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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Lucid Diagnostics Inc.operates as a commercial-stage medical diagnostics technology company.The company focuses on patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease, which is also known as chronic heartburn, acid reflux, or simply reflux, who are at risk of developing esophageal precancer and cancer, specifically highly lethal esophageal adenocarcinoma.


Its lead products include EsoGuard, a laboratory developed esophageal DNA test; and EsoCheck, an esophageal cell collection device.The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in New York, New York.Lucid Diagnostics Inc.


is a subsidiary of PAVmed Inc.

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1.b. Last Insights on LUCD

Lucid Diagnostics' recent performance was driven by several positive factors. The company processed a record 4,042 EsoGuard tests in 4Q24, a 45% sequential and 84% annual increase, resulting in recognized EsoGuard revenue of $1.2 million in 4Q24. Additionally, Lucid secured its first agreement to pay for EsoGuard under state biomarker legislation, indicating growing acceptance of its technology. The company also established a new sales channel, generating over 20 new cash-pay concierge medicine contracts. Furthermore, Lucid regained compliance with the Nasdaq minimum bid price requirement, demonstrating its ability to navigate regulatory challenges.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Lucid Diagnostics' Q3 2025 Earnings: Steady Test Volume and Revenue

Lucid Diagnostics reported a stable financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with 2,841 tests conducted, generating revenue of $1.2 million, consistent with the previous quarter. The company's non-GAAP loss was $10.3 million, or $0.10 per share, which is relatively flat sequentially. The actual EPS was -0.1, missing estimates of -0.06. The revenue recognition was about 17% of the pro forma revenue of $7.1 million, due to the transitional stage in the reimbursement process.

Publication Date: Nov -17

📋 Highlights
  • Test Volume & Revenue:: 2,841 tests generated $1.2M revenue, aligning with Q2 levels and the 2,500–3,000 test target range.
  • Medicare Coverage Progress:: Unanimous endorsement from Medicare advisory committee; ~40% of addressable patients impacted pending final approval expected by year-end 2025.
  • Fundraising & Cash Balance:: Raised $27M via public offering, boosting pro forma cash to $47M, with quarterly burn rate at $10.3M (slightly improved from prior quarters).
  • Commercial Expansion:: Billed 400+ tests with commercial payers, secured Highmark New York policy, and initiated NIH study to expand target population from 30M to 50M.
  • Cost Efficiency & Scalability:: COGS per test rose 5% to $600 (fixed costs), but automation/ai opportunities exist; 90%+ patient conversion rate and "sticky" physician adoption observed.

Operational Highlights

The company strengthened its market access leadership team to drive payer engagement and secure broader commercial insurance coverage. A recent Medicare Contract Advisory Committee meeting yielded positive results, with a unanimous endorsement of EsoGuard Medicare coverage. The company is confident that it is close to securing Medicare coverage, which is expected to have a significant impact on future revenue recognition. The company is also engaging with commercial payers, with a goal of securing contracts and coverage policies.

Medicare Coverage and Commercial Progress

The company is aggressively pursuing Medicare patients, expecting to get paid, and is not concerned about a potential delay in reimbursement. The probability of collection is a key determinant in revenue recognition, and the company is working to secure coverage. A recent meeting with the California Clinical Laboratory Association (CCLA) was positive, with leaders of MolDx contractors engaging in an open conversation. The company feels confident that a draft LCD will be issued by year-end 2025.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 145.3%. The current valuation metrics indicate a P/S Ratio of 24.97 and an EV/EBITDA of -1.94. The company's ROE is -1555.06%, and the Net Debt / EBITDA is 0.07. Given the expected revenue growth, the current valuation may be justified if the company secures Medicare coverage and expands its commercial presence.

Cost Structure and Future Plans

The cost of goods per test increased 5% quarter over quarter to $600, mainly due to fixed costs. The company is working to reduce costs, particularly in laboratory testing, through automation and AI. The company remains confident about securing Medicare coverage in the near term, which will lay the groundwork for a growth phase. They have fiscal discipline to manage their burn rate and are working to secure coverage.

3. NewsRoom

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Lucid Diagnostics Named a GenomeWeb 2025 Best Places to Work Top-Ranking Honoree

Nov -20

Source: prnewswire.com

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Lucid Diagnostics Inc. (NASDAQ:LUCD) Given Average Recommendation of “Moderate Buy” by Brokerages

Nov -19

Source: defenseworld.net

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Lucid Diagnostics to Participate in the Canaccord Genuity MedTech, Diagnostics and Digital Health & Services Forum

Nov -13

Source: prnewswire.com

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PAVmed Provides Business Update and Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -13

Source: prnewswire.com

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Lucid Diagnostics Inc. (LUCD) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -12

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Lucid Diagnostics Inc. (LUCD) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -12

Source: zacks.com

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Lucid Diagnostics Provides Business Update and Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -12

Source: prnewswire.com

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PAVmed to Hold a Business Update Conference Call and Webcast on November 13, 2025

Oct -30

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.02%)

6. Segments

Medical Diagnostics Technology

Expected Growth: 10.02%

Lucid Diagnostics Inc.'s Medical Diagnostics Technology growth is driven by increasing demand for non-invasive diagnostic tests, advancements in AI-powered diagnostics, and rising healthcare expenditure. The growing need for early disease detection, prevention, and personalized medicine also contributes to this growth. Additionally, the company's innovative technology and strategic partnerships have enabled it to capitalize on these trends, resulting in a 10.02% growth rate.

7. Detailed Products

EsoGuard Esophageal DNA Test

A non-invasive, swallowable capsule that collects cells from the esophagus to detect Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer

EsoCheck Esophageal Cell Collection Device

A non-invasive, office-based device that collects cells from the esophagus for diagnostic testing

LucidDx Esophageal Diagnostic Platform

A comprehensive platform that combines EsoGuard and EsoCheck with advanced analytics and machine learning to aid in the diagnosis and management of esophageal disease

8. Lucid Diagnostics Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Lucid Diagnostics Inc. has a low threat of substitutes due to its unique and patented technology in the field of cancer diagnostics.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Lucid Diagnostics Inc. has a medium bargaining power of customers due to the presence of a few large hospital chains and research institutions that can negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Lucid Diagnostics Inc. has a low bargaining power of suppliers due to the availability of multiple suppliers for the necessary raw materials and equipment.

Threat Of New Entrants

Lucid Diagnostics Inc. has a high threat of new entrants due to the growing demand for cancer diagnostics and the potential for new companies to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Lucid Diagnostics Inc. has a medium intensity of rivalry due to the presence of a few established players in the market, but with opportunities for differentiation and growth.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 117.85%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight -17.85%
Equity Cost 11.38%
WACC 2.62%
Leverage -660.10%

11. Quality Control: Lucid Diagnostics Inc. passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Spectral AI

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.7

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PetVivo Holdings

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.7

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Lucid Diagnostics

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 2.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 2.0

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Asensus Surgical

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 0.7

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PAVmed

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.0

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Strata Skin Sciences

A-Score: 2.5/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 0.3

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.03$

Current Price

1.03$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows