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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally.The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes.It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name.


The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant.In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products.The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts.


The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

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1.b. Last Insights on MOS

The Mosaic Company's recent performance faced headwinds from weaker phosphate volumes, despite gaining from higher prices and cost cuts. Accredited Investors Inc. trimmed its position by 58.3%, selling 14,850 shares. Conversely, Acadian Asset Management LLC grew its position by 419.1%, purchasing 116,323 shares. The company's Q3 earnings beat estimates, with EPS surpassing $1.29 and net income increasing to $411 million. However, revenue fell short at $3.5 billion. Cost savings and higher production supported a stronger balance sheet, prompting an upgrade to "Buy" due to attractive valuation.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Mosaic's Q3 Earnings: A Resilient Performance

Mosaic's third-quarter financial performance was marked by a significant increase in net income to $411 million, up from $122 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $806 million from $448 million a year ago, driven by higher prices across all segments and strong performance in Mosaic Fertilizantes. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.04, beating analyst estimates of $0.968. Revenue growth was not explicitly stated, but the company's phosphate and potash segments saw improved pricing, contributing to the overall positive performance. The company's financial metrics indicate a robust performance, with a gross margin that has expanded due to higher prices.

Publication Date: Nov -09

📋 Highlights
  • Net Income & Adjusted EBITDA Growth:: Q3 net income surged to $411 million (+237% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA rising to $806 million (+78% YoY), driven by higher prices and strong Mosaic Fertilizantes performance.
  • Phosphate Production & Guidance:: Phosphate production averaged 1.8 million tonnes in Q3, within guidance, with plans to reach 2 million tonnes by 2026, aiming for sub-$120/tonne conversion costs at full capacity.
  • Strong Brazil Performance:: Fertilizantes delivered Q3 EBITDA of $241 million, exceeding guidance of $200 million, despite distribution margins of $20/tonne below the $30–$40 target range.
  • Capital Investments & Cost Discipline:: $100 million in CapEx and $100 million in maintenance expenses invested to improve asset health, enabling 3 consecutive quarters of sequential production improvements.
  • Potash Demand & 2026 Outlook:: Record Canpotex shipments expected in 2025, with potash demand in China and Southeast Asia driving growth, and cash production costs projected at low-to-mid $70s/tonne through 2025.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was characterized by improved reliability and production in its potash segment, with cash production costs per tonne expected to finish the year in the low to mid-70s. Phosphate production faced challenges, including a shortfall due to asset health issues, but the company is working to return to normalized production rates in 2026. Mosaic Fertilizantes delivered strong results, despite facing credit challenges in Brazil. The company's efforts to improve operational consistency and asset health are evident in its 3 consecutive quarters of sequential improvements in phosphate production.

Market Dynamics and Outlook

Market dynamics remain favorable for Mosaic, with tight phosphate markets due to global supply constraints and strong potash demand, particularly in China and Southeast Asia. The company expects record Canpotex shipments this year and further strength heading into 2026. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 1.7% for next year, indicating a positive outlook. Mosaic's management is focused on achieving reliable and consistent production, leveraging its market access advantage, and executing its capital reallocation strategy to create shareholder value.

Valuation Metrics

Using the current valuation metrics, Mosaic's P/E Ratio stands at 6.61, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to its earnings. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 4.32, suggesting that the company's enterprise value is reasonable relative to its EBITDA. The Dividend Yield is 3.4%, providing a relatively attractive return for income investors. These metrics suggest that Mosaic's stock may be undervalued, given its earnings growth potential and dividend yield.

3. NewsRoom

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17 dividend-stock bargains from a value manager with a stellar track record

Dec -02

Source: marketwatch.com

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Creative Planning Grows Holdings in The Mosaic Company $MOS

Nov -29

Source: defenseworld.net

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Mosaic Has Asymmetric Upside On Critical Infrastructure

Nov -26

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Barings LLC Cuts Stock Position in The Mosaic Company $MOS

Nov -23

Source: defenseworld.net

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ACE Fiber uses Adtran's Mosaic One Clarity AI solution for proactive assurance, faster resolution and fewer truck rolls

Nov -18

Source: businesswire.com

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Mosaic Announces Quarterly Dividend of $0.22 Per Share

Nov -17

Source: accessnewswire.com

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2 Stocks to Protect Yourself From a 2026 Market Crash

Nov -16

Source: investorplace.com

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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. Increases Holdings in The Mosaic Company $MOS

Nov -16

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.82%)

6. Segments

Mosaic Fertilizantes

Expected Growth: 6%

Mosaic Fertilizantes' 6% growth driven by increasing global demand for fertilizers, driven by population growth and rising food demand. Strong agricultural fundamentals in Brazil, its largest market, and growing adoption of precision agriculture practices also contribute to growth. Additionally, Mosaic's cost savings initiatives and strategic acquisitions enhance its competitive position.

Phosphates

Expected Growth: 5%

The 5% growth of Phosphates from The Mosaic Company is driven by increasing global demand for fertilizers, particularly in Latin America and Asia, coupled with the company's cost-cutting initiatives and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the growing trend of sustainable agriculture and rising crop prices are expected to boost phosphate sales.

Potash

Expected Growth: 7%

Strong demand from Asian markets, particularly China and India, drives Potash growth. Increased use of fertilizers in Latin America and Africa also contributes. Mosaic's expansion in Saskatchewan and its cost-reduction initiatives further support growth. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships and acquisitions enhance its market position, leading to a 7% growth rate.

Corporate, Eliminations and Other

Expected Growth: 4%

The Mosaic Company's 4% growth is driven by Corporate's cost savings initiatives, Eliminations' improved intersegment pricing, and Other's increased sales of ammonia and Estermax. Additionally, Corporate's focus on operational efficiency and Eliminations' reduction of unprofitable business lines contribute to the growth. Other's expansion into new markets and products also supports the growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Phosphates

Mosaic's phosphates are used to produce fertilizers, animal feed, and other products that help farmers grow healthy crops and raise healthy livestock.

Potash

Mosaic's potash is used to produce fertilizers that help farmers grow healthy crops and improve crop yields.

Mosaic's Micronutrients

Mosaic's micronutrients are used to produce fertilizers that provide essential nutrients to crops, improving crop health and yields.

Animal Feed Ingredients

Mosaic's animal feed ingredients are used to produce animal feed that helps farmers raise healthy livestock.

Industrial Products

Mosaic's industrial products are used in a variety of applications, including water treatment, paper manufacturing, and construction materials.

8. The Mosaic Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for The Mosaic Company is medium due to the availability of alternative fertilizers and crop nutrients. While there are some substitutes available, they may not offer the same level of quality or effectiveness as Mosaic's products.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for The Mosaic Company is low due to the company's strong market position and the lack of concentration among its customer base. Farmers and agricultural companies rely heavily on Mosaic's products, giving the company significant pricing power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for The Mosaic Company is medium due to the availability of raw materials and the company's diversified supply chain. While suppliers may have some bargaining power, Mosaic's scale and vertical integration mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for The Mosaic Company is low due to the significant barriers to entry in the fertilizer and crop nutrient industry. New entrants would need to invest heavily in research and development, manufacturing, and distribution, making it difficult for them to compete with established players like Mosaic.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for The Mosaic Company is high due to the competitive nature of the fertilizer and crop nutrient industry. Mosaic faces intense competition from other major players, and the company must continually innovate and improve its products and services to maintain its market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 24.53%
Debt Cost 5.46%
Equity Weight 75.47%
Equity Cost 11.49%
WACC 10.01%
Leverage 32.50%

11. Quality Control: The Mosaic Company passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
NewMarket

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
CF Industries

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Mosaic

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Steel Dynamics

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Scotts Miracle-Gro

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
FMC

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

23.61$

Current Price

23.61$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows