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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services company in the United States.The company operates general and acute care hospitals that offers medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy.It also operates outpatient health care facilities consisting of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, physician practices, and various other facilities.


In addition, the company operates psychiatric hospitals, which provide therapeutic programs comprising child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol, drug abuse treatment, and counseling services.As of December 31, 2021, it operated 182 hospitals, including 175 general and acute care hospitals, five psychiatric hospitals, and two rehabilitation hospitals; 125 freestanding surgery centers; and 21 freestanding endoscopy centers in 20 states and England.The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc.


HCA Healthcare, Inc.was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

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1.b. Last Insights on HCA

HCA Healthcare's recent performance was driven by strong Q3 2025 earnings, with revenues increasing 9.6% to $19.161 billion and net income attributable to HCA Healthcare, Inc. rising 29.4% to $1.643 billion. The company's quarterly profit and revenue beat expectations, fueled by solid patient volumes and same-facility admissions growth. As a result, HCA lifted its full-year outlook. Analysts have increased their forecasts following the upbeat Q3 earnings. According to some analysts, despite robust technicals, shares are near fair value, prompting a downgrade from buy to hold.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. HCA Healthcare's Strong 2025 Performance Sets Stage for 2026 Growth

HCA Healthcare reported a robust fourth-quarter 2025 performance, with revenue increasing 6.7% year-over-year and net income attributable to the company rising 31%. Adjusted EBITDA grew 11% during the same period. For the full year 2025, revenue expanded 6.6%, driven by a 2.4% increase in equivalent admissions and a 4.1% rise in net revenue per equivalent admission. The company's adjusted EBITDA for 2025 increased 12.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $8.01, beating analyst estimates of $7.46.

Publication Date: Feb -02

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue and Profit Growth:: Q4 2025 revenue rose 6.7%, net income surged 31%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 11% YoY, with 2025 full-year revenue up 6.6% despite a $250M–$450M decline from supplemental payments.
  • Capital Investment and Shareholder Returns:: HCA spent $4.9B on 2025 capital projects and authorized a new $10B share repurchase program in 2026, alongside a $0.78/share dividend increase, reflecting strong balance sheet health ($7B in 2026–2028 capital projects).
  • 2026 Guidance and Resiliency:: Anticipates $76.5B–$80B revenue and $15.55B–$16.45B adjusted EBITDA for 2026, with $400M in annualized resiliency savings from cost-cutting programs and digital transformation.
  • Operational and Payer Mix Challenges:: Faces $250M–$450M headwinds from Texas Medicaid Atlas pause and health exchange shifts but expects 2–3% volume growth and 4–6% adjusted EBITDA growth over the long term.
  • Outpatient and Digital Momentum:: Outpatient revenue growth was robust despite surgery declines, driven by emergency services and digital integrations with payers, enhancing working capital and dispute resolution efficiency.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was marked by solid demand, with Medicare admissions up 3.5% and equivalent admissions up 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Medicaid volume grew 2.2%, reflecting a return to normal growth rates. Outpatient revenue growth was strong, driven by emergency services, ambulatory platforms, and other hospital-based outpatient services. However, outpatient surgery declined year-over-year due to Medicaid payer mix pressure and lower intensity cases.

Guidance and Outlook

For 2026, HCA expects revenues between $76.5 billion and $80 billion, with adjusted EBITDA ranging from $15.55 billion to $16.45 billion. The company anticipates 2-3% growth in equivalent admissions and same-facility net revenue per equivalent admission growth. HCA's guidance assumes a decline in supplemental payment programs and does not include potential impacts from additional approvals of grandfathered applications. The company's long-term growth plan remains intact, with expectations of 2-3% volume growth and 4-6% adjusted EBITDA growth.

Valuation and Return Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 16.61 and EV/EBITDA of 10.29, the market appears to have priced in a reasonable growth outlook for HCA. The company's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) stands at 18.53%, indicating efficient capital allocation. However, the ROE is negative due to a one-time item, not reflecting the company's true profitability. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 4.8% for the next year, which is slightly below HCA's long-term plan.

Investment and Shareholder Returns

HCA has authorized a new $10 billion share repurchase program and increased its quarterly dividend to $0.78 per share for 2026. The company plans to continue investing in its technology and digital innovation strategy, with a capital budget of $5 billion to $5.5 billion for 2026. The balance sheet is in a strong position, with $7 billion in approved capital projects for 2026-2028.

3. NewsRoom

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HCA Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:HCA) Given Average Recommendation of “Moderate Buy” by Analysts

Feb -09

Source: defenseworld.net

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Forget AI Stocks: This Hospital Chain Is the Real Winner of AI-Enhanced Healthcare

Feb -01

Source: fool.com

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HCA Healthcare Hospitals Named on America's 50 Best Hospitals List for 2026 by Healthgrades

Jan -29

Source: businesswire.com

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Hospital Operator HCA Healthcare Is Set For Solid Growth, Higher Value-Analyst

Jan -28

Source: benzinga.com

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HCA Healthcare Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Jan -28

Source: defenseworld.net

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Compass Wealth Management LLC Decreases Stock Holdings in HCA Healthcare, Inc. $HCA

Jan -28

Source: defenseworld.net

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HCA Healthcare (NYSE:HCA) Shares Gap Up After Earnings Beat

Jan -28

Source: defenseworld.net

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HCA Healthcare (NYSE:HCA) Reaches New 12-Month High on Better-Than-Expected Earnings

Jan -28

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.00%)

6. Segments

Operating Hospitals and Related Health Care Entities

Expected Growth: 5.0%

The operating hospitals and related healthcare entities of HCA Healthcare, Inc. are driven by growing demand for healthcare services, increasing population, and aging demographics. Additionally, the company's expansion into outpatient services, investments in technology, and strategic acquisitions contribute to its 5.0% growth. Improving operational efficiency and effective management of healthcare costs also support this growth rate.

7. Detailed Products

Hospital Services

HCA Healthcare, Inc. operates a network of hospitals that provide a range of medical services, including emergency care, surgical services, and rehabilitation programs.

Outpatient Services

The company offers outpatient services, including urgent care centers, freestanding emergency departments, and physician practices.

Physician Services

HCA Healthcare, Inc. provides physician services, including primary care, specialty care, and surgical services.

Surgery Centers

The company operates ambulatory surgery centers, providing outpatient surgical services.

Urgent Care Centers

HCA Healthcare, Inc. operates urgent care centers, providing immediate, non-emergency care for acute illnesses and injuries.

Home Health and Hospice Services

The company provides home health and hospice services, offering medical care and support in the comfort of patients' homes.

8. HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

HCA Healthcare, Inc. operates in a highly regulated industry, and the threat of substitutes is low due to the complexity and high barriers to entry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Patients have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternative healthcare providers, but HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s large network and reputation mitigate this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

HCA Healthcare, Inc. has a diversified supplier base, and the bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the company's large scale and negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles, high capital requirements, and the need for specialized expertise.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The healthcare industry is highly competitive, and HCA Healthcare, Inc. faces intense rivalry from other healthcare providers, including non-profit and for-profit organizations.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 104.71%
Debt Cost 5.86%
Equity Weight -4.71%
Equity Cost 12.32%
WACC 5.55%
Leverage -2221.82%

11. Quality Control: HCA Healthcare, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
J&J

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
AbbVie

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
HCA Healthcare

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
McKesson

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
NHC

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

502.05$

Current Price

502.05$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows