Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide.The company operates through North America, International, and American Girl segments.It offers dolls and accessories, as well as content, gaming, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, Monster High, American Girl, Polly Pocket, Spirit, and Enchantimals brands; dolls and books under the American Girl brand name; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids of all ages, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Monster Trucks, Matchbox, CARS, and Mario Kart brand names; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising content, toys, live events, and other lifestyle products under the Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, Power wheels, and Fireman Sam brands.


The company also provides action figures, building sets, and games under the Masters of the Universe, MEGA, UNO, Lightyear, Jurassic World, WWE, and Star Wars brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney, NBCUniversal, WWE, Microsoft, Nickelodeon, Warner Bros, and Sanrio.It sells its products directly to consumers through its catalog, website, and proprietary retail stores; retailers, including discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; and wholesalers, as well as through agents and distributors.Mattel, Inc.


was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on MAT

Breaking News: Mattel Inc reported lower than anticipated fourth quarter earnings and revenue. The company posted net sales of $1.77 billion in Q4, up 7% as reported and 5% in constant currency. Softer December growth and discounting weighed on results. The company outlined a year of strategic investments that are likely to pressure near term earnings. Some analysts recommend a hold, while others have yet to revise their ratings. The earnings miss and disappointing forecast have led to a significant decline in the stock. Mattel's Q4 earnings and revenues missed estimates.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Mattel's 2025 Earnings: A Mixed Bag with Growth Prospects

Mattel reported a mixed financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, with gross billings growing 6% in the quarter, driven by strong performances in vehicles, action figures, and Hot Wheels. However, the growth in the US was less than anticipated, impacting full-year results. For the full year, total company gross billings were comparable, with net sales of $5.35 billion, down 1% as reported and in constant currency. Adjusted EPS decreased from $1.62 to $1.41, with actual EPS coming in at $0.39, below estimates of $0.53.

Publication Date: Feb -16

📋 Highlights
  • Gross Billings Growth:: Q4 2025 saw 6% global growth, with vehicles up 16% and Hot Wheels achieving double-digit growth, while dolls and infant-toddler preschool declined 10%.
  • Adjusted Gross Margin Decline:: Q4 margin dropped 480 bps to 46%, but full-year 2025 margin remained at 48.9%, with guidance for 50% recovery in 2026.
  • Share Repurchases:: $600M repurchased in 2025, totaling $1.2B over three years, reducing shares by 18%, ending with $1.24B cash and $2.33B long-term debt.
  • 2026 Guidance:: 3–6% constant currency sales growth, adjusted EPS of $1.18–$1.30, and $150M strategic investments for 2027 growth and 50% margin recovery.
  • Strategic Acquisitions:: Full ownership of Mattel 163, a mobile games studio, expected to add $150M in 2026 sales and accelerate digital growth with new game launches in 2026.

Segment Performance

The company's segment performance was varied, with vehicles growing 10% for the full year, driven by Hot Wheels' exceptional performance, and challenger categories collectively growing 13%, driven by high growth in action figures. Dolls, however, declined 7% primarily due to Barbie and Polly Pocket. The company gained market share in key categories, including vehicles, dolls, action figures, and traditional games.

Guidance and Outlook

For 2026, Mattel expects growth to be driven by innovation in toys, major partnerships with leading IP owners, and an acceleration of its entertainment offering. The company expects net sales growth in the range of 3% to 6% in constant currency, with adjusted EPS expected to be in the range of $1.18 to $1.30. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.9%, indicating a relatively stable outlook.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 12.67 and an EV/EBITDA of 9.0, Mattel's valuation appears reasonable. The company's ROE of 17.39% and ROIC of 8.48% indicate a decent return on equity and invested capital. The acquisition of Mattel 163 is expected to be accretive both strategically and financially, driving accelerated growth in profitability. With a strong cash position and cash flow generation, Mattel is well-positioned to execute its growth plans and create long-term shareholder value.

Investment Strategy

Mattel's plans to invest $150 million to drive growth, with expected high returns, and its $1.5 billion share repurchase program over the next three years demonstrate confidence in its plan and ability to create long-term shareholder value. The company's focus on digital games and entertainment is expected to drive sustained engagement and growth, positioning Mattel for a strong future.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Mason Hawkins' Strategic Moves: IAC Inc Sees a 44.15% Increase

Feb -13

Source: gurufocus.com

Card image cap

Mattel: The Post-Earnings Sell Off Is Your Chance To Get In

Feb -13

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Mattel Stock Runs Out Of Playtime

Feb -13

Source: benzinga.com

Card image cap

New Strong Sell Stocks for February 13th

Feb -13

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

Mattel Fires on All Cylinders for 2026, Showcases Bold New Hot Wheels® Lineup at New York Toy Fair

Feb -12

Source: businesswire.com

Card image cap

Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Shares Gap Down on Disappointing Earnings

Feb -12

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Mattel Q4: More Pain Ahead, But It Is Getting Interesting

Feb -12

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Why Mattel Stock Crashed Today

Feb -11

Source: fool.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.00%)

6. Segments

North America

Expected Growth: 2.0%

In North America, Mattel's 2.0% growth is driven by a strong demand for dolls, particularly Barbie, and a resurgence in popularity of American Girl. Additionally, the company's focus on e-commerce and online sales has contributed to the growth, as well as the success of its licensed products, such as toys based on popular franchises like Star Wars and Disney.

International

Expected Growth: 2.0%

Mattel's international segment growth of 2.0% is driven by increasing demand for toys and games in emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Latin America. Strong brand recognition, strategic partnerships, and e-commerce expansion also contribute to growth. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, digital engagement, and localized product offerings help to drive sales in international markets.

American Girl

Expected Growth: 2.0%

American Girl's 2.0% growth is driven by increasing popularity of experiential retail, expansion of online presence, and strategic partnerships. Strong brand recognition, high-quality products, and loyalty programs also contribute to growth. Additionally, Mattel's focus on digital transformation and e-commerce optimization enhance the segment's performance.

7. Detailed Products

Barbie Dolls

Fashion dolls that allow children to engage in imaginative play and explore different roles and careers

Hot Wheels

Die-cast cars and tracks that allow children to engage in racing and stunts

Fisher-Price Toys

Preschool toys that promote learning and development in young children

American Girl Dolls

High-quality dolls and accessories that promote imaginative play and learning

Mega Bloks

Building blocks that allow children to engage in creative play and develop problem-solving skills

Uno Card Game

Classic card game that promotes social interaction and strategy

Polly Pocket

Small, collectible dolls and accessories that promote imaginative play

8. Mattel, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Mattel's products are moderately susceptible to substitution, as consumers may opt for alternative toys and games from competitors or digital entertainment options.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Mattel's customers, primarily parents and children, have significant bargaining power due to the availability of alternative products and the ease of switching between brands.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Mattel's suppliers, including manufacturers and raw material providers, have limited bargaining power due to the company's large scale and diversified supply chain.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the toy industry is relatively low due to the high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and established brand recognition.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The toy industry is highly competitive, with several established players, including Hasbro and Lego, competing for market share and consumer attention.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 52.83%
Debt Cost 8.88%
Equity Weight 47.17%
Equity Cost 8.88%
WACC 8.88%
Leverage 112.01%

11. Quality Control: Mattel, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Hasbro

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Planet Fitness

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Mattel

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
YETI

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
United Parks & Resorts

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Six Flags

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

16.47$

Current Price

16.47$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows