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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies.It develops imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that is in Phase 3 clinical trials, which inhibits the uncontrolled proliferation of malignant stem and progenitor cells in hematologic myeloid malignancies for the treatment of low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes and intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis.The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on GERN

Geron Corporation's recent performance was negatively impacted by a quarterly loss of $0.03 per share, in line with estimates, but lagging revenue expectations. A "Hold" rating from analysts, with two sell and three buy ratings, adds to investor uncertainty. The company's Rytelo sales growth stalled, with Q3 revenues of $47.2M, down from $49M in Q2. Leadership changes, including the departure of COO Andrew Grethlein and CCO Jim Ziegler, may also be a concern. An investigation by Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. on behalf of long-term stockholders may also weigh on investor sentiment.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Geron's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look at Financials and Operational Progress

Geron Corporation reported net product revenue of $47.2 million for Q3 2025, reflecting a demand for RYTELO that was down 3% compared to the previous quarter. Despite this, new patient starts in the first and second line increased to 36% from 30% in Q2. The company's cash and marketable securities stood at approximately $420 million as of September 30, 2025. The EPS for the quarter came in at -$0.03, slightly better than the estimated -$0.03667. Total net revenue for Q3 2025 was $47 million, up from $28 million in Q3 2024.

Publication Date: Nov -14

📋 Highlights
  • Q3 Net Revenue Growth:: Net product revenue reached $47.2 million, up from $28 million in Q3 2024, with $420 million in cash reserves as of September 2025.
  • New Patient Start Growth:: New patient starts in first and second line increased to 36% in Q3, up from 30% in Q2, despite a 3% decline in RYTELO demand.
  • EU Expansion Prep:: First RYTELO shipment to Germany completed under an early access program, with plans for EU commercialization in 2026.
  • Operational Efficiency:: Operating expenses targeted to remain within $250–260 million in 2025, with reduced IT investments and expanded GPO contracts.

Operational Highlights and Future Plans

The company is focusing on increasing awareness for RYTELO among U.S. healthcare professionals through a comprehensive account plan, aiming to grow the U.S. prescriber base and drive sales. Geron has also completed the first shipment of RYTELO to Germany under a named patient early access program and is preparing for commercialization in select EU markets in 2026. As Harout Semerjian noted, "shifting physician behavior and building a brand in hematology takes time," indicating a long-term commitment to the success of RYTELO.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Analysts estimate a revenue growth rate of 39.9% for Geron next year. Currently, the company's valuation metrics show a P/S Ratio of 4.0 and an EV/EBITDA of -17.34, indicating that the market is pricing in significant growth potential. With a current cash position of $420 million and a focus on managing operating expenses within the $250-260 million range for 2025, Geron appears well-positioned to invest in the commercialization of RYTELO and drive future growth.

Key Takeaways and Future Expectations

Geron's management is confident in its ability to execute on key areas, including brand awareness and education, to drive growth in 2026. While the company is not providing specific guidance for 2026, the progress made in Q3 2025 and the steps taken to improve operational efficiency suggest a positive outlook. As the company continues to focus on delivering RYTELO to eligible patients, investors will be watching closely for signs of revenue growth and operational success.

3. NewsRoom

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Blood Cancer Therapeutics Reach Critical Commercial and Clinical Inflection Points

Dec -04

Source: prnewswire.com

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Stock Traders Purchase Large Volume of Put Options on Geron (NASDAQ:GERN)

Nov -15

Source: defenseworld.net

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Geron: Rytelo Launch Stalls Out, EU Partnership And IMpactMF Results Could Help

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Geron Corporation (GERN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Geron (GERN) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -05

Source: zacks.com

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Geron Plans to Announce Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results on November 5, 2025

Oct -27

Source: businesswire.com

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GERON (GERN) INVESTIGATION ALERT: Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. is Investigating Geron Corporation on Behalf of Long-Term Stockholders and Encourages Investors to Contact the Firm

Oct -23

Source: globenewswire.com

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Geron Corporation: Early Momentum, Strong Leadership Plus Clear Path To Growth - Why I Buy

Oct -23

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (25.00%)

6. Segments

Development of Therapeutic Products for Oncology

Expected Growth: 28.0%

The oncology market is expected to grow rapidly due to the increasing incidence of cancer and the need for innovative treatments. Geron Corporation's focus on developing therapeutic products for oncology is expected to drive revenue growth. The company's strong pipeline and expertise in this area will help in expanding its market share, driving growth above the global average of 25%. The increasing adoption of targeted therapies will also contribute to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Imetelstat

A telomerase inhibitor that targets cancer stem cells, which are thought to be responsible for the initiation and progression of cancer.

GRN163L

A telomerase inhibitor that targets cancer stem cells, which are thought to be responsible for the initiation and progression of cancer.

GRN163

A telomerase inhibitor that targets cancer stem cells, which are thought to be responsible for the initiation and progression of cancer.

8. Geron Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Geron Corporation's products are highly specialized and have limited substitutes, reducing the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Geron Corporation's customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong brand reputation and limited alternatives.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Geron Corporation's suppliers have moderate bargaining power due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for raw materials.

Threat Of New Entrants

The biotechnology industry is highly competitive, and new entrants can easily disrupt the market, posing a significant threat to Geron Corporation.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The biotechnology industry is highly competitive, and Geron Corporation faces intense rivalry from established players, leading to a high level of competition.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 25.06%
Debt Cost 6.68%
Equity Weight 74.94%
Equity Cost 6.68%
WACC 6.68%
Leverage 33.43%

11. Quality Control: Geron Corporation passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals

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Growth: 9.0

Quality: 9.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

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TG Therapeutics

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Janux Therapeutics

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Revolution Medicines

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Quality: 6.4

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Momentum: 4.0

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Geron

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.7

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Iovance Bio

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.31$

Current Price

1.31$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows