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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes weight loss, weight management, healthy living products, and other consumable health and nutritional products in the United States and the Asia-Pacific.The company offers bars, bites, pretzels, puffs, cereal crunch, drinks, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, pudding, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, and soups under the OPTAVIA, Optimal Health by Take Shape for Life, and Flavors of Home brands.It markets its products through point-of-sale transactions over ecommerce platform.


The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

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1.b. Last Insights on MED

Medifast's recent performance has been hindered by a decline in customer acquisition, leading to a dip in revenue year-over-year. The company's efforts to enhance coach productivity have been prioritized, but the impact of this initiative remains to be seen. Furthermore, the introduction of GLP-1 medication has caused a vicious flywheel effect, resulting in a significant decline in demand and coach losses. This has forced Medifast to reposition itself as a GLP-1 adjacent business, but the effectiveness of this strategy is still uncertain.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Medifast's Q3 2025 Earnings: Navigating Challenges in the Weight Loss Industry

Medifast reported revenue of $89.4 million for the third quarter, a decrease of 36.2% year-over-year. The gross profit decreased 41.2% year-over-year to $62.2 million, driven by lower sales volumes and a reserve for the reformulation of the Essential product line. The net loss in the third quarter was $2.3 million or $0.21 loss per diluted share, missing analyst estimates of a loss per share of $0.01. The company's gross margin was impacted by the decline in sales and the product reformulation costs.

Publication Date: Nov -21

📋 Highlights

Operational Efficiency

Despite the decline in revenue, Medifast managed to reduce its SG&A expense by 36% year-over-year to $66.2 million, demonstrating the company's efforts to control costs. The company is also investing in its digital platforms to enhance the coaching and client experience, with enhancements to the app and reporting tools providing better visibility into client progress and coach performance.

Strategy and Outlook

Medifast's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Dan Chard, emphasized the company's focus on metabolic health, stating that the company's clinically studied plan is designed to address the underlying causes of metabolic dysfunction. The company expects fourth quarter revenue to range from $65 million to $80 million and a loss per share for the quarter ranging from $0.70 to $1.25. As Chard noted, "the company's aim is not just to respond to the rise of GLP-1s, but to define what the next generation of metabolic health solutions will look like."

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/S Ratio of 0.27 and an EV/EBITDA of 2.81, Medifast's valuation suggests that the market is pricing in significant challenges for the company. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -11.7%, indicating a continued decline in sales. However, the company's strong balance sheet, with no debt and over $170 million in cash and investments, provides a foundation for future growth. Medifast's focus on metabolic health and its coach-guided system may position it for long-term success, despite the current challenges.

Future Directions

The company is taking steps to train its coaches on the new direction of metabolic synchronization, with plans to train the entire coach network by the end of the year. The EDGE program is also expected to yield higher productive coach ranks and better revenue growth. While the current financial performance is challenging, Medifast's efforts to adapt to the changing landscape in the weight loss industry may ultimately drive future growth.

3. NewsRoom

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Critical Comparison: Celsius (NASDAQ:CELH) versus Medifast (NYSE:MED)

Nov -22

Source: defenseworld.net

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Marzetti (NASDAQ:MZTI) vs. Medifast (NYSE:MED) Financial Comparison

Nov -18

Source: defenseworld.net

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Acadian Asset Management LLC Grows Stock Position in Medifast Inc $MED

Nov -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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Medifast Scientific & Clinical Affairs Team Showcases New Research in Metabolic Health at ObesityWeek Conference

Nov -13

Source: businesswire.com

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Medifast (NYSE:MED) and Celsius (NASDAQ:CELH) Head to Head Review

Nov -11

Source: defenseworld.net

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Medifast's Q3 Loss Wider Than Expected, Sales Decline 36% Y/Y

Nov -04

Source: zacks.com

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Medifast, Inc. (MED) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -03

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Medifast Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -03

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.50%)

6. Segments

Weight Loss, Weight Management and Healthy Living Products

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Medifast's 8.5% growth in Weight Loss, Weight Management and Healthy Living Products is driven by increasing health awareness, rising obesity rates, and growing demand for convenient, at-home weight loss solutions. Strong brand recognition, expanding distribution channels, and innovative product offerings also contribute to the company's growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Medifast Meals

Pre-packaged, portion-controlled meals designed to support weight loss and overall health

Optavia Fuelings

Nutritionally-balanced, portion-controlled snacks and meals designed to support optimal health and wellness

Medifast Bars

Nutritionally-balanced, portion-controlled bars designed to support weight loss and overall health

Medifast Shakes

Nutritionally-balanced, portion-controlled shakes designed to support weight loss and overall health

Optavia Coach

Personalized coaching and support services designed to help individuals achieve their health and wellness goals

Optavia Community

Online community and support platform designed to connect individuals with similar health and wellness goals

8. Medifast, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Medifast's meal replacement products face moderate threat from substitutes, including fresh food, nutrition supplements, and other weight loss programs.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Medifast's customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong brand reputation and lack of direct competition.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Medifast's suppliers have limited bargaining power due to the company's large scale of operations and diversified supply chain.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and significant capital investments required to establish a similar business model.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The weight loss industry is highly competitive, with many established players, including Nutrisystem, Jenny Craig, and Weight Watchers, which increases the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 9.85%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 90.15%
Equity Cost 9.99%
WACC 9.39%
Leverage 10.93%

11. Quality Control: Medifast, Inc. passed 8 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Weyco

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 6.0

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Ethan Allen

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 6.7

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Carriage Services

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.3

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H&R Block

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Mister Car Wash

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Medifast

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

10.99$

Current Price

10.99$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows