Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally.It explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids.The company was formerly known as Murphy Corporation and changed its name to Murphy Oil Corporation in 1964.

The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on MUR

Murphy Oil Corporation's recent performance was driven by strong Q3 earnings, beating estimates with $0.41 per share versus the expected $0.16 per share. The company's revenue also surpassed expectations. New wells boosted volumes, contributing to the positive results. Additionally, a second analyst price target raise in a short period further reinforced investor confidence. The company's plans for high-potential offshore exploration wells and a conservative balance sheet also support its growth ambitions.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	33.01
Change Percentage	1.57%
Open	32.44
Previous Close	32.5
Market Cap ( Millions)	4712
Volume	150141
Year High	34.52
Year Low	18.95
M A 50	29.3
M A 200	25.44

FCF Yield	14022.45%
Dividend Yield	3.94%
ROE	5.45%
Debt / Equity	41.57%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	127.60%
Price To Book	0.91
Price Earnings Ratio	16.53
Price To FCF	0.01
Price To sales	1.69
EV / EBITDA	4.65

2. Murphy Oil's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Murphy Oil Corporation reported a robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with revenues and EPS exceeding analyst estimates. The company's EPS came in at $0.41, significantly higher than the estimated $0.16. Although revenue growth estimates for next year are modest at 2.2%, the company's strong balance sheet and flexible multi-basin portfolio position it well to manage near-term volatility. Operating costs averaged $9.39 per BOE, 20% less than in the prior quarter, reflecting the company's efforts to drive capital efficiencies.

Publication Date: Nov -09

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Production Surpassing Guidance:
                                                Achieved 200,000 BOE/day and 94,000 barrels/day of oil, exceeding high-end production guidance.
Operating Cost Reduction:
                                                Operating costs averaged $9.39/BOE, a 20% decline from the prior quarter.
Capital Efficiency:
                                                Capital expenditures totaled $164M, below guidance due to timing and efficiency improvements.
Exploration Resource Potential:
                                                Testing prospects across 3 continents with gross resource potential over 1 billion BOE.
2026 Capital Guidance:
                                                Outlined $1.1B–$1.3B for 2026, with flexibility to adjust based on commodity prices.

                                

Operational Highlights

The company made significant progress in international development and exploration, with several key projects on track. The Lac Da Vang (Golden Camel) field development is progressing as planned, with the first development well started drilling earlier in the quarter. The Hai Su Vang 2X Appraisal Well and Civette, the first of the 3-well exploration program in Cote d'Ivoire, are also on track. According to CEO Eric Hambly, the Civette prospect is similar in geology to the Calao discovery, with a mean of over 400 million barrels and upside of 1 billion barrel range.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 14.25 and an EV/EBITDA of 4.18, Murphy Oil's valuation appears reasonable. The company's ROE of 5.45% and ROIC of 4.79% indicate a decent return on equity and invested capital. The dividend yield of 4.48% is also attractive, providing a relatively stable source of return for investors. As the company navigates the commodity price environment, its flexible capital program and strong balance sheet should enable it to balance near-term production and free cash flow with investing for longer-term resource additions.

Guidance and Outlook

Murphy Oil has guided for 2026 capital expenditures of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion, with some potential adjustments based on commodity prices. The company is working to improve operational efficiency, with some wells showing initial rates 50% to 100% above historical performance. As the company looks to 2026, it is well-positioned to manage near-term volatility and stay on track to achieve its long-term goals.

3. NewsRoom

Fisher Asset Management LLC Sells 24,297 Shares of Murphy Oil Corporation $MUR

Dec -03

Source: defenseworld.net

GeoComputing Signs Agreement with Murphy Oil Subsidiary For RiVA Platform Deployment

Nov -17

Source: businesswire.com

Murphy Oil: Big Next 12 Months Planned

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

Murphy Oil Q3 Earnings & Sales Beat Estimates, New Wells Boost Volumes

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

Murphy Oil (MUR) Q3 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

Murphy Oil (MUR) Surpasses Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

Quarterly Stockholder Update by Murphy Oil Corporation

Nov -05

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.00%)

6. Segments

Exploration and Production

Expected Growth: 2.0%

Murphy Oil Corporation's Exploration and Production segment growth of 2.0% is driven by increased production volumes in the Eagle Ford Shale and Kaybob Duvernay plays, coupled with higher oil prices and improved operational efficiencies. Additionally, the company's strategic asset divestitures and focus on high-return projects have also contributed to this growth.

Corporate and Other

Expected Growth: 2.0%

Murphy Oil Corporation's Corporate and Other segment growth of 2.0% is driven by increased focus on cost optimization, efficient capital allocation, and strategic investments in digital transformation. Additionally, the segment benefits from improved working capital management, reduced overhead costs, and enhanced operational efficiencies.

7. Detailed Products

Refined Products

Murphy Oil Corporation refines crude oil into various petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and other petroleum-based products.

Crude Oil

Murphy Oil Corporation explores, produces, and markets crude oil, which is used as a raw material for refining into various petroleum products.

Natural Gas

Murphy Oil Corporation explores, produces, and markets natural gas, which is used as a clean-burning fuel for power generation, heating, and industrial processes.

Lubricants

Murphy Oil Corporation markets and distributes lubricants, such as motor oils, transmission fluids, and gear oils, for use in vehicles and industrial equipment.

Petrochemicals

Murphy Oil Corporation produces and markets petrochemicals, such as ethylene, propylene, and butadiene, which are used as building blocks for the production of plastics, fibers, and other chemicals.

8. Murphy Oil Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Murphy Oil Corporation operates in the energy industry, which has few substitutes. However, the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles poses a moderate threat to the company's operations.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Murphy Oil Corporation's customers, primarily retailers and wholesalers, have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong brand presence and diversified product offerings.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Murphy Oil Corporation relies on a diverse range of suppliers for its operations. While suppliers have some bargaining power, the company's scale and diversified supply chain mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The energy industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This limits the threat of new entrants to Murphy Oil Corporation's operations.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The energy industry is highly competitive, with numerous established players competing for market share. Murphy Oil Corporation faces intense rivalry from companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	22.28%
Debt Cost	6.83%
Equity Weight	77.72%
Equity Cost	15.01%
WACC	13.19%
Leverage	28.66%

11. Quality Control: Murphy Oil Corporation passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Matador Resources

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 8.8

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Permian Resources

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Northern Oil and Gas

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 8.7

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Magnolia Oil & Gas

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Murphy Oil

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Ovintiv

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

0.96%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

13.19%

Murphy Oil Corporation - US6267171022

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on MUR

1.c. Company Highlights

Average Quality

Medium Volatility

Average Yield

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Stable Momentum

Revenues Miss

Fairly Valued

Earnings Miss

Cheaper

Weak Momentum

Higher Yield

2. Murphy Oil's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Operational Highlights

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Guidance and Outlook

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.00%)

6. Segments

Exploration and Production

Expected Growth: 2.0%

Corporate and Other

Expected Growth: 2.0%

7. Detailed Products

Refined Products

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Lubricants

Petrochemicals

8. Murphy Oil Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Murphy Oil Corporation passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

33.01$

Current Price

33.01$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA