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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

CareDx, Inc.discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide.It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients.


The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software.In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; and XynQAPI transplant quality tracking and waitlist management solutions, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients.The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors.


It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc.for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss.The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc.


and changed its name to CareDx, Inc.in March 2014.The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on CDNA

CareDx's recent performance has been driven by several positive factors. The company's rating upgrade to Buy by Zacks, citing growing optimism about its earnings prospects, has contributed to its momentum. Additionally, CareDx has sharpened its focus on core testing services through the sale of its transplant Lab Product division to Eurobio Scientific, expected to close by the end of Q3 2026. The company has also launched AlloSeq Nano, a high-resolution rapid HLA typing solution, aiming to boost transplant diagnostics speed and lab efficiency. These developments position CareDx for growth in the transplant diagnostics market.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. CareDx Posts Strong Q4 2025 Results, Driven by Testing Services and Patient Solutions Growth

CareDx, Inc reported a robust fourth quarter 2025, with revenue reaching $108.4 million, a 25% year-over-year increase. Testing services revenue was $78.4 million, up 23% from the same quarter last year, while Patient and Digital Solutions revenue surged 47% to $16.8 million. The company's non-GAAP gross margin stood at 68.5%, and adjusted EBITDA was $6.5 million. However, EPS came in at -$0.08037, missing estimates of $0.24. The company's guidance for 2026 expects revenue to grow to $420-444 million, representing a 14% year-over-year increase at the midpoint.

Publication Date: Mar -06

📋 Highlights
  • Q4 2025 Revenue Growth:: Revenue reached $108.4M, up 25% YoY, driven by 17% testing volume growth and $7M positive adjusted EBITDA.
  • 2026 Revenue Guidance:: Full-year revenue projected at $420–444M (14% YoY growth), with Testing Services expected to deliver $306–326M and Patient & Digital Solutions at $114–118M.
  • EBITDA & Margin Targets:: 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $30–45M (20% increase at midpoint) despite a $7.5M LCD revenue impact, targeting 20% EBITDA margins by 2027.
  • Strategic Investments:: $10M allocated to integrate Epic’s LIMS for streamlined lab workflows, with $4M one-time costs and $6M recurring fees over 18 months.
  • Balance Sheet Strength:: Ended 2025 with $201.4M in cash, $88M in stock buybacks (5.8M shares), and $88M revenue collected in Q4 (37% YoY growth).

Segment Performance

The company's testing services segment drove growth, with a 17% year-over-year increase in testing volume in Q4. The Patient and Digital Solutions segment also showed strong growth, driven by the sale of MedActionPlan and ZynQAPI products. According to John Hanna, "Our Chief Commercial Officer has done an outstanding job rebuilding the commercial team and field team around solution selling, which is driving the sale of Patient and Digital Solutions."

Guidance and Outlook

For 2026, CareDx expects testing services revenue to reach $306-326 million, with testing volumes of 220,000 to 228,000 tests. Patient and Digital Solutions revenue is expected to be $114-118 million. The company's EBITDA guide ranges from $30-45 million, representing a 20% increase over 2025 at the midpoint. The guidance assumes a $7.5 million revenue reduction from the implementation of the LCD.

Valuation and Ratios

With a P/S Ratio of 2.54 and an EV/EBITDA of -7655.1, the market seems to be pricing in significant growth expectations. The company's ROE and ROIC are negative, at -6.47% and -8.77%, respectively. However, the Free Cash Flow Yield is 3.78%, indicating a relatively attractive valuation. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 11.2%, which is lower than the company's guidance. The LCD impact and GLP-1s' effect on kidney disease and transplants are key factors to watch.

Key Developments

The company is advancing its cell therapy pipeline, with pivotal clinical validation results for Allaheme, its AI-powered NGS surveillance solution. CareDx is also migrating its LIMS infrastructure to Epic Enterprise Solutions, which will enable the company to launch new products more rapidly. The company's cash and cash equivalents stood at $201.4 million at the end of 2025, providing a solid foundation for future growth.

3. NewsRoom

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CareDx (CDNA) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates

Apr -28

Source: zacks.com

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CareDx Launches AlloSeq Nano for High-Resolution Rapid HLA Typing

Apr -21

Source:

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All You Need to Know About CareDx (CDNA) Rating Upgrade to Buy

Apr -17

Source: zacks.com

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CareDx Sharpens Focus On Core Testing Services

Apr -16

Source: benzinga.com

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Eurobio scientific signs definitive agreement to acquire CareDx's transplant Lab Product division

Apr -16

Source: globenewswire.com

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Bamco Inc. NY Has $45.88 Million Stake in CareDx, Inc. $CDNA

Mar -16

Source: defenseworld.net

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CareDx Introduces VANTx AI Platform for Complex Transplant Datasets

Mar -12

Source: zacks.com

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CareDx Details Transplant+ Roadmap, AlloHeme Timeline, and 2026 Outlook at Raymond James Conference

Mar -09

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.14%)

6. Segments

Testing Services

Expected Growth: 5%

CareDx's Testing Services growth is driven by increasing adoption of non-invasive diagnostic tests, growing demand for personalized medicine, and expansion into new transplant centers. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, strategic partnerships, and strong sales execution contribute to its growth momentum.

Patient and Digital Solutions

Expected Growth: 7%

CareDx's Patient and Digital Solutions segment growth is driven by increasing adoption of AlloSeq, a leading transplant diagnostics platform, and expanding digital capabilities, such as AlloCare, which enhances patient engagement and outcomes. Additionally, growing demand for personalized medicine and precision diagnostics, as well as strategic partnerships and collaborations, contribute to the segment's 7% growth.

Product

Expected Growth: 4%

CareDx's 4x growth is driven by increasing adoption of its AlloSeq transplant diagnostics, expansion into new markets, and growing demand for precision medicine. The company's leadership in non-invasive kidney transplant surveillance and its expanding test menu also contribute to its rapid growth.

7. Detailed Products

AlloSure

A non-invasive, blood-based test that measures donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) to detect rejection in kidney transplant patients

AlloMap

A gene expression test that measures the expression of 20 genes involved in immune response to detect rejection in heart transplant patients

RemoTraC

A remote monitoring platform that enables remote monitoring of transplant patients, allowing for early detection of potential issues

AlloSeq

A suite of high-resolution HLA typing and chimerism tests that provide detailed information on a patient's immune system

8. CareDx, Inc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

CareDx, Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the presence of alternative diagnostic tests and treatments for kidney transplant patients. However, the company's proprietary AlloSure test has a strong market position, which reduces the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

CareDx, Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to the specialized nature of its products and services. The company's customers, primarily healthcare providers and patients, have limited alternatives and are dependent on CareDx's products for kidney transplant care.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

CareDx, Inc. has a low bargaining power of suppliers due to its dependence on a limited number of suppliers for raw materials and components. The company has established long-term contracts with its suppliers, which reduces the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

CareDx, Inc. faces a high threat of new entrants due to the growing demand for personalized medicine and the increasing investment in healthcare technology. New entrants could potentially disrupt the market and compete with CareDx's products and services.

Intensity Of Rivalry

CareDx, Inc. operates in a moderately competitive market with a few established players. The company's strong market position and proprietary products help to mitigate the intensity of rivalry, but the company still faces competition from other diagnostic companies and research institutions.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 11.58%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 88.42%
Equity Cost 11.48%
WACC 10.61%
Leverage 13.10%

11. Quality Control: CareDx, Inc passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Psychemedics

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 7.5

Growth: 1.7

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 8.0

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Neuronetics

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 1.0

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CareDx

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 1.7

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Aspira Women's Health

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 0.0

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Standard BioTools

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 2.3

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Star Equity Holdings

A-Score: 2.4/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 0.8

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

20.81$

Current Price

20.81$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows