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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

EQT Corporation operates as a natural gas production company in the United States.The company produces natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), including ethane, propane, isobutane, butane, and natural gasoline.As of December 31, 2021, it had 25.0 trillion cubic feet of proved natural gas, NGLs, and crude oil reserves across approximately 2.0 million gross acres, including 1.7 million gross acres in the Marcellus play.


The company was founded in 1878 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

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1.b. Last Insights on EQT

EQT Corporation's recent performance was driven by robust natural gas fundamentals and operational efficiencies. The company's Q4 2025 revenue rose 47% YoY to $2.39B, with natural gas strength offsetting oil segment weakness. Core operating margin doubled YoY, driven by data center expansion and projected natural gas price rebound. Liquidity and leverage remain strong, with a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.3x. The company's record operational efficiencies, including fastest quarterly completions pace and most lateral footage drilled in 24 and 48 hours, contributed to its strong performance. Additionally, EQT's increased MVP ownership and tactical hedging strategies have enhanced its growth prospects. The company's 2026 production forecast of 2,275 – 2,375 Bcfe and maintenance capital spending guidance of $2,070 – $2,210 million also indicate a strong outlook.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. EQT's Stellar 2025 Performance and Future Growth Prospects

EQT reported a strong financial performance in 2025, with free cash flow attributable to EQT reaching $2.5 billion, significantly outperforming both consensus and internal expectations. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.9, beating estimates of $0.753. Revenue growth is expected to continue, with analysts estimating a 5.0% increase in revenues for the next year. The company's ability to deliver differentiated shareholder value is underscored by its low-cost integrated platform.

Publication Date: Feb -19

📋 Highlights
  • Free Cash Flow Outperformance: EQT generated $2.5 billion in 2025, exceeding consensus by $200 million annually, driven by operational efficiency and price realization gains.
  • Compression Project Success: Compression projects delivered 15% greater-than-expected base production uplift, contributing $200+ million in free cash flow through enhanced well productivity.
  • Capital Allocation Priorities: $600 million of post-dividend free cash flow will fund 2026 growth projects, including the Clarington Connector Pipeline (400 MMcf/d capacity) and water infrastructure.
  • Debt Reduction Progress: Net debt is projected to fall below $6 billion by Q1 2026, improving capital flexibility for growth investments and shareholder returns.

Operational Outperformance

EQT's operational performance was a key driver of its financial success in 2025. The company's production consistently topped expectations, driven by compression project outperformance and robust well productivity. Compression projects executed last year generated a 15% greater-than-expected base production uplift and positively impacted well productivity. As Toby Rice, CEO of EQT, stated, "Our team set multiple EQT and basin-wide operational records during the fourth quarter, including our fastest quarterly completion pace on record and the most lateral footage drilled in a 24- and 48-hour period."

Financial Strength and Capital Allocation

EQT's financial strength is evident in its ability to generate significant free cash flow, with $750 million reported in the fourth quarter, approximately $200 million above consensus expectations. The company is well-positioned to fund high-return infrastructure growth projects, continue its track record of base dividend growth, and accumulate cash to opportunistically repurchase its shares. The estimated net debt of less than $6 billion at the end of the first quarter will enhance its capital allocation flexibility.

Valuation Metrics

To understand what's priced into EQT's stock, we can look at various valuation metrics. The company's P/E Ratio stands at 17.96, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to its earnings. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 7.52, suggesting a reasonable valuation relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Additionally, the Free Cash Flow Yield is 7.78%, indicating a strong ability to generate cash for shareholders.

Growth Prospects

EQT is poised for future growth, with a disciplined maintenance capital program and investments in high-return growth projects. The company plans to allocate $600 million of post-dividend free cash flow to these projects in 2026, focusing on compression projects, water infrastructure, and strategic leasing. With a productive capacity of about 12.5 Bcf a day, EQT aims to capture demand and create infrastructure opportunities, driving sustainable value uplift for shareholders.

3. NewsRoom

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EQT: That 2X Is A Big Deal

Feb -18

Source: seekingalpha.com

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EQT Corp (EQT) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Surpassing Expectations with Robust Free Cash Flow and Strategic Growth Plans

Feb -18

Source: gurufocus.com

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EQT Corporation (EQT) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -18

Source: seekingalpha.com

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EQT Q4 Earnings Top Estimates on Higher Realized Gas-Equivalent Prices

Feb -18

Source: zacks.com

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EQT Corporation: Valuation, Fundamentals May Power Upside, But Consider Technical Caution

Feb -18

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Breakfast News: Nvidia And Meta Ink Huge AI Deal

Feb -18

Source: fool.com

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EQT (EQT) Reports Q4 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Feb -18

Source: zacks.com

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EQT Corporation (EQT) Surpasses Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Feb -17

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.74%)

6. Segments

Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 4.78%

EQT Corporation's 4.78% natural gas growth is driven by increasing demand from power generation and industrial sectors, coupled with strategic acquisitions and operational efficiencies. Additionally, favorable weather patterns and rising LNG exports contribute to the growth. Furthermore, EQT's focus on reducing costs and improving well productivity also supports the growth momentum.

Reconciling Items

Expected Growth: 4.65%

EQT Corporation's 4.65% growth is driven by increased natural gas production, strategic acquisitions, and improved operational efficiencies. Additionally, favorable market conditions, including higher realized prices and increased demand, contribute to the growth. Furthermore, the company's focus on cost reduction and capital discipline also supports its growth momentum.

Natural Gas Liquids

Expected Growth: 4.7%

EQT Corporation's 4.7% growth in Natural Gas Liquids is driven by increased production from its Appalachian Basin assets, improved well productivity, and higher realized prices. Additionally, the company's strategic acquisitions and divestitures have optimized its portfolio, leading to increased efficiency and reduced costs.

Oil

Expected Growth: 4.6%

EQT Corporation's 4.6% growth in oil production is driven by increased drilling and completion activities in the Appalachian Basin, improved operational efficiencies, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, favorable crude oil prices and growing demand for energy also contribute to the growth.

Net Marketing Services and Other

Expected Growth: 4.82%

EQT Corporation's Net Marketing Services and Other segment growth of 4.82% is driven by increased demand for natural gas, expansion of midstream infrastructure, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, improved operational efficiency, cost savings initiatives, and favorable market conditions contribute to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Natural Gas

EQT Corporation is a leading producer of natural gas, with operations focused in the Appalachian Basin.

Crude Oil

EQT Corporation also produces crude oil, primarily in the Appalachian Basin.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

EQT Corporation produces NGLs, including ethane, propane, and butane, as a byproduct of natural gas production.

Midstream Services

EQT Corporation provides midstream services, including gathering, processing, and transmission of natural gas and NGLs.

Water Services

EQT Corporation provides water services, including water recycling and disposal, to support oil and gas operations.

8. EQT Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

EQT Corporation operates in the energy industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative energy sources, such as renewable energy, the demand for traditional energy sources is still high.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

EQT Corporation's customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's dominant position in the energy market. The company's large customer base and diversified product offerings also reduce the bargaining power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

EQT Corporation's suppliers have a moderate level of bargaining power due to the company's dependence on them for raw materials and services. However, the company's large scale of operations and diversified supply chain mitigate the bargaining power of individual suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the energy industry is low due to the high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. EQT Corporation's established position and economies of scale also make it difficult for new entrants to compete.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The energy industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. EQT Corporation faces intense rivalry from other energy companies, which can lead to pricing pressures and reduced profit margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 28.34%
Debt Cost 4.56%
Equity Weight 71.66%
Equity Cost 9.46%
WACC 8.07%
Leverage 39.54%

11. Quality Control: EQT Corporation passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
EQT

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Range Resources

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Antero Resources

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Southwestern Energy

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Comstock Resources

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 2.0

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Kosmos Energy

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

60.5$

Current Price

60.5$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows