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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States.It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream.The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale.


Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt.This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur.It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand.


The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids.As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs.Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

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1.b. Last Insights on MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation's recent performance was driven by strong Refining & Marketing execution and continued Midstream growth, yielding $3.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA. A $926 million capital return, including $650 million in share repurchases, enhanced shareholder value. The company announced a 10% quarterly dividend increase, adding to its shareholder returns. Robust cash generation, with $2.4 billion in the third quarter, and $6 billion year-to-date in operating cash flow, also contributed positively. According to some analysts, Marathon Petroleum remains a 'Strong Buy' due to its strong balance sheet and aggressive share buybacks.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Marathon Petroleum's Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Cash Generation and Return to Shareholders

Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (MPC) third-quarter 2025 earnings call highlighted a mixed financial performance, with earnings per share (EPS) of $3.01, slightly below the estimated $3.15. The company's revenue and margin came in line with expectations, driven by its strong operational performance. The refineries ran at 95% utilization, processing 2.8 million barrels of crude per day, with several refineries achieving monthly throughput records. The company's renewable diesel facilities operated at 86% utilization, although margins were weaker due to higher feedstock costs.

Publication Date: Nov -05

📋 Highlights
  • Cash Generation: MPC generated $2.4 billion in Q3 2025 with 95% utilization and 96% capture despite market headwinds.
  • Shareholder Returns: Returned $3.2 billion to shareholders YTD, including a 10% dividend increase, with $1 billion in balance sheet flexibility for buybacks.
  • Midstream Growth: MPLX distribution growth of 12.5% projected, contributing $2.8 billion annually to MPC’s cash flow.
  • Refinery Performance: 2.8 million barrels/day throughput, with 95% utilization and record monthly outputs at key refineries.
  • Capital Efficiency: 2026 capital spending expected below 2025 levels, with $420 million in Q4 turnaround costs focused on the West Coast.

Financial Performance

The company's cash generation was strong at $2.4 billion, with a return of $3.2 billion to shareholders year-to-date, including a 10% dividend increase. The company's midstream segment, MPLX, increased its distribution, and MPC expects to receive $2.8 billion annually from MPLX, with a growth rate of 12.5% over the next couple of years. As Maryann Mannen stated, "we remain committed to using share buybacks as a form of return of capital," highlighting the company's focus on returning value to shareholders.

Operational Highlights

MPC's refineries achieved high utilization rates, with the West Coast being a key driver of the company's performance. The company's investment in its Los Angeles refinery and optimization of its West Coast and Pacific Northwest assets are expected to provide a competitive advantage. The company is also seeing favorable dynamics in crude markets, including wider differentials for WCS, ASCI, ANS, Bakken, and Syncrude, which will benefit its refineries.

Valuation and Outlook

Based on the current valuation metrics, MPC's P/E Ratio is 36.82, and its EV/EBITDA is 8.57, indicating a relatively high valuation. However, the company's commitment to returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends remains a key part of its strategy. With a dividend yield of 1.98% and a free cash flow yield of 7.65%, the company is well-positioned to maintain its dividend growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 0.0%, indicating a stable outlook for the company.

Growth Prospects

The company is investing in midstream projects, particularly in the Permian, to build out its nat gas and NGL value chain. These projects are expected to contribute to incremental EBITDA in 2026 and beyond, supporting the company's growth plans. With strong demand for NGLs and nat gas, MPC is well-positioned to benefit from its investments.

3. NewsRoom

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MPC Paris Oversees VFX and Picture Post-Production for Netflix's Néro the Assassin

Dec -01

Source: globenewswire.com

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Choreo LLC Decreases Stake in Marathon Petroleum Corporation $MPC

Nov -28

Source: defenseworld.net

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Market Today: Nvidia (NVDA) crushes Q3; WBD bid heats up

Nov -19

Source: gurufocus.com

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First Look: Nvidia Earnings Loom, Retail and AI Moves Drive Headlines

Nov -19

Source: gurufocus.com

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Marathon Petroleum Sees Unusually High Options Volume (NYSE:MPC)

Nov -19

Source: defenseworld.net

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Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Q3 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates

Nov -17

Source: zacks.com

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4 Refining & Marketing Stocks Gaining From Industry Tailwinds

Nov -17

Source: zacks.com

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CrowdStrike Leads Five Stocks To Watch Near Buy Points

Nov -15

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.71%)

6. Segments

Refining & Marketing

Expected Growth: 4.5%

The Refining & Marketing segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% driven by increasing demand for petroleum products, particularly in emerging markets. Strong refining margins and efficient operations will likely contribute to growth, offset by fluctuating crude oil prices and regulatory pressures.

Renewable Diesel

Expected Growth: 12.5%

Increasing demand for low-carbon fuels, government incentives for renewable energy, and Marathon Petroleum Corporation's strategic investments in renewable diesel production capacity, driving growth in the renewable diesel market with a forecast CAGR of 12.5%.

Midstream

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Marathon Petroleum's midstream segment benefits from increasing demand for refined products and crude oil transportation. Its strategic location and extensive network optimize logistics and supply chain efficiency. Growing production in the Permian Basin and increasing exports drive growth, with a forecast CAGR of 5.5% driven by steady demand and infrastructure investments.

Intersegment Revenues

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Marathon Petroleum Corporation's intersegment revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.2%, driven by increased demand for refined products, efficient supply chain management, and strategic segment integration. This growth is underpinned by the company's refining and marketing capabilities, which facilitate intersegment sales.

7. Detailed Products

Refined Petroleum Products

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a leading refiner, transporter, and marketer of petroleum products, producing a wide range of refined products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and asphalt.

Pipeline Transportation

Marathon Petroleum Corporation operates an extensive network of pipelines that transport crude oil, refined petroleum products, and natural gas liquids.

Retail and Wholesale Marketing

Marathon Petroleum Corporation sells refined petroleum products through its retail and wholesale marketing segment, which includes a network of convenience stores, truck stops, and wholesale customers.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Marathon Petroleum Corporation also produces and markets natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are used as feedstocks for the production of other chemicals and fuels.

Refining

Marathon Petroleum Corporation operates a number of refineries that convert crude oil into a range of refined petroleum products.

8. Marathon Petroleum Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Marathon Petroleum Corporation operates in the oil and gas refining and marketing industry, where substitutes such as renewable energy sources and alternative fuels are emerging. However, the demand for petroleum products remains high, and the company has a strong market presence, which mitigates the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Marathon Petroleum Corporation has a large customer base, and individual customers have limited bargaining power. The company also has a strong brand presence and a wide distribution network, which reduces the bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Marathon Petroleum Corporation relies on suppliers for crude oil and other materials. While the company has a large supplier base, fluctuations in crude oil prices and availability can impact its operations. However, the company has strategies in place to manage supplier relationships and mitigate risks.

Threat Of New Entrants

The oil and gas refining and marketing industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and established brand loyalty. This reduces the threat of new entrants and provides a competitive advantage to existing players like Marathon Petroleum Corporation.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The oil and gas refining and marketing industry is highly competitive, with several major players, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips. Marathon Petroleum Corporation competes with these players on price, product offerings, and marketing strategies, which results in high rivalry intensity.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 61.84%
Debt Cost 5.34%
Equity Weight 38.16%
Equity Cost 8.49%
WACC 6.54%
Leverage 162.06%

11. Quality Control: Marathon Petroleum Corporation passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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MPLX

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Value: 5.9

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 8.3

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Diamondback Energy

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 6.7

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Marathon Petroleum

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 7.7

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Valero Energy

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.7

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Phillips 66

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

190.53$

Current Price

190.53$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows