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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Grand Canyon Education, Inc.provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States.The company's technology services include learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; academic services comprises program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites; and counseling services and support include admission, financial aid, and field experience and other counseling services.


It also offers marketing and communication services, such as lead acquisition, digital communications strategy, brand identity, market research, media planning and strategy, video, and business intelligence and data science; and back-office services comprising finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services.The company, through its subsidiary, Orbis Education Services, LLC, supports healthcare education programs for 27 universities.Grand Canyon Education, Inc.


was founded in 1949 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

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1.b. Last Insights on LOPE

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. faced negative drivers, including a decrease in institutional investor holdings. Foresight Group Ltd Liability Partnership reduced its stake by 11.1%, while Envestnet Asset Management Inc. and AlphaQuest LLC decreased their positions by 2.5% and 87%, respectively. Additionally, the company's shares hit a new 52-week low. The short interest in the stock increased by 24.3% in December. These actions may indicate a lack of confidence in the company's prospects. Hillsdale Investment Management Inc. took a new position, purchasing 15,100 shares. The company's Q4 2025 earnings call transcript was released.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Grand Canyon Education's Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Beat Expectations

Grand Canyon Education (GCE) reported a robust fourth quarter 2025, with service revenue reaching $308.1 million, a 5.3% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations. The company's operating income and operating margin for the quarter were $108.1 million and 35.1%, respectively. Net income came in at $86.7 million, with GAAP diluted income per share of $3.14 and non-GAAP diluted income per share of $3.21, beating estimates of $3.19. The strong financial performance was driven by an 8.7% increase in online enrollment and 18.7% hybrid growth, excluding closed sites.

Publication Date: Feb -20

📋 Highlights
  • Online & Hybrid Enrollment Growth:: Online enrollment rose 8.7%, hybrid enrollment increased 18.7% (excluding closed sites), totaling 107,000 online and 25,000 on-campus students.
  • Hybrid Campus Expansion:: 47 hybrid campuses launched to address healthcare shortages, with 16.6% Q4 hybrid enrollment growth and 20,536 students in 8-week online courses.
  • Q4 Financial Performance:: Revenue hit $308.1M (+5.3% YoY), operating margin at 35.1%, net income of $86.7M, and non-GAAP EPS of $3.21.
  • Share Repurchases:: $100M spent repurchasing 957,781 shares, leaving $284.6M remaining under authorization, reflecting stock undervaluation.
  • 2026 Guidance:: Revenue growth above consensus, with mid-to-high single-digit online enrollment growth and high single-digit ground enrollment growth projected.

Enrollment Growth Drivers

The company's online campus saw mid-single digit new starts in the fourth quarter, with total enrollment growth of 8.7%. Hybrid campus enrollment increased 16.6% in the fourth quarter, with 18.7% growth excluding closed sites. GCE has implemented science and gen ed courses that can be delivered online in 8 weeks, with 20,536 students enrolled so far. Chairman and CEO Brian Mueller emphasized the importance of flexibility, speed, and scalability in higher education, citing GCE's model as an example.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 19.63 and an EV/EBITDA of 14.13, GCE's valuation appears reasonable considering its strong growth prospects. The company's ROE of 28.22% and ROIC of 26.12% indicate a high level of profitability. The current share price implies a certain level of growth, which is expected to continue with a projected revenue growth of 7.2% next year.

Guidance and Outlook

GCE's guidance for 2026 projects revenue growth, with the midpoint above consensus estimates. The revenue range assumes GCU ground enrollment will be 21,900 in the spring, 8,500 to 8,800 in the summer, and 24,900 to 25,600 in the fall. Online enrollment growth is expected to be in the mid-to-high single digits, while ground enrollment growth will be in the high single digits. The company will continue to use its excess cash to repurchase shares, as the Board believes the stock is materially undervalued.

Corporate Partnerships and Regulatory Environment

Brian Mueller explained that GCU is betting on growing to 50,000 students due to increased enrollments on the front end, which will make up for lost revenue in the fourth year. The company is also developing corporate partnerships, with 1/3 of GCU's starts coming from working directly with 5,500 employers. CFO Dan Bachus mentioned that regulatory changes will have little to no impact on the company, as GCU's tuition rates are well below loan caps.

3. NewsRoom

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AFYA vs. LOPE: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?

Mar -16

Source: zacks.com

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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. $LOPE Stock Position Raised by Algert Global LLC

Mar -15

Source: defenseworld.net

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Intech Investment Management LLC Sells 5,074 Shares of Grand Canyon Education, Inc. $LOPE

Mar -09

Source: defenseworld.net

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Hillsdale Investment Management Inc. Takes Position in Grand Canyon Education, Inc. $LOPE

Feb -23

Source: defenseworld.net

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Grand Canyon Education (NASDAQ:LOPE) Reaches New 52-Week Low – What’s Next?

Feb -22

Source: defenseworld.net

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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -19

Source: seekingalpha.com

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GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC. REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER 2025 RESULTS

Feb -18

Source: prnewswire.com

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Envestnet Asset Management Inc. Lowers Stock Holdings in Grand Canyon Education, Inc. $LOPE

Feb -11

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.00%)

6. Segments

Education Services

Expected Growth: 6.0%

Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s 6.0% growth in Education Services is driven by increasing demand for online education, strategic partnerships, and expansion of degree programs. Additionally, the company's focus on affordability, flexibility, and student outcomes has led to higher student retention rates, contributing to revenue growth.

7. Detailed Products

Online Degree Programs

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. offers a wide range of online degree programs in fields such as business, education, healthcare, and more.

Traditional On-Ground Degree Programs

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides traditional on-ground degree programs at its campus in Phoenix, Arizona, offering a range of undergraduate and graduate degrees.

Professional Development and Continuing Education

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. offers professional development and continuing education courses for individuals seeking to enhance their skills or meet licensure requirements.

Counseling Services

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides counseling services to support students' academic and personal success.

Tutoring and Academic Support

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. offers tutoring and academic support services to help students succeed in their coursework.

8. Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. operates in a niche market, providing education services to a specific segment of students. The threat of substitutes is low due to the unique nature of its services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. has a diverse student base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. However, the company still needs to maintain a high level of customer satisfaction to retain students and attract new ones.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. has a diversified supplier base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers. The company's scale of operations also gives it negotiating power with suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

While there are barriers to entry in the education services market, new entrants can still disrupt the market with innovative offerings. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. needs to stay competitive to maintain its market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The education services market is highly competitive, with several players vying for market share. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. needs to differentiate itself through its services and marketing efforts to stay ahead of the competition.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 12.15%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 87.85%
Equity Cost 6.92%
WACC 6.56%
Leverage 13.83%

11. Quality Control: Grand Canyon Education, Inc. passed 8 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Graham

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Laureate Education

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Strategic Education

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Adtalem Global Education

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Grand Canyon Education

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Stride

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

162.45$

Current Price

162.45$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows