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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services a range of Ford trucks, commercial cars and vans, sport utility vehicles, and Lincoln luxury vehicles worldwide.It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, and Ford Pro; Ford Next; and Ford Credit segments.The company sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments.


It also engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers.In addition, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers.Further, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs.


The company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

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1.b. Last Insights on F

Ford Motor Company's recent performance was driven by strong Q3 results, with revenue of $50.53B and EPS of $0.45 beating estimates. The company's execution was solid, despite EV losses. JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock, raising its price target to $14.00, citing an overweight rating. Ford's guidance cut did not hinder its stock price, which reached a new 52-week high of $13.97. The company's quarterly earnings of $0.45 per share exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.38 per share.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Ford's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Quarter with Record Revenue

Ford Motor Company's third-quarter 2025 earnings call highlighted a strong quarter with record revenue of $50.5 billion and adjusted EBIT of $2.6 billion. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.45, beating analyst estimates of $0.3539. The revenue figure was a notable achievement, driven by the continued strength of Ford Pro, which saw revenue grow 11% to $17.4 billion, with EBIT increasing 9% to $2 billion. The company's adjusted EBIT margin was robust, with Ford Blue achieving EBIT of $1.5 billion. Ford Model e delivered revenue and volume growth, although EBIT losses increased due to lower net pricing and increased spending on next-generation vehicles.

Publication Date: Oct -26

📋 Highlights
  • Record Revenue and EBIT:: Q3 2025 revenue hit $50.5 billion, adjusted EBIT reached $2.6 billion, despite $700 million net tariff headwinds.
  • Segment Performance:: Ford Pro revenue surged to $17.4 billion (+11%) with $2 billion EBIT (+9%); Ford Blue reported $1.5 billion EBIT.
  • Novelis Fire Impact:: Q4 EBIT to drop $1.5–$2 billion from the Oswego fire, though $1 billion of this will be mitigated in 2026.
  • 2025 Guidance:: Adjusted EBIT expected at $6–$6.5 billion, with adjusted free cash flow of $2–$3 billion amid $1 billion tariff benefits.
  • Warranty Cost Reduction:: Q3 warranty costs fell $450 million YoY, with $1 billion expected savings in 2026 due to improved vehicle quality.

Segment Performance

Ford Pro drove a solid quarter, with revenue and EBIT growth driven by a robust double-digit margin. Ford Blue's EBIT was $1.5 billion, while Ford Model e's revenue and volume growth were tempered by increased EBIT losses. The company's warranty expense improved year-over-year, with a $450 million reduction in Q3 warranty costs. Ford expects total warranty costs, including coverage and FSA costs, to decrease next year, with a $1 billion expected reduction in warranty costs in 2026.

Outlook and Guidance

Ford updated its 2025 outlook, expecting an adjusted EBIT of $6 billion to $6.5 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $2 billion to $3 billion. For 2026, the company expects to recover at least $1 billion related to the Novelis fire and plans to deliver another $1 billion of cost improvements. The company also announced a fourth-quarter regular dividend of $0.15 per share payable on December 1. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -1.7%, although the company's strong balance sheet and low leverage provide a foundation for future growth.

Valuation and Metrics

Ford's current valuation metrics are as follows: P/E Ratio of 11.71, P/B Ratio of 1.16, P/S Ratio of 0.29, EV/EBITDA of 17.78, Dividend Yield of 5.42%, and Free Cash Flow Yield of 21.99%. The company's ROIC is 1.33%, while ROE is 10.35%. With a Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 12.76, Ford's leverage is relatively high, although the company's strong cash balance provides some offset. The dividend yield is attractive, and the company's commitment to returning capital to shareholders is evident in its regular dividend payout.

Operational Highlights

Ford's profit trend in the core business, excluding tariffs and the aluminum issue, shows progress with material cost improvements, credit business performance, and pricing and volume strength. The company assumes similar tariff impacts next year, with $1 billion of benefits from policy changes. Ford's EV North America market is expected to change significantly by 2027-2035, and the company has designed its next-gen EV platform, UEV, for affordability and competitiveness.

3. NewsRoom

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Market Today: WBD Sale Bids, Meta Cuts, Apple Shake-Up

Dec -04

Source: gurufocus.com

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Ford CEO hails Trump fuel standards reset as a 'victory' for affordability and common sense

Dec -04

Source: foxbusiness.com

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Stock Market Live December 4: S&P 500 (VOO) Gains on Lighter Regulation for Carmakers

Dec -04

Source: 247wallst.com

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First Look: Insurers, Auto Rules, AI and Fed Jitters

Dec -04

Source: gurufocus.com

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Joe Biden Credited GM CEO Mary Barra For EVs, But She Said Credit Should Go To Elon Musk

Dec -04

Source: feeds.benzinga.com

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Gavin Newsom Slams Trump For Letting China Dominate EVs — Criticizes CAFE Rollback Which Will 'Poison' Air: 'We'll Fight Tooth And Nail…'

Dec -04

Source: feeds.benzinga.com

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Ford CEO Jim Farley Hails Trump's CAFE Rollback, Reaffirms Investment In US-Made Cars—Sean Duffy Says Decision Will Save $109 Billion For Americans

Dec -04

Source: feeds.benzinga.com

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Market Today: Fed hopes lift stocks; AWS AI rollout; Prada-Versace deal

Dec -03

Source: gurufocus.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.80%)

6. Segments

Ford Blue

Expected Growth: 4.5%

The growth rate is lower than the global average due to the decline of ICE vehicles, but the segment's established customer base and consistent demand will help maintain a relatively stable revenue stream.

Ford Pro

Expected Growth: 6.2%

The growth rate is higher than the global average due to the increasing demand for commercial vehicles and services, driven by the growth of e-commerce and logistics.

Ford Model E

Expected Growth: 12.0%

The growth rate is significantly higher than the global average due to the rapidly increasing demand for electric vehicles, driven by government regulations and declining battery costs.

Ford Credit

Expected Growth: 5.8%

The growth rate is in line with the global average, as the demand for automotive financing is relatively stable and tied to the overall automotive market.

Ford Next

Expected Growth: 10.0%

The growth rate is higher than the global average due to the potential for high returns from investments in new technologies and businesses, such as mobility services and autonomous vehicles.

Unallocated Amounts and Eliminations

Expected Growth: 0.0%

The growth rate is lower than the global average, as this segment represents eliminations and corporate activities that are not expected to drive revenue growth.

7. Detailed Products

Ford F-Series

A line of pickup trucks that are known for their durability and reliability

Ford Mustang

A high-performance sports car with a rich history and iconic design

Ford Explorer

A mid-size SUV that offers ample space, comfort, and versatility

Ford Transit

A line of commercial vans designed for cargo and passenger transportation

Ford Focus

A compact car that offers fuel efficiency, agility, and advanced technology

Ford Bronco

A rugged and off-road capable SUV that offers adventure and excitement

Ford Ranger

A mid-size pickup truck that offers capability, durability, and versatility

Ford Edge

A mid-size SUV that offers comfort, technology, and versatility

Ford Escape

A compact SUV that offers fuel efficiency, agility, and advanced technology

Ford F-650/F-750

A line of medium-duty trucks designed for commercial use

Ford Transit Connect

A compact van designed for cargo and passenger transportation

8. Ford Motor Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Ford Motor Company faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have alternative options such as public transportation, ride-hailing services, and other modes of transportation.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Ford Motor Company faces high bargaining power from customers, as they have many options to choose from and can easily switch to competitors' products.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Ford Motor Company has a strong bargaining power over its suppliers, as it is a large and established company with significant purchasing power.

Threat Of New Entrants

Ford Motor Company faces low threat from new entrants, as the automotive industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Ford Motor Company operates in a highly competitive industry, with intense rivalry among established players, including General Motors, Toyota, and Volkswagen.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 77.94%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 22.06%
Equity Cost 12.10%
WACC 5.75%
Leverage 353.28%

11. Quality Control: Ford Motor Company passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Booking

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 8.7

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Ford

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 2.5

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
PulteGroup

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 8.8

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Lennar

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.5

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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General Motors

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 2.5

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Tesla

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 0.0

Growth: 8.7

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

13.03$

Current Price

13.03$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows