Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally.The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses.It also manufactures and distributes private label brands, as well as purchases and resells branded products in non-FOSSIL branded retail stores.


The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, DKNY, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, PUMA, TORY BURCH, Skechers, and BMW.The company sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department stores, specialty retail stores, specialty watch and jewelry stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, and retail concessions, as well as sells its products on airlines and cruise ships.As of January 2, 2022, it operated 370 stores worldwide.


The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc.and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc.in May 2013.


Fossil Group, Inc.was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on FOSL

Fossil Group's recent performance was driven by a turnaround plan, margin gains, and renewed brand energy. The company's rating was upgraded to Outperform, reflecting early success in its turnaround plan. Strong watch sales and margin gains contributed to the turnaround plan, despite headwinds from weak DTC sales. The company's Q1 loss narrowed year-over-year, with watch sales driving the turnaround plan. Fossil Group also appointed Laks Lakshmanan as Chief Supply Chain Officer, effective June 16, 2025, to enhance its supply chain operations.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Fossil Group's Turnaround Efforts Show Promise Despite Q3 Sales Decline

Fossil Group reported Q3 net sales of $267 million, a 7% decline in constant currency versus the prior year. The gross margin came in at 48.7%, down 70 basis points versus last year. The company's actual EPS was $-0.63, significantly worse than estimates of $-0.02. Despite the decline in sales, Fossil achieved a reduction in discount rates, improved product margins, and an increased mix of higher-margin traditional watch sales, as highlighted by CFO Randy Greben.

Publication Date: Nov -16

📋 Highlights
  • Balance Sheet Restructuring:: Completed bond restructuring extended debt maturity to 2029 and secured $32.5M in new capital.
  • Q3 Financial Performance:: Net sales fell 7% to $267M, with gross margin at 48.7% (down 70 bps YoY), but discount rates and inventory efficiency improved.
  • Brand Campaign Impact:: Nick Jonas-led campaign generated 6B impressions, boosting website/store traffic and driving higher-margin traditional watch sales.
  • Inventory Optimization:: Global net working capital dropped $90M YoY, with 26% inventory reduction despite 7% sales decline, reflecting tighter inventory control.
  • Regional & Channel Dynamics:: Wholesale grew 3% (vs. 22% retail decline in CC), driven by reduced promotions in the U.S., while India and Japan outperformed China’s shrinking market.

Operational Highlights

The company's design and storytelling engines drove the launch of a new Fossil brand platform with Nick Jonas as a global brand ambassador, generating nearly 6 billion impressions and driving incremental traffic to both the website and stores. Fossil also saw success with collaborations with Fantastic Four and Galactus. Average unit retail increased in both wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels, reflecting a strong combination of lower promotional activity, product mix, and pricing architecture.

Balance Sheet Strengthening

Fossil successfully completed the exchange of its 7% senior notes due 2026 for new 9.5% notes due 2029, extending the maturity of its debt by 3 years and bringing $32.5 million in incremental new money financing. The company also reported a decline in global net working capital by approximately $90 million year-over-year, reflecting lower inventory levels and tighter management of receivables and payables.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/S Ratio of 0.1 and an EV/EBITDA of 13.14, the market appears to be pricing in a significant recovery. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 242.2%. However, the current P/E Ratio of -1.48 and ROE of -48.75% indicate that the company still faces significant challenges. Fossil reiterated its full-year guidance, expecting worldwide net sales to decline in the mid-teens and adjusted operating margin to be breakeven to slightly positive.

Regional Performance

The company saw varying performance across regions, with India and Japan doing well, while China is still shrinking. Franco Fogliato emphasized the importance of being a smaller but more profitable company, with efforts to manage working capital and inventory resulting in a leaner inventory position and improved gross margins.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Fossil Group (NASDAQ:FOSL) Stock Passes Above Two Hundred Day Moving Average – Should You Sell?

Dec -03

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Fossil Stock Sinks 18% as Q3 Loss Widens Y/Y Amid DTC Weakness

Nov -19

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

Fossil Group: Operational Progress Masked By Royalty Payment Obligations, Strong Buy

Nov -17

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -14

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Fossil Group, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -13

Source: globenewswire.com

Card image cap

1,084 Shares in SPDR S&P Fossil Fuel Reserves Free ETF $SPYX Purchased by Hantz Financial Services Inc.

Nov -06

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Announcement Regarding Fossil Group Plan Meeting to Be Held on Thursday, November 6, 2025

Oct -30

Source: globenewswire.com

Card image cap

Fossil Group Announces Notice of Plan Meeting

Oct -16

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.73%)

6. Segments

Americas

Expected Growth: 4.5%

The Americas segment of Fossil Group, Inc. is expected to grow driven by increasing demand for fashion accessories, smartwatches, and wearable devices, particularly in the US and Canada. The growing popularity of online shopping and e-commerce platforms will also contribute to the segment's growth.

Europe

Expected Growth: 4.5%

The European segment of Fossil Group, Inc. is expected to grow driven by increasing demand for fashion accessories, particularly in the watch and jewelry categories. The region's growing middle class and increasing online shopping penetration will also contribute to growth.

Asia

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Growing middle-class population, increasing demand for luxury goods, and expansion of e-commerce platforms drive sales of watches, jewelry, and leather goods in Asia, fueling Fossil Group's growth in the region.

Corporate

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Fossil Group's growth is driven by increasing demand for fashion accessories, particularly in the watch and jewelry segments. The company's focus on innovation, sustainability, and digitalization will also contribute to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Watches

Fossil Group, Inc. offers a wide range of stylish and functional watches for men and women, including smartwatches, hybrid smartwatches, and traditional timepieces.

Jewelry

Fossil Group, Inc. designs and manufactures a variety of fashionable jewelry pieces, including necklaces, earrings, bracelets, and rings.

Handbags

Fossil Group, Inc. offers a range of stylish and functional handbags, including totes, crossbodies, and backpacks.

Small Leather Goods

Fossil Group, Inc. designs and manufactures a variety of small leather goods, including wallets, card cases, and keychains.

Fossil Smartwatches

Fossil Group, Inc. offers a range of smartwatches that integrate with popular fitness apps and provide notifications, music control, and more.

Licensed Brands

Fossil Group, Inc. partners with popular brands, such as Disney, to design and manufacture licensed products, including watches, jewelry, and accessories.

8. Fossil Group, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Fossil Group, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes due to the presence of alternative fashion accessories and watches from other brands.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Fossil Group, Inc. has a high bargaining power of customers due to the presence of many competitors in the fashion accessories and watches market, giving customers a wide range of choices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Fossil Group, Inc. has a low bargaining power of suppliers due to its large scale of operations and diversified supply chain, giving it more negotiating power over its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

Fossil Group, Inc. faces a moderate threat of new entrants due to the presence of barriers to entry, such as high capital requirements and established brand recognition.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Fossil Group, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry among competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 49.68%
Debt Cost 5.58%
Equity Weight 50.32%
Equity Cost 14.43%
WACC 10.03%
Leverage 98.74%

11. Quality Control: Fossil Group, Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Brilliant Earth

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Movado

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Envela

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 3.2

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
The RealReal

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Fossil

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Charles & Colvard

A-Score: 2.6/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 1.0

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

3.76$

Current Price

3.76$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows