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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

CareDx, Inc.discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide.It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients.


The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software.In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; and XynQAPI transplant quality tracking and waitlist management solutions, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients.The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors.


It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc.for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss.The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc.


and changed its name to CareDx, Inc.in March 2014.The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on CDNA

CareDx's recent performance was driven by strong Q3 earnings, with quarterly earnings of $0.28 per share beating estimates. Revenue reached $100.1 million, a 21% year-over-year increase. The company's testing services revenue also showed significant growth. Institutional investors, such as Aviva PLC, increased their stakes in CareDx, with Aviva PLC buying an additional 4,317 shares. The company also announced inducement grants to new employees, and the appointment of Suresh Gunasekaran to its Board of Directors. New IVD products and IVDR certification for AlloSeq Tx and QTYPE were also announced.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. CareDx Delivers Record Revenue and Testing Volumes

CareDx reported a strong third quarter with record revenue and testing volumes. Total revenue grew 21% year-over-year to $100.1 million, with Testing Services revenue at $72.2 million, up 19% year-over-year. The company delivered approximately 50,300 tests in the third quarter, up 13% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $15.3 million, more than double Q3 last year. Earnings per share came out at $0.28, significantly beating estimates of $0.13. Gross profit was $70.9 million, a 190 basis point increase to 70.9%. The company's CFO, Nathan Smith, noted a 21% increase in total revenue to $100.1 million, with all three business segments generating record quarterly revenue.

Publication Date: Nov -30

📋 Highlights
  • Record Revenue and Testing Volumes:: Total revenue grew 21% YoY to $100.1M; Testing Services revenue reached $72.2M (+19% YoY) with 50,300 tests (+13% YoY).
  • Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth:: Adjusted EBITDA doubled to $15.3M compared to Q3 2023, driven by operational efficiency and volume growth.
  • Aggressive Share Repurchases:: 2M shares repurchased at $12.87 average price, totaling ~9% of shares outstanding year-to-date.
  • Segment Growth and Product Momentum:: Patient & Digital Solutions revenue hit $15.4M (+30% YoY); Lab Products revenue rose 22% to $12.5M.
  • Guidance Upgrade and Product Launches:: 2025 revenue guidance raised to $372M–$376M; launched HistoMap Kidney and AlloSeq Tx11, with SHORE study validating HeartCare adoption.

Segment Performance

The company saw growth across all three organs: heart, kidney, and lung in Testing Services. Patient and Digital Solutions revenue was $15.4 million, representing 30% growth compared to last year. Lab products revenue was $12.5 million, up 22% year-over-year. Kidney surveillance testing grew nearly 20% year-over-year, driven by the adoption of formal protocols utilizing surveillance testing.

Operational Excellence and Guidance

CareDx made significant progress in operational excellence, including the launch of its EPIC instance and improvements in revenue cycle management. Cash collections in the third quarter were exceptional, with collections accelerating to 124% of testing services revenue. The company raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $372 million to $376 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $35 million to $39 million. For the fourth quarter, the company expects revenue of $101 million to $105 million, with testing volume between 52,000 to 54,000 tests.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 15.44 and an expected revenue growth rate of 11.8% next year, the stock appears reasonably valued. The company's ROE of 17.41% and ROIC of 15.15% indicate strong profitability. CareDx's growth rates are expected to continue to outpace the market, driven by the adoption of its products and services, including the recently launched HistoMap Kidney and AlloSeq Tx11.

Macro Environment and Future Outlook

Management stated that transplant volumes across all three solid organs have remained relatively flat year-over-year. They expect their growth rates to continue to outpace the market, with the IOTA program expected to drive growth in transplantation and the need for more intensive surveillance monitoring of compromised organs in 2026. The company is gaining accounts, particularly in the kidney business line, which saw 20% growth year-over-year.

3. NewsRoom

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Geode Capital Management LLC Purchases 43,074 Shares of CareDx, Inc. $CDNA

Nov -29

Source: defenseworld.net

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Wall Street Analysts Believe CareDx (CDNA) Could Rally 28.02%: Here's is How to Trade

Nov -27

Source: zacks.com

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Envestnet Asset Management Inc. Acquires 3,389 Shares of CareDx, Inc. $CDNA

Nov -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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Aviva PLC Increases Position in CareDx, Inc. $CDNA

Nov -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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CareDx Announces Inducement Grants Under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5635(c)(4)

Nov -07

Source: businesswire.com

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Analyzing Progyny (NASDAQ:PGNY) and CareDx (NASDAQ:CDNA)

Nov -05

Source: defenseworld.net

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CareDx, Inc (CDNA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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CareDx (CDNA) Q3 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

Nov -05

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.14%)

6. Segments

Testing Services

Expected Growth: 5%

CareDx's Testing Services growth is driven by increasing adoption of non-invasive diagnostic tests, growing demand for personalized medicine, and expansion into new transplant centers. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, strategic partnerships, and strong sales execution contribute to its growth momentum.

Patient and Digital Solutions

Expected Growth: 7%

CareDx's Patient and Digital Solutions segment growth is driven by increasing adoption of AlloSeq, a leading transplant diagnostics platform, and expanding digital capabilities, such as AlloCare, which enhances patient engagement and outcomes. Additionally, growing demand for personalized medicine and precision diagnostics, as well as strategic partnerships and collaborations, contribute to the segment's 7% growth.

Product

Expected Growth: 4%

CareDx's 4x growth is driven by increasing adoption of its AlloSeq transplant diagnostics, expansion into new markets, and growing demand for precision medicine. The company's leadership in non-invasive kidney transplant surveillance and its expanding test menu also contribute to its rapid growth.

7. Detailed Products

AlloSure

A non-invasive, blood-based test that measures donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) to detect rejection in kidney transplant patients

AlloMap

A gene expression test that measures the expression of 20 genes involved in immune response to detect rejection in heart transplant patients

RemoTraC

A remote monitoring platform that enables remote monitoring of transplant patients, allowing for early detection of potential issues

AlloSeq

A suite of high-resolution HLA typing and chimerism tests that provide detailed information on a patient's immune system

8. CareDx, Inc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

CareDx, Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the presence of alternative diagnostic tests and treatments for kidney transplant patients. However, the company's proprietary AlloSure test has a strong market position, which reduces the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

CareDx, Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to the specialized nature of its products and services. The company's customers, primarily healthcare providers and patients, have limited alternatives and are dependent on CareDx's products for kidney transplant care.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

CareDx, Inc. has a low bargaining power of suppliers due to its dependence on a limited number of suppliers for raw materials and components. The company has established long-term contracts with its suppliers, which reduces the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

CareDx, Inc. faces a high threat of new entrants due to the growing demand for personalized medicine and the increasing investment in healthcare technology. New entrants could potentially disrupt the market and compete with CareDx's products and services.

Intensity Of Rivalry

CareDx, Inc. operates in a moderately competitive market with a few established players. The company's strong market position and proprietary products help to mitigate the intensity of rivalry, but the company still faces competition from other diagnostic companies and research institutions.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 11.58%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 88.42%
Equity Cost 11.48%
WACC 10.61%
Leverage 13.10%

11. Quality Control: CareDx, Inc passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Neuronetics

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Growth: 4.0

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.7

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CareDx

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 0.0

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A-Score: 2.6/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 0.9

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 0.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.65$

Current Price

18.65$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows