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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Biodesix, Inc.operates as a data-driven diagnostic solutions company in the United States.The company offers blood-based lung tests, including Nodify XL2 and Nodify CDT tests, together marketed as part of Nodify Lung Nodule Risk Assessment testing strategy, to assess the risk of lung cancer and help in identifying the appropriate treatment pathway and help physicians in reclassifying risk of malignancy in patients with suspicious lung nodules.


It also offers GeneStrat ddPCR and VeriStrat tests, which are used in the diagnosis of lung cancer to measure the presence of mutations in the tumor and the state of the patient's immune system to establish the patient's prognosis and help guide treatment decisions; and GeneStrat NGS (NGS) test, a 72-hour blood-based NGS test.In addition, the company, through its partnership with Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc., provides Bio-Rad SARS-CoV-2 ddPCR, a COVID-19 Test under Biodesix WorkSafe testing program; and Platelia SARS-CoV-2 Total Ab test, an antibody test for detecting a B-cell immune response to SARS-CoV-2 that indicate recent or prior infection.Further, it offers diagnostic and clinical research, as well as clinical trial testing services to biopharmaceutical companies; and discovers, develops, and commercializes companion diagnostics.


The company was formerly known as Elston Technologies, Inc.Biodesix, Inc.was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Boulder, Colorado.

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1.b. Last Insights on BDSX

Biodesix's recent performance was negatively impacted by a Q1 loss and revenue miss, with a quarterly loss of $0.08 per share in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The company's revenue growth of 21% year-over-year was not enough to offset the decline in earnings. Additionally, the updated 2025 revenue guidance of $80-85 million was lower than expected, contributing to the negative sentiment.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Biodesix Surpasses Expectations with Strong Q3 2025 Earnings

Biodesix reported a robust financial performance in its third-quarter 2025 results, with total revenue increasing by 20% to $21.8 million, driven primarily by a 16% growth in lung diagnostic testing revenue to $19.8 million. This growth was underpinned by a 13% rise in test volumes to approximately 15,700 tests. The company's gross margin also saw a significant improvement, expanding to 81%, up 400 basis points from the prior year. The earnings per share (EPS) came in at -$1.16, beating estimates of -$1.6. The company's net loss narrowed to $8.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA loss improved by 18% to $4.6 million.

Publication Date: Nov -11

📋 Highlights
  • Total Revenue Growth:: Up 20% to $21.8M, driven by 16% lung diagnostic testing revenue increase to $19.8M (13% more tests to ~15,700).
  • Gross Margin Improvement:: Rose to 81%, a 400-basis-point increase YoY, enhancing profitability.
  • Development Services Surge:: Revenue jumped 97% YoY to $1.9M, with $12.9M under contract for future projects.
  • EBITDA Guidance & Capital:: Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $4.6M (18% improvement); $16.6M in cash and raised 2025 revenue guidance to $84–86M.
  • Sales Force Expansion:: Reps grew from 65 in Q1 to 85 in Q3, with plans for 93–97 in Q4, targeting $1M per rep productivity in 50 territories.

Revenue Growth and Guidance

The company's development services revenue surged 97% year-over-year to $1.9 million, with $12.9 million under contract. Biodesix raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $84 million to $86 million, primarily driven by the growth in diagnostic revenue. The company expects to achieve adjusted EBITDA positivity in the fourth quarter, a testament to its improving financial health. With 85 sales reps in the field during Q3, the company is on track to expand its sales team to 93-97 reps in Q4, aiming for a sales rep productivity of $1 million per rep.

Product Development and Partnerships

Biodesix presented clinical data supporting its products and pipeline, including interim results from the CLARIFY study and multiple independent presentations at CHEST. The company has established partnerships with prominent organizations such as Bio-Rad Laboratories, Thermo Fisher Scientific, and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center to develop and commercialize diagnostic tests. These partnerships validate the company's approach and are expected to drive future growth. The company is confident about its product development pipeline and is scheduled to share updates on its pipeline at the R&D Day next week.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/S Ratio of 0.69 and an EV/EBITDA of -4.14, the market seems to be pricing in the company's growth prospects. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 24.9%, indicating a positive outlook for the company. Biodesix feels confident about reaching adjusted EBITDA positivity in Q4 and has sufficient capital to drive towards profitability. The company's focus on making a positive impact on patients' lives through its healthcare provider customers and industry partners remains unwavering.

3. NewsRoom

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Wall Street Analysts Believe Biodesix (BDSX) Could Rally 325.67%: Here's is How to Trade

Dec -03

Source: zacks.com

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Biodesix to Present New Data at Two Major Upcoming Scientific Meetings

Dec -03

Source: globenewswire.com

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Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) Reports Q3 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates

Nov -04

Source: zacks.com

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Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Biodesix Announces Third Quarter 2025 Results and Highlights

Nov -03

Source: globenewswire.com

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Biodesix to Share its R&D Roadmap during its Corporate Day Presentation at AMP Annual Meeting

Oct -30

Source: globenewswire.com

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Biodesix Announces Expanded Bio-Rad Laboratories Partnership Agreement to Develop Droplet Digital™ PCR High Complexity Assays

Oct -22

Source: globenewswire.com

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Biodesix to Report Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results on November 3, 2025

Oct -20

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (14.76%)

6. Segments

Lung Diagnostic

Expected Growth: 15%

Biodesix's Lung Diagnostic growth is driven by increasing lung cancer incidence, adoption of liquid biopsy, and rising demand for non-invasive diagnostic tests. Additionally, the company's proprietary technology and strategic partnerships contribute to its 15% growth rate.

Biopharma Services and Other

Expected Growth: 12%

Biodesix's Biopharma Services and Other segment growth of 12% is driven by increasing demand for its diagnostic testing services, expansion of its customer base, and growing adoption of its GeneStrat and VeriStrat tests. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships and collaborations with pharmaceutical companies contribute to its growth.

COVID-19

Expected Growth: 25%

Biodesix, Inc.'s 25% growth driven by increased demand for COVID-19 diagnostic tests, government funding for pandemic research, and strategic partnerships expanding access to its proprietary diagnostic platforms. Additionally, the company's focus on liquid biopsy technology and AI-powered diagnostics has positioned it for continued growth in the precision medicine market.

7. Detailed Products

VeriStrat

A proteomic test that provides a non-invasive, blood-based test to help physicians assess the prognosis of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)

GeneStrat

A genomic test that provides a comprehensive genomic profile of NSCLC tumors to help guide treatment decisions

Nodify XL2

A blood-based test that detects and monitors lung nodule malignancy

PlasmaSeq

A liquid biopsy test that detects and monitors circulating tumor DNA in patients with cancer

Biodesix Lung Reflex

A comprehensive testing strategy that integrates multiple biomarkers to guide lung cancer diagnosis and treatment

8. Biodesix, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Biodesix, Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the availability of alternative diagnostic tests and treatments for lung cancer. However, the company's proprietary technology and strong brand recognition mitigate this threat to some extent.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Biodesix, Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to the specialized nature of its products and services, which are critical for healthcare providers and patients. This gives the company significant pricing power and negotiating leverage.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Biodesix, Inc. has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers due to its reliance on a few key suppliers for raw materials and equipment. However, the company's strong relationships with these suppliers and its ability to negotiate favorable terms mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

Biodesix, Inc. faces a high threat of new entrants due to the growing demand for diagnostic tests and treatments for lung cancer. New entrants could potentially disrupt the market and erode the company's market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Biodesix, Inc. operates in a highly competitive market with several established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry. The company must continually innovate and differentiate its products and services to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 88.58%
Debt Cost 9.65%
Equity Weight 11.42%
Equity Cost 9.65%
WACC 9.65%
Leverage 775.72%

11. Quality Control: Biodesix, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
CareDx

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.7

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Castle Biosciences

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 2.0

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Aspira Women's Health

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 0.0

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Standard BioTools

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Biodesix

A-Score: 2.7/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Star Equity Holdings

A-Score: 2.6/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 0.9

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

7.79$

Current Price

7.79$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows