MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

MaxLinear, Inc.provides radiofrequency (RF), high-performance analog, and mixed-signal communications systems-on-chip solutions (SoCs) for the connected home, wired and wireless infrastructure, and industrial and multi-market applications worldwide.Its products integrate various portions of a high-speed communication system, including RF, high-performance analog, mixed-signal, digital signal processing, security engines, data compression, networking layers, and power management.

The company offers broadband radio transceiver front ends, data converters, embedded systems and software architecture, and architecture and system design for highly integrated end-to-end communication platform solutions.Its products are used in various electronic devices, such as cable data over cable service interface specifications (DOCSIS), fiber and DSL broadband modems and gateways; Wi-Fi and wireline routers for home networking; radio transceivers and modems for 4G/5G base-station and backhaul infrastructure; and fiber-optic modules for data center, metro, and long-haul transport networks, as well as power management and interface products.It serves electronics distributors, module makers, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and original design manufacturers (ODMs) through a direct sales force, third-party sales representatives, and a network of distributors.

The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Carlsbad, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on MXL

MaxLinear's recent performance was negatively impacted by a Q4 loss of $0.09 per share, despite topping revenue estimates. The company's earnings call highlighted concerns over its financials, with investors questioning the board's fiduciary duties. Furthermore, a class action complaint was filed against MaxLinear in August 2023, adding to the company's woes. However, MaxLinear has been actively expanding its product offerings, including the launch of its 5G Repeater platform with Morelink Technology and the unveiling of its Rushmore DSP for AI/ML and data center networks.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	18.47
Change Percentage	1.26%
Open	18.1
Previous Close	18.24
Market Cap ( Millions)	1597
Volume	646798
Year High	20.82
Year Low	8.35
M A 50	18.38
M A 200	15.75

FCF Yield	0.44%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	-28.80%
Debt / Equity	34.82%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-91.73%
Price To Book	3.57
Price Earnings Ratio	-11.79
Price To FCF	227.43
Price To sales	3.41
EV / EBITDA	-18.54

2. MaxLinear's 2025 Earnings: A Year of Inflection

In 2025, MaxLinear marked a significant turning point with a 30% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by robust execution and accelerating adoption of its new products. The company's Q4 2025 revenue was $136.4 million, an 8% increase from the previous quarter and a 48% rise from Q4 2024. The actual EPS for the period came in at $0.19, slightly beating estimates of $0.18. The company's strong financial performance was further underscored by its $20 million share repurchase, reflecting confidence in its sustained growth expectations.

Publication Date: Feb -09

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    2025 Revenue Growth:
                                                MaxLinear achieved 30% year-over-year revenue growth in 2025.
Q4 2025 Performance:
                                                Revenue reached $136.4 million, up 48% year-over-year and 8% quarter-over-quarter.
Infrastructure Business Surge:
                                                Infrastructure revenue grew 76% year-on-year in Q4 2025, driven by data center optical interconnects and storage accelerators.
Keystone PAM4 DSP Revenue:
                                                Expected to generate $100–130 million in 2026, targeting 4–6 million transceiver units at competitive ASPs.
Gross Margin Targets:
                                                GAAP gross margin guidance for Q1 2026: 56–59%; non-GAAP: 58–61%, with a year-end target of 59.5%.

                                

Segment Performance

The infrastructure business was a key driver of MaxLinear's growth, with revenue scaling 76% year-over-year in Q4, driven by data center optical interconnects, wireless infrastructure, and storage accelerators. The company's Keystone PAM4 DSP family is ramping at major hyperscale data centers, expected to generate $100 million to $130 million in revenue in 2026. Storage accelerators are also poised for strong growth, with revenue expected to at least double in 2026 compared to 2025.

Outlook and Guidance

MaxLinear expects its revenue to continue growing in 2026, driven by new design wins and expanding content opportunities across its product portfolio. For Q1 2026, the company guides revenue between $130 million and $140 million, with GAAP gross margin between 56% and 59% and non-GAAP gross margin between 58% and 61%. The company is confident in its growth prospects, especially on the infrastructure side, with gross margins expected to improve throughout the year.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of -11.95 and an EV/EBITDA of -18.66, MaxLinear's valuation suggests that the market has already priced in significant growth expectations. However, the company's P/S Ratio of 3.46 indicates that there may still be room for growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 10.7%, which, if achieved, could support the company's valuation. The authorized $75 million share repurchase program also conveys confidence in the company's balance sheet and growth trajectory.

Growth Opportunities

MaxLinear is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for data center clusters and data centers. The company has a design win with a Tier 1 OEM that could lead to hundreds of millions of dollars in silicon sales over the next two years. Additionally, the company is seeing opportunities in the industrial control and telemetry markets for data center racks, which could be a significant play. The growth in optical DSP could equate to 4 million to 6 million units of transceivers, with an ASP that reflects the company's competitive positioning.

3. NewsRoom

MaxLinear Appoints Kris Sennesael to Board of Directors

Feb -17

Source: businesswire.com

Allianz Asset Management GmbH Buys 197,126 Shares of MaxLinear, Inc $MXL

Feb -11

Source: defenseworld.net

AIGH Capital Dumps 1.1 Million MaxLinear (MXL) Shares

Feb -02

Source: fool.com

Summit Global Investments Takes Position in MaxLinear, Inc $MXL

Feb -01

Source: defenseworld.net

MaxLinear Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Jan -31

Source: defenseworld.net

MaxLinear Q4: Still A Lot Of Positives, But Lumpy Performance To Be Expected

Jan -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Jan -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

MaxLinear (MXL) Tops Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Jan -29

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.32%)

6. Segments

Broadband

Expected Growth: 10.3%

Growing demand for high-speed internet, increasing adoption of fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and hybrid fiber-coaxial (HFC) networks, and rising need for reliable and fast data transmission drive the growth of MaxLinear's broadband segment.

Infrastructure

Expected Growth: 10.3%

Growing demand for high-speed data transmission and processing in broadband, connectivity, and storage applications drives the growth of MaxLinear's infrastructure. Increasing adoption of 5G, IoT, and cloud computing further fuels the demand for analog and mixed-signal ICs.

Industrial and Multi-market

Expected Growth: 10.3%

Growing demand for high-performance analog and mixed-signal ICs in industrial automation, 5G infrastructure, and IoT devices drives the market growth, fueled by increasing adoption of Industry 4.0 and digital transformation.

Connectivity

Expected Growth: 10.4%

Growing demand for high-speed data transfer in data centers, enterprises, and telecom applications drives the growth of MaxLinear's connectivity solutions, fueled by increasing adoption of cloud computing, 5G networks, and IoT devices.

7. Detailed Products

Broadband and Connectivity

MaxLinear's broadband and connectivity products provide high-speed data transmission and connectivity solutions for various applications, including cable modems, set-top boxes, and small cells.

Infrastructure and Access

MaxLinear's infrastructure and access products provide high-performance, low-power solutions for infrastructure and access applications, including fiber-to-the-home (FTTH), 5G, and IoT.

Audio and Voice

MaxLinear's audio and voice products provide high-fidelity audio and voice processing solutions for applications such as smart speakers, soundbars, and voice assistants.

Power Management

MaxLinear's power management products provide high-efficiency, low-power solutions for applications such as data centers, servers, and storage systems.

Optical Interconnect

MaxLinear's optical interconnect products provide high-speed, low-power optical interconnect solutions for data center and high-performance computing applications.

8. MaxLinear, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

MaxLinear, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes due to the availability of alternative semiconductor products from competitors.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

MaxLinear, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers, giving the company an upper hand in negotiations.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

MaxLinear, Inc. relies on a few key suppliers for its semiconductor products, giving them some bargaining power, but the company's size and diversification mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The semiconductor industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and technological expertise, making it difficult for new entrants to compete with MaxLinear, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The semiconductor industry is highly competitive, with many established players, leading to intense rivalry and pricing pressure for MaxLinear, Inc.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	18.69%
Debt Cost	5.92%
Equity Weight	81.31%
Equity Cost	13.51%
WACC	12.09%
Leverage	22.99%

11. Quality Control: MaxLinear, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

nLIGHT

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Amtech Systems

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Aehr Test

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

AXT

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 0.8

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

MaxLinear

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 0.6

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

CEVA

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 7.5

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

48.44%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

12.09%

MaxLinear, Inc. - US57776J1007

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on MXL

1.c. Company Highlights

Lower Quality

Fairly Valued

Stable Momentum

Earnings Miss

Revenues Beats

Revenues Miss

Average Growth

Cheaper

Medium Volatility

Higher Growth

Weak Momentum

More Volatile

Earnings Beats

Lower Growth

2. MaxLinear's 2025 Earnings: A Year of Inflection

Segment Performance

Outlook and Guidance

Valuation

Growth Opportunities

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.32%)

6. Segments

Broadband

Expected Growth: 10.3%

Infrastructure

Expected Growth: 10.3%

Industrial and Multi-market

Expected Growth: 10.3%

Connectivity

Expected Growth: 10.4%

7. Detailed Products

Broadband and Connectivity

Infrastructure and Access

Audio and Voice

Power Management

Optical Interconnect

8. MaxLinear, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: MaxLinear, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.47$

Current Price

18.47$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA