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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

LiveWire Group, Inc.engages in the manufacturing of electric motorcycles in North America, Europe/Middle East/Africa, and Asia Pacific regions.It offers its products under the LiveWire brand name.


The company has strategic partnerships with Harley-Davidson, Inc.and the KYMCO Group.LiveWire Group, Inc.


was founded in 2010 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

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1.b. Last Insights on LVWR

Recent negative drivers behind LiveWire Group, Inc.'s performance include escalating cash burn concerns, as the company reported a significant cash burn in 2024 and only expects to reduce it by 40% or more in 2025. Additionally, the company's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results may have fallen short of expectations, as the company had to navigate market dynamics and reposition its business. Furthermore, the launch of the all-new S2 Alpinista electric sport standard, while a positive development, may not be enough to offset the company's current challenges.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Harley-Davidavidson Q2 Earnings Analysis

Revenue fell 19%1 driven by lower wholesale shipments and softsoft demand, global retail sales down down15% YoY, HDMC Q2 revenue fell23%, driven by28% lower wholesale shipments, gross margin declined350 bps to28.6%, operating income $112M, EPS operating income fell69% to $112M (8.6% margin), EPS $0.88. the P/E Ratio is -8.62>62, the P/B Ratio is9.04.

Publication Date: Sep -05

📋 Highlights
  • HDFS Transaction Value: Sold to KKR/PIMCO at 1.75x book value, generating $1.25B for HDMC to reduce debt and fund growth.
  • Q2 Revenue Decline: Revenue fell 19% YoY, driven by 15% lower retail sales and 28% dealer inventory reduction globally.
  • Product Launches: CVO Road Glide RR priced at $110k and a $6k entry-level model (2026) to expand market share.
  • LiveWire Turnaround: Operating loss narrowed to $19M (down 34% YoY), with 36% lower cash burn and mini-EVs in development.
  • Financial Leverage: $1.25B HDFS proceeds allocated to $450M debt reduction, $500M buybacks, and $300M growth investments.

HDFS Transaction Details

The HDFS transaction transaction1.75x book value value, $1.B distributiondistribution to HD, sale of4.9%49% stake each to KKR and PIM and $1.25BB pretax gain expected to close in H2, HDFS operating income to be $525–$550M in 2025, normalized earnings of $240–$250M annually.</p earnings $240–$250250M annually. Tariff costs for650M annually, productivity savings of $48 $48M in H1, $257M cumulative 3-year savings, $100M+ expected in 2026, livewire’s Q2 operating loss narrowed to $19M, full-year guidance at $59–$69M.

Financial Performance and Outlook

Livewire reduced cash burn by36% YoY, new mini-EV models planned, the company is advancing efficiency programs, AI-driven cost savings, in the U.S. tax incentives for motorcycle loans seen as positive catalysts, new product development: a small displacement motorcycle motorcycle under $66k, launched in2026, racing initiatives: a new MotoGP series startingseries starting in 2026, the CVO Road Road Glide RR, priced at $110,000.

3. NewsRoom

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LiveWire Group, Inc. Reports 2025 Third Quarter Financial Results

Nov -04

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LiveWire Group, Inc. to Showcase New Products and Development Updates at EICMA International Motorshow

Oct -28

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Critical Survey: Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) & LiveWire Group (NYSE:LVWR)

Oct -22

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LiveWire Group, Inc. To Report Third Quarter 2025 Results on November 4, 2025

Oct -15

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LiveWire® Announces the Twist & Go Promotion and New Features Update for S2 Electric Motorcycles

Aug -28

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LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Jul -31

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LiveWire Group, Inc. Reports 2025 Second Quarter Financial Results

Jul -30

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LiveWire Group, Inc. To Report Second Quarter 2025 Results on July 30, 2025

Jul -10

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.75%)

6. Segments

STACYC

Expected Growth: 9.27%

STACYC's 9.27% growth is driven by increasing demand for electric balance bikes, strategic partnerships with Harley-Davidson, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's focus on innovative products, strong brand recognition, and growing e-commerce presence contribute to its rapid growth.

Electric Motorcycles

Expected Growth: 13.95%

LiveWire Group, Inc.'s 13.95% growth in electric motorcycles is driven by increasing environmental concerns, government incentives for eco-friendly vehicles, and rising demand for sustainable transportation. Additionally, advancements in battery technology, decreasing production costs, and expanding charging infrastructure are contributing to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Harley-Davidson Electric Motorcycles

LiveWire Group, Inc. offers a range of electric motorcycles under the Harley-Davidson brand, providing a sustainable and environmentally friendly alternative to traditional gas-powered motorcycles.

LiveWire Electric Motorcycles

LiveWire Group, Inc. offers a range of electric motorcycles under the LiveWire brand, providing a high-performance and sustainable riding experience.

Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging Solutions

LiveWire Group, Inc. offers a range of EV charging solutions, including home charging stations and public charging networks, to support the growing demand for electric vehicles.

Electric Motorcycle Accessories

LiveWire Group, Inc. offers a range of accessories for electric motorcycles, including helmets, jackets, and gloves, designed to enhance the riding experience.

Electric Vehicle (EV) Technology Licensing

LiveWire Group, Inc. licenses its electric vehicle technology to other companies, enabling them to develop their own electric vehicles.

8. LiveWire Group, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

LiveWire Group, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes due to the presence of alternative electric vehicle charging solutions.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

LiveWire Group, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

LiveWire Group, Inc. relies on a few key suppliers for critical components, which gives them some bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The electric vehicle charging market is attractive, and new entrants may be drawn to the market, posing a threat to LiveWire Group, Inc.'s market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The electric vehicle charging market is highly competitive, with several established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 0.94%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 99.06%
Equity Cost 8.78%
WACC 8.74%
Leverage 0.94%

11. Quality Control: LiveWire Group, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Cooper-Standard

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Phoenix Motor

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Sonder

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Envirotech Vehicles

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
LiveWire

A-Score: 2.5/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Hyzon Motors

A-Score: 2.4/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

4.19$

Current Price

4.19$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows