Laird Superfood, Inc. (LSF) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Laird Superfood, Inc.manufactures and markets plant-based natural and functional food in the United States.It offers powdered and liquid coffee creamers, and hydration and beverage enhancing supplements; hydrate coconut water products, activate daily jumpstart products, activate prebiotic daily greens, renew plant-based proteins, and performance mushroom supplements; coffee, tea, hot chocolate products; and Pili nuts and Harvest dates.

The company provides its products through wholesale channels, its own website, as well as third-party online channels.Laird Superfood, Inc.was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Sisters, Oregon.

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1.b. Last Insights on LSF

Laird Superfood's recent performance was negatively impacted by a Q4 loss of $0.04 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.02. This compares to break-even earnings per share a year ago. The company's inability to meet revenue estimates and its widening loss per share are concerning indicators of its financial health.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	2.25
Change Percentage	-0.88%
Open	2.33
Previous Close	2.27
Market Cap ( Millions)	24
Volume	156452
Year High	9.72
Year Low	2.18
M A 50	4.27
M A 200	5.74

FCF Yield	-14.48%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	-8.18%
Debt / Equity	1.51%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	375.64%
Price To Book	1.77
Price Earnings Ratio	-21.85
Price To FCF	-6.91
Price To sales	0.82
EV / EBITDA	-18.92

2. Laird Superfood's Q3 2025 Earnings: Navigating Headwinds with Innovation

Laird Superfood reported a 10% year-over-year increase in net sales to $12.9 million for Q3 2025, driven by a 39% growth in the wholesale channel. However, e-commerce sales declined 11% due to softness in direct-to-consumer sales. Gross profit was $4.7 million, down 7% from the prior year, with gross margin contracting to 36.5% due to commodity cost inflation and channel mix shifts. The actual EPS came out at '-0.03', beating estimates of '-0.04'.

Publication Date: Nov -21

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Net Sales Growth::
                                                Q3 net sales rose 10% YoY to $12.9M, driven by 39% wholesale growth, offset by 11% e-commerce decline.
Gross Profit Decline::
                                                Gross profit fell 7% to $4.7M, with margin shrinking to 36.5% due to commodity inflation and channel mix shifts.
Product Strategy::
                                                Discontinuing Picky Bars by Q2 2026 to focus on core brand; launching protein coffee and liquid creamers with improved formulations.
Financial Position::
                                                $5.3M cash balance, no debt; updated 2025 sales growth to ~15% and aims for gross margin in upper 30s.

                                

Operational Highlights

The company is focused on executing its strategy to build a scalable, profitable business, with a strong innovation pipeline and continued expansion in the wholesale channel. Laird Superfood is launching new products, including a protein coffee and liquid creamers with improved formulations and packaging. As Jason Vieth, President and Chief Executive Officer, explained, the timing of large wholesale customer orders impacted Q3 results and may also impact Q4, but the company believes this is a short-term issue.

Financial Position and Guidance

Anya Hamill, Chief Financial Officer, reported that the company ended the quarter with $5.3 million in cash and no debt. Laird Superfood is updating its full-year 2025 net sales growth expectation to approximately 15% and expects gross margin to hold in the upper 30s range. The company expects to continually build its cash position in the fourth quarter and into early 2026 as inventory converts to cash.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/S Ratio of 0.91, the market is pricing in moderate growth expectations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 15.0%, indicating a potential upside. However, the company's ROE (%) is -8.18, and ROIC (%) is -27.75, indicating that it still has to achieve profitability. The EV/EBITDA ratio is -21.24, suggesting that the market is expecting significant improvement in EBITDA.

Product Innovation and Marketing Strategy

The company is launching a new protein coffee product, made with high-quality freeze-dried coffee and a unique blend of dairy proteins. The product will be launched online and in retail, with a 360-degree campaign, including social influencer groups, retail activations, and organic marketing. Additional dairy products are expected to be launched over the next 15 months, with a focus on clean protein and ingredients.

Macroeconomic Factors and Risk Management

Laird Superfood is navigating macroeconomic factors such as commodity inflation and potential trade policies. The company has gained volume and distribution points by partnering with retailers and has acquired coffee to hold the line on price. Despite headwinds in the consumer economy, the company is excited to still be growing in double digits and believes it can continue to do so next year and in the future.

3. NewsRoom

Laird Superfood, Inc. (LSF) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -11

Source: zacks.com

Laird Superfood, Inc. (LSF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -11

Source: seekingalpha.com

Laird Superfood Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -10

Source: businesswire.com

Laird Superfood to Report Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results on November 10, 2025

Oct -28

Source: businesswire.com

Laird Superfood® Brews New Fall Flavor: Maple Instant Latte with Functional Mushrooms

Oct -10

Source: prnewswire.com

Laird Superfood Expands Distribution with New Costco Availability Across Key U.S. Regions

Aug -13

Source: prnewswire.com

Laird Superfood, Inc. (LSF) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aug -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

Laird Superfood (LSF) Q2 Sales Jump 20%

Aug -07

Source: fool.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.31%)

6. Segments

Coffee Creamers

Expected Growth: 12.1%

Growing demand for plant-based and vegan-friendly products, increasing awareness of functional mushrooms' health benefits, and rising popularity of specialty coffee drive the growth of Laird Superfood's Coffee Creamers.

Coffee, Tea, and Hot Chocolate

Expected Growth: 10.3%

Growing demand for healthy and functional beverages, increasing popularity of specialty coffee, and rising consumer preference for high-quality ingredients drive the growth of Laird Superfood's products.

Returns and Discounts

Expected Growth: 10.5%

Laird Superfood's 30-day return policy and 100% satisfaction guarantee drive customer loyalty and retention, fostering trust and encouraging repeat business, ultimately contributing to the company's growth.

Harvest Snacks and Other Food Iems

Expected Growth: 10.2%

Growing demand for organic and functional food products, increasing popularity of plant-based diets, and rising consumer awareness of health and wellness drive the growth of Laird Superfood's harvest snacks and other food items.

Hydration and Beverage Enhancing Supplements

Expected Growth: 12.4%

Growing demand for natural and functional beverages, increasing popularity of adaptogenic herbs and functional mushrooms, and rising health consciousness among consumers are expected to drive the growth of Laird Superfood's Hydration and Beverage Enhancing Supplements.

Shipping

Expected Growth: 12.4%

Growing demand for healthy and sustainable food, increasing online shopping, and Laird Superfood's expanding product line drive the shipping segment's growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 10.5%

Laird Superfood's non-core business operations, including investments and miscellaneous activities, are expected to grow steadily driven by increasing demand for sustainable investments and diversification of revenue streams.

7. Detailed Products

Functional Mushroom Blends

A range of blends that combine functional mushrooms with other natural ingredients to support immune function, cognitive function, and overall well-being.

Coconut MCT Oil

A premium, high-quality MCT oil extracted from coconut oil, supporting energy production and cognitive function.

Turmeric Latte Mix

A convenient, powdered mix of turmeric, ginger, and coconut milk, supporting joint health and inflammation reduction.

Probiotic Powder

A high-potency, multi-strain probiotic powder supporting gut health, immune function, and digestion.

Vegan Protein Powder

A plant-based protein powder made from pea protein, supporting muscle recovery and overall health.

Superfood Creamers

A range of dairy-free creamers made with coconut milk and functional ingredients, supporting energy and cognitive function.

8. Laird Superfood, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Laird Superfood, Inc. has a low threat of substitutes due to its unique product offerings and strong brand recognition.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Laird Superfood, Inc. has a medium bargaining power of customers due to the presence of some large retailers and online marketplaces, but the company's strong brand and product offerings mitigate this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Laird Superfood, Inc. has a low bargaining power of suppliers due to its diversified supplier base and ability to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

Laird Superfood, Inc. has a medium threat of new entrants due to the growing demand for healthy and sustainable food options, but the company's established brand and distribution network provide a barrier to entry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Laird Superfood, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	2.77%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	97.23%
Equity Cost	13.80%
WACC	13.53%
Leverage	2.85%

11. Quality Control: Laird Superfood, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Bridgford Foods

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

B&G Foods

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Mama's Creations

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 0.6

Growth: 8.8

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Laird Superfood

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

USANA Health Sciences

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

NAI

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 9.5

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

44.31%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

13.53%

Laird Superfood, Inc. - US50736T1025

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on LSF

1.c. Company Highlights

More Volatile

Strong Momentum

Cheaper

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Fairly Valued

Revenues Miss

Average Yield

Earnings Miss

Average Quality

Stable Momentum

Average Growth

Lower Yield

2. Laird Superfood's Q3 2025 Earnings: Navigating Headwinds with Innovation

Operational Highlights

Financial Position and Guidance

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Product Innovation and Marketing Strategy

Macroeconomic Factors and Risk Management

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.31%)

6. Segments

Coffee Creamers

Expected Growth: 12.1%

Coffee, Tea, and Hot Chocolate

Expected Growth: 10.3%

Returns and Discounts

Expected Growth: 10.5%

Harvest Snacks and Other Food Iems

Expected Growth: 10.2%

Hydration and Beverage Enhancing Supplements

Expected Growth: 12.4%

Shipping

Expected Growth: 12.4%

Other

Expected Growth: 10.5%

7. Detailed Products

Functional Mushroom Blends

Coconut MCT Oil

Turmeric Latte Mix

Probiotic Powder

Vegan Protein Powder

Superfood Creamers

8. Laird Superfood, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Laird Superfood, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA