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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Coterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the development, exploration and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States.It primarily focuses on the Marcellus Shale with approximately 177,000 net acres in the dry gas window of the play located in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania.The company also holds Permian Basin properties with approximately 306,000 net acres; and Anadarko Basin properties located in Oklahoma with approximately 182,000 net acres.


In addition, it operates natural gas and saltwater disposal gathering systems in Texas.The company sells its natural gas to industrial customers, local distribution companies, oil and gas marketers, major energy companies, pipeline companies, and power generation facilities.As of December 31, 2021, it had proved reserves of approximately 2,892,582 thousand barrels of oil equivalent, which include 189,429 thousand barrels of oil and other liquid hydrocarbons, 14,895 billion cubic feet of natural gas, and 220,615 thousand barrels of natural gas liquids.


The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on CTRA

Coterra Energy's recent performance was driven by strong operational execution, with a 7% increase in oil production to 11,300 barrels per day. The company reported pre-hedge oil and gas revenues of $1.7 billion, with 57% from oil production. A consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" from 22 brokerages, with 16 "buy" recommendations, supports the stock. Additionally, institutional investors, such as Oppenheimer Asset Management, have acquired new stakes in the company. Coterra's strategic debt reduction efforts and strong production also contributed to its positive momentum.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Coterra Energy's Strong Q3 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

Coterra Energy reported a robust financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with pre-hedge oil and gas revenues reaching $1.7 billion, driven by production volumes that exceeded expectations. The company's oil, natural gas, and BOE production came in approximately 2.5% above the midpoint of guidance. The actual EPS was $0.41, slightly below estimates of $0.43. Despite this, the company's financial performance was strong, with incurred capital of $658 million and free cash flow of $533 million for the quarter.

Publication Date: Nov -09

📋 Highlights
  • Production Guidance Raised: 777 MBoe/day midpoint, 5% above initial guidance
  • Free Cash Flow Surge: $533M in Q3, projecting $2B+ in 2025 (+60% YoY)
  • Operational Cost Efficiency: 10% well cost reduction post-Lea County integration
  • Marcellus Drilling Breakthrough: 4-mile lateral in 9 days, 24% drilling cost drop YoY
  • Liquidity & Shareholder Returns: $2.1B total liquidity, 94% FCF return via buybacks/dividends

Operational Highlights

The company achieved significant operational milestones, including a 10% reduction in total well costs and a 5% reduction in lease operating expenses, resulting in approximately $8 million in annual savings. The integration of Lea County assets has been successful, with significant uplifts in asset performance and cost reductions. As noted by Michael Deshazer, "the company realized a 10% reduction in total well costs," highlighting the effectiveness of their operational strategies.

Guidance and Outlook

Coterra increased its annual MBoe per day production guidance to 777 at the midpoint, a 5% increase from initial guidance. The company expects capital to be modestly down year-over-year in 2026 while maintaining production parameters. With a deep inventory of oil assets and one of the lowest breakeven portfolios in its sector, Coterra is well-positioned for continued growth.

Valuation and Return Metrics

Analyzing Coterra's valuation metrics, we see a P/E Ratio of 12.32, a P/B Ratio of 1.16, and an EV/EBITDA of 5.44. The company's ROE stands at 11.09%, and ROIC is 8.17%. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 0.86, indicating a relatively healthy debt position. With analysts estimating revenue growth at 7.0% for next year, the current valuation appears reasonable.

Future Prospects and Strategies

Coterra remains committed to maintaining a top-tier balance sheet and is focused on deleveraging and opportunistic buybacks. The company expects to generate substantial free cash flow, around $2 billion in 2025, and plans to return roughly 94% of free cash flow through a mix of dividend and buybacks. With a strong operational performance and a solid financial position, Coterra is poised for continued success.

3. NewsRoom

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Coterra Energy: Unloved And Misunderstood

Nov -28

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17 Capital Partners LLC Sells 4,951 Shares of Coterra Energy Inc. $CTRA

Nov -20

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Connor Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd. Buys 31,136 Shares of Coterra Energy Inc. $CTRA

Nov -17

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ABN Amro Investment Solutions Makes New $5.73 Million Investment in Coterra Energy Inc. $CTRA

Nov -14

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Coterra Energy: Flexible Multi-Basin Oil And Gas Producer With Strong Free Cash Flow Generation

Nov -14

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Coterra Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Beat, Expenses Rise Y/Y

Nov -05

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Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -05

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Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Production and Strategic Debt Reduction

Nov -04

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.13%)

6. Segments

Oil

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Coterra Energy Inc.'s 5.5% growth in oil production is driven by increased drilling activities in the Permian Basin, improved operational efficiency, and enhanced oil recovery techniques. Additionally, the company's strategic acquisitions and divestitures have optimized its asset portfolio, leading to higher production volumes and better cost management.

Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 5.0%

Coterra Energy Inc.'s 5.0% natural gas growth is driven by increasing demand from power generation and industrial sectors, coupled with strategic acquisitions and operational efficiencies. Additionally, the company's focus on low-cost production and hedging strategies have enabled it to capitalize on favorable market conditions, further supporting growth.

Natural Gas Liquids

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Coterra Energy Inc.'s 4.8% growth in Natural Gas Liquids is driven by increasing demand from petrochemicals and refining industries, coupled with the company's strategic acreage position in the Permian Basin, allowing for efficient production and transportation. Additionally, Coterra's focus on operational excellence and cost discipline enables the company to capitalize on favorable market conditions.

Gain (Loss) on Derivative Instruments

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Coterra Energy's 3.5% gain on derivative instruments is driven by favorable crude oil and natural gas price movements, coupled with effective hedging strategies. Additionally, the company's diversified asset base and strategic commodity pricing have contributed to this growth. Furthermore, Coterra's ability to optimize its production and risk management practices has also positively impacted its derivative instruments.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Coterra Energy's 4.2% growth driven by increased oil prices, efficient operations, and strategic acquisitions. The company's focus on Permian Basin, a region with high oil reserves, contributes to its growth. Additionally, Coterra's cost-saving initiatives and divestment of non-core assets have improved its financial performance, enabling the company to invest in high-return projects and drive growth.

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Coterra Energy Inc. produces high-quality crude oil from its operations in the Permian Basin and other regions.

Natural Gas

Coterra Energy Inc. extracts natural gas from its wells, which is then processed and sold to customers.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Coterra Energy Inc. produces NGLs, including ethane, propane, and butane, as a byproduct of natural gas processing.

Oilfield Services

Coterra Energy Inc. provides oilfield services, including drilling, completion, and production services, to support its operations.

8. Coterra Energy Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Coterra Energy Inc. operates in the oil and gas industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative energy sources, the demand for oil and gas is still high, and the company's products are widely used.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Coterra Energy Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products are essential to its customers' operations, giving Coterra Energy Inc. an upper hand in negotiations.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Coterra Energy Inc. relies on a few key suppliers for its operations, which gives those suppliers some bargaining power. However, the company's size and scale of operations also give it some negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The oil and gas industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This makes it difficult for new entrants to join the market, reducing the threat of new entrants to Coterra Energy Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The oil and gas industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Coterra Energy Inc. faces intense competition from other companies, which can lead to pricing pressure and reduced margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 14.89%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 85.11%
Equity Cost 4.97%
WACC 4.82%
Leverage 17.50%

11. Quality Control: Coterra Energy Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Coterra Energy

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Black Stone Minerals

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 9.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Civitas Resources

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 9.3

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Kimbell Royalty Partners

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 2.7

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Murphy Oil

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Ovintiv

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

27.49$

Current Price

27.5$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows