5.5% growth in Exploration and Production is driven by increased natural gas production, improved operational efficiencies, and strategic acreage acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on reducing costs and improving well productivity has contributed to its growth. Furthermore, Antero's strong balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation have enabled the company to invest in high-return projects, driving growth and increasing shareholder value.

Marketing

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Antero Resources Corporation's 4.8% growth in marketing segment is driven by increasing natural gas production, strategic hedging, and favorable market conditions. The company's focus on operational efficiency, cost reduction, and disciplined capital allocation also contribute to its growth. Additionally, Antero's strong balance sheet and liquidity position enable it to capitalize on opportunities in the market.

7. Detailed Products

Natural Gas

Antero Resources Corporation is a leading independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the acquisition, development, and production of natural gas, NGLs, and oil properties located in the Appalachian Basin.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Antero Resources Corporation produces NGLs, including ethane, propane, and butane, which are used as feedstocks for petrochemical manufacturing and as fuels.

Crude Oil

Antero Resources Corporation produces crude oil, which is used as a feedstock for refineries to produce various petroleum products.

Midstream Services

Antero Resources Corporation provides midstream services, including gathering, compression, and processing of natural gas and NGLs.

8. Antero Resources Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Antero Resources Corporation is medium due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Antero Resources Corporation is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Antero Resources Corporation is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Antero Resources Corporation is high due to the low barriers to entry in the energy industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Antero Resources Corporation is high due to the presence of multiple competitors in the energy industry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 22.93%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 77.07%
Equity Cost 20.40%
WACC 16.63%
Leverage 29.76%

11. Quality Control: Antero Resources Corporation passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
EQT

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Range Resources

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Antero Resources

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Comstock Resources

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Southwestern Energy

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Kosmos Energy

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

36.75$

Current Price

36.75$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows