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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Forward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in the United States and Canada.It operates in two segments, Expedited Freight and Intermodal.The Expedited Freight segment provides expedited regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services; local pick-up and delivery services; and other services, which include final mile, truckload, shipment consolidation and deconsolidation, warehousing, customs brokerage, and other handling.


This segment also offers expedited truckload brokerage, dedicated fleet, and high security and temperature-controlled logistics services.The Intermodal segment provides intermodal container drayage services; and contract, and container freight station warehouse and handling services.It serves freight forwarders, third-party logistics companies, integrated air cargo carriers and passenger, passenger and cargo airlines, steamship lines, and retailers.


Forward Air Corporation was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Greeneville, Tennessee.

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1.b. Last Insights on FWRD

The recent 3-month performance of Forward Air Corporation was negatively impacted by the imposition of broad tariffs on most of the world, announced on April 2, 2025, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) order. This move led to a decline in revenue from shipments, as evident from the company's preliminary financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2025. The tariffs, which affect most of the world, have roiled markets, causing transportation companies like Forward Air to lose ground.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Forward Air's Q3 2025 Earnings: Navigating Challenges Amidst Transformation

Forward Air reported a consolidated EBITDA of $78 million, in line with the previous quarter, and adjusted EBITDA of $75 million, slightly higher than the $74 million in Q2 2025. The company's EPS came in at -$0.52, missing estimates of -$0.13. Revenue for the Omni Logistics segment increased by $12 million to $340 million, with reported EBITDA rising from $30 million to $33 million. The Expedited Freight segment reported EBITDA of $30 million with a margin of 11.5%, while the Intermodal segment reported EBITDA of $8 million.

Publication Date: Nov -23

📋 Highlights
  • Strategic Alternatives Review: ongoing with multiple interested parties, evaluating potential sale, merger, or transactions.
  • Consolidated EBITDA: stable at $78M Q3 2025, with adjusted EBITDA at $75M (up from $74M Q2 2025).
  • Omni Logistics: revenue rose $12M to $340M, EBITDA increased to $33M (from $30M prior quarter).
  • Liquidity: totaled $413M as of Q3 2025 ($140M cash + $273M revolver availability).
  • Intermodal EBITDA: remained steady at $8-10M quarterly, while LTL slowdown prompted cost realignment and productivity optimizations.

Segment Performance

The Omni Logistics segment achieved its highest revenue and EBITDA since the transaction in Q1 2024, driven by its diversified business model, which includes a warehouse component that provides stability. As Jamie Pierson noted, "Omni's business is not as seasonal due to its warehouse side, which provides stability." The Intermodal segment continues to generate $8-10 million in EBITDA per quarter, while the LTL business is experiencing a slowdown.

Transformation Progress

Forward Air is making progress in its transformation plan, including unifying operations under a new regional structure and rationalizing its tech stack. The company is focused on delivering industry-leading quality of service while managing costs and prudently managing the business. The One Ground Network is expected to form a more cohesive and agile organization.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/S Ratio of 0.26 and EV/EBITDA of 3.68, the stock appears to be undervalued, considering the company's efforts to transform its business. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 5.2% next year. However, the company's EPS is negative, and the ROE is -71.54%, indicating significant challenges. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 1.26, suggesting a manageable debt burden.

Risk Factors

The biggest upside potential driver for EBITDA is operating leverage in the Expedited segment, while risks include a prolonged downturn in the environment. Management remains confident in their strategy, but further macro deterioration is a concern. The company's ability to navigate these challenges will be crucial to its long-term success.

3. NewsRoom

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5 Transport Stocks Are Spiking After Slumps. Analysts Debate Their Future.

Dec -03

Source:

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New Strong Sell Stocks for Nov. 6

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

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Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Forward Air (FWRD) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -05

Source: zacks.com

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Forward Air Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results

Nov -05

Source: businesswire.com

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Forward Air (FWRD) Projected to Post Earnings on Wednesday

Nov -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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Forward Air Corporation Announces Timing of Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Oct -16

Source: businesswire.com

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Forward Air Raises $526,000 for Veterans at 2025 Drive for Hope Golf Tournament

Oct -06

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.69%)

6. Segments

Expedited Freight

Expected Growth: 4.65%

The 4.65% growth in Expedited Freight from Forward Air Corporation is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, rising need for time-sensitive shipments, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, investments in digitalization and process improvements have enhanced operational efficiency, allowing for faster transit times and higher customer satisfaction.

Intermodal

Expected Growth: 4.83%

The 4.83% growth in Intermodal from Forward Air Corporation is driven by increasing demand for efficient and cost-effective transportation solutions, expansion of e-commerce, and investments in digitalization and infrastructure. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships and capacity additions have enabled it to capitalize on the growing need for intermodal services.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Forward Air Corporation's 4.65% growth is driven by increasing demand for expedited freight services, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency, cost savings initiatives, and investments in technology have contributed to its growth. Furthermore, the rise of e-commerce and the need for fast and reliable transportation solutions have also fueled the company's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Truckload Services

Forward Air's truckload services provide expedited and time-definite transportation solutions for high-priority freight, offering flexible and customized logistics solutions.

Less Than Truckload (LTL) Services

Forward Air's LTL services offer cost-effective and efficient transportation solutions for smaller shipments, with a focus on speed, reliability, and flexibility.

Intermodal Services

Forward Air's intermodal services combine the efficiency of rail transportation with the flexibility of trucking, providing a cost-effective and environmentally friendly solution.

Final Mile Services

Forward Air's final mile services provide customized, last-mile delivery solutions for high-value, time-sensitive, and oversized shipments.

Warehouse and Distribution Services

Forward Air's warehouse and distribution services offer customized logistics solutions, including inventory management, order fulfillment, and freight consolidation.

Dedicated Fleet Services

Forward Air's dedicated fleet services provide customized, dedicated transportation solutions for businesses with unique logistics requirements.

8. Forward Air Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Forward Air Corporation is moderate due to the availability of alternative transportation modes such as trucking and rail.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the specialized nature of Forward Air Corporation's services, which limits the ability of customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate due to the availability of multiple suppliers for fuel, equipment, and other essential inputs.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the air cargo transportation industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory compliance.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the air cargo transportation industry, with multiple players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 70.74%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 29.26%
Equity Cost 9.25%
WACC 5.50%
Leverage 241.74%

11. Quality Control: Forward Air Corporation passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Pitney Bowes

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 1.0

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Intevac

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Cryoport

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Air T

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Radiant Logistics

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Forward Air

A-Score: 2.3/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 1.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

25.9$

Current Price

25.9$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows