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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Expedia Group, Inc.operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally.The company operates through Retail, B2B, and trivago segments.


Its brand portfolio include Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand with localized websites; Hotels.com for marketing and distributing lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; Orbitz, Travelocity, and CheapTickets travel websites; ebookers, an online EMEA travel agent for travelers an array of travel options; Hotwire, which offers travel booking services; CarRentals.com, an online car rental booking service; Classic Vacations, a luxury travel specialist; and Expedia Cruise, a provider of advice for travelers booking cruises.The company's brand portfolio also comprise Expedia Partner Solutions, a business-to-business brand that provides travel and non-travel vertical, which includes corporate travel management, airlines, travel agents, online retailers and financial institutions; and Egencia that provides corporate travel management services.In addition, its brand portfolio consists of Trivago, a hotel metasearch website, which send referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites; and Expedia Group Media solutions.


Further, the company provides online travel services through its Wotif.com, lastminute.com.au, travel.com.au, Wotif.co.nz, and lastminute.co.nz brands; loyalty programs; hotel accommodations and alternative accommodations; and advertising and media services.It serves leisure and corporate travelers.The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc.


and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc.in March 2018.Expedia Group, Inc.


was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

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1.b. Last Insights on EXPE

Expedia Group's recent performance was negatively impacted by a significant increase in short interest, rising 22.8% in January to 7,503,582 shares. Additionally, Citigroup's downgrade of the stock from a buy rating to a lower price target of $225.00, down from $281.00, likely contributed to the decline. Despite a robust Q4 performance, with revenue rising 11.4% year-over-year to $3.55 billion, and earnings beating estimates at $3.78 per share, the stock faced selling pressure. Institutional investors, such as Glenmede Investment Management LP, trimmed their stakes, while others, like 44 Wealth Management LLC, made new investments.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Expedia's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Strong Finish to a Transformative Year

Expedia Group, Inc. reported a robust Q4 2025, with gross bookings and revenue growing 11% to $27 billion and $3.5 billion, respectively. The company's EBITDA margin expanded by nearly four points to 24%, driven by sustained momentum across its consumer-facing brands, B2B, and advertising. Adjusted EPS came in at $3.78, beating estimates of $3.46 and representing a 58% increase. The strong financial performance was underpinned by a 9% increase in booked room nights, driven by strength in the US, EMEA, and rest of the world.

Publication Date: Feb -15

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue and Booking Growth:: Q4 revenue hit $3.5B (+11%), with gross bookings surging to $27B (+11%), driven by 24% B2B growth to $8.7B and 5% B2C growth.
  • Margin Expansion:: EBITDA margins expanded to 24% (nearly 4 pts up), with adjusted EPS rising 58% to $3.78, reflecting operational efficiency and cost discipline.
  • Strategic Product Enhancements:: Apps/sites 30% faster YoY, AI-driven personalized experiences boosting attach rates, and lodging inventory broadened by 10% for improved traveler value.
  • Capital Returns and Liquidity:: $3.1B free cash flow in 2025, $5.7B unrestricted cash, 20% dividend hike to $0.48/share, and 1.1M shares repurchased, underscoring strong financial flexibility.
  • Future Guidance and AI Investment:: 2026 EBITDA margin expansion of 100–125 bps expected, with AI focus on natural language planning and LLM integrations, aligning with 6–8% gross booking growth targets.

Strategic Priorities and Product Enhancements

The company continued to make progress on its three strategic priorities: delivering more value to travelers, investing in growth opportunities, and driving operating efficiencies and margin expansion. Expedia's product enhancements, including upgraded checkout paths, new payment options, and the use of AI to deliver personalized experiences, have contributed to the growth. The company's sites and apps are 30% faster than a year ago, and loyalty members grew by mid-single digits.

B2B and Advertising Growth

B2B bookings grew 24% to $8.7 billion, with double-digit growth across all regions. Advertising revenue also grew 19%, driven by the company's ability to leverage its brands and provide value to its partners. The B2B business is expected to continue growing, with a strong double-digit growth trajectory, although investments in new products and lines of business may weigh on margins in the short term.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 20.17 and an EV/EBITDA of 8.61, Expedia's valuation multiples suggest that the market is pricing in a certain level of growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 7.1%, which is slightly higher than the company's expected growth rate. The company's guidance for Q1 and full-year 2026 reflects stable, healthy growth on a constant currency basis, with gross bookings growth expected to be between 6-8% and revenue growth expected to be between 6-9%.

Margin Expansion and Cash Flow

The company expects EBITDA margins to expand by 100-125 basis points in 2026, driven by effective marketing, team execution, and scaling benefits. Expedia ended the quarter with $5.7 billion of unrestricted cash and short-term investments, and free cash flow for the year was $3.1 billion. The company's ability to generate strong cash flow and its commitment to returning value to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases are positives.

3. NewsRoom

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Monday Morning's Movers: STX, EXPE & CCL Get Upgrades

Mar -30

Source: youtube.com

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Options Corner: EXPE Upgrade After Shares Slide 25%

Mar -30

Source: youtube.com

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Here Are Monday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Analog Devices, CrowdStrike, Expedia, Instacart, Live Nation, Qualcomm, Seagate, Starbucks, and More

Mar -30

Source: 247wallst.com

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Expedia's B2B Expansion Accelerates: A Scalable Growth Lever Ahead?

Mar -27

Source: zacks.com

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E. Ohman J or Asset Management AB Invests $1.02 Million in Expedia Group, Inc. $EXPE

Mar -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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Expedia Group, Inc. $EXPE Shares Sold by Assenagon Asset Management S.A.

Mar -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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Expedia vs. Booking Holdings: Which Travel Stock Is a Stronger Pick?

Mar -24

Source: zacks.com

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Expedia Benefits From Strong Travel Demand: More Growth Ahead?

Mar -23

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.75%)

6. Segments

B2C

Expected Growth: 6.5%

B2C growth driven by increasing online travel adoption, mobile bookings, and expanding presence in Asia-Pacific. Strong brand recognition, competitive pricing, and user-friendly interfaces also contribute to growth. Additionally, strategic partnerships, loyalty programs, and personalized marketing efforts enhance customer retention and acquisition, resulting in a 6.5% growth rate.

B2B

Expected Growth: 7.5%

Expedia Group's B2B segment growth of 7.5% is driven by increasing adoption of its B2B travel platform, Expedia Partner Solutions, among travel agencies and tour operators. Additionally, the company's focus on expanding its accommodation inventory, improving user experience, and investing in digital marketing initiatives have contributed to the growth.

Trivago

Expected Growth: 6.0%

Trivago's 6.0% growth is driven by increasing online travel agency (OTA) market share, strong brand recognition, and effective marketing strategies. Additionally, the company's focus on hotel search and price comparison, as well as its expanding global presence, contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Expedia.com

A full-service online travel agency that allows users to book flights, hotels, car rentals, and vacation packages.

Hotels.com

A specialized online travel agency focused on booking hotels and accommodations.

VRBO (Vacation Rentals by Owner)

A platform that allows homeowners to rent out their properties to travelers.

Egencia

A corporate travel management company that helps businesses manage their travel programs.

Orbitz

An online travel agency that allows users to book flights, hotels, and car rentals.

Travelocity

An online travel agency that allows users to book flights, hotels, and car rentals.

Expedia Partner Solutions

A B2B platform that provides travel technology and services to partners.

Expedia Affiliate Network

A program that allows partners to earn commissions by promoting Expedia's travel products.

8. Expedia Group, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Expedia Group, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have various options for booking travel, including direct booking with airlines and hotels, as well as other online travel agencies.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Expedia Group, Inc. has a large customer base, but individual customers have significant bargaining power due to the ease of switching to alternative booking platforms.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Expedia Group, Inc. has a large portfolio of travel suppliers, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers, giving the company more negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The online travel agency market has high barriers to entry, including significant investments in technology and marketing, which reduces the threat of new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The online travel agency market is highly competitive, with Expedia Group, Inc. competing with other major players such as Booking Holdings and Airbnb, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 80.37%
Debt Cost 5.52%
Equity Weight 19.63%
Equity Cost 13.14%
WACC 7.02%
Leverage 409.32%

11. Quality Control: Expedia Group, Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Travel + Leisure

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Expedia

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Tripadvisor

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Carnival

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Norwegian Cruise Line

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Arhaus

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 4.6

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

225.3$

Current Price

225.3$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows