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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally.Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines.The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics.


It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc.and changed its name to Moderna, Inc.in August 2018.


Moderna, Inc.was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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1.b. Last Insights on MRNA

Breaking News: Moderna Inc stock fell sharply on December 1 as FDA plans to implement stricter approval requirements for vaccines raised investor concerns about potential delays and increased scrutiny for the company's pipeline of new products. The announcement weighed on shares of major vaccine makers. There is no recent earnings release to comment on. Analysts at various firms have not publicly changed their recommendations on the stock following this news. Some analysts previously recommended a buy or hold on Moderna Inc.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Moderna's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Stronger Path to Profitability

Moderna reported a revenue of $1 billion for the third quarter of 2025, driven by sales of its fully approved vaccines, including Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, and mRESVIA. The net loss for the quarter was $200 million, and the company ended the quarter with $6.6 billion in cash and investments. The actual EPS came out at '-0.51282', beating estimates of '-2.15'. The company's cost reduction efforts have been successful, with a 34% reduction in cost of sales, R&D, and SG&A combined compared to the third quarter of 2024.

Publication Date: Nov -07

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue & Cash Position:: Q3 2025 revenue reached $1 billion, with $6.6 billion in cash and investments, despite a $200 million net loss.
  • Cost Reduction Success:: 34% decline in combined cost of sales, R&D, and SG&A vs. Q3 2024, achieving $2.1 billion in cost improvements over four quarters.
  • Commercial Product Growth:: mNEXSPIKE secured 55% of U.S. COVID vaccination volume, with Moderna’s U.S. market share rising to 42% (up 2 pts YoY).
  • Pipeline Advancement:: Positive Phase III flu data for mRNA-1010 and mRNA-1083, plus 5+ clinical candidates in Phase II/III trials, including oncology programs like mRNA-4359.
  • 2025 Financial Outlook:: Revenue projected at $1.6–$2 billion, with year-end cash balance lifted to $6.5–$7 billion due to $900 million in cash cost cuts.

Financial Performance

The company's financial discipline is evident in its cost reduction efforts, which have resulted in a $2.1 billion improvement in costs across cost of goods, SG&A, and R&D versus the prior four quarters. The company has lowered its 2025 cash cost estimate by $900 million, resulting in a higher projected year-end cash balance of $6.5 billion to $7 billion. As Jamey Mock, Chief Financial Officer, noted, "We have delivered a significant improvement in costs, and we expect to continue improving our cost structure and driving productivity."

Commercial Progress

Moderna's commercial business is expected to benefit from market share gains of mNEXSPIKE, which will continue in 2026 and beyond. The company's COVID retail market share is 42%, up 2 percentage points from last year, with mNEXSPIKE making up 55% of COVID vaccination volume. The company is working with governments worldwide to launch mNEXSPIKE outside the US for the next season, expecting growth in the brand as part of their overall franchise.

Pipeline Advancements

The company has made significant progress in advancing its pipeline, with positive Phase III flu efficacy data for mRNA-1010 and mRNA-1083, and encouraging Phase Ib data for cancer antigen therapy, mRNA-4359. The company's prioritized pipeline consists of three approved products, two programs with positive Phase III results, and five candidates in clinical studies with registrational potential.

Valuation

Moderna's current valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of -3.05, P/B Ratio of 1.02, and P/S Ratio of 4.26. The company's EV/EBITDA is -2.95, and its ROE is -31.4%. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 13.1%. These metrics suggest that the market is pricing in a significant improvement in the company's financial performance, which is in line with Moderna's strategic priorities and pipeline advancements.

3. NewsRoom

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Market Today: WBD Sale Bids, Meta Cuts, Apple Shake-Up

Dec -04

Source: gurufocus.com

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Moderna (MRNA) Recently Broke Out Above the 20-Day Moving Average

Dec -04

Source: zacks.com

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First Look: Insurers, Auto Rules, AI and Fed Jitters

Dec -04

Source: gurufocus.com

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Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Presents at Piper Sandler 37th Annual Healthcare Conference Transcript

Dec -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Dow Jones Today: Stocks Gain After Major Indexes Snap 5-Session Winning Streaks; Tech, Crypto-Tied Shares Rebound

Dec -02

Source: investopedia.com

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Vaccine Stocks Fall After FDA Plans to Impose Stricter Vaccine Rules

Dec -02

Source: zacks.com

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Dow Jones Today: Stock Indexes Close Lower to Begin December Trading; Big Tech, Crypto-Tied Shares Drop Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

Dec -02

Source: investopedia.com

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Market Today: Crypto Rout, Omnicom Cuts, Nvidia--Synopsys Deal

Dec -01

Source: gurufocus.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (16.70%)

6. Segments

Biotechnology

Expected Growth: 16.7%

The biotechnology segment is expected to grow at 16.7% due to the increasing demand for mRNA-based therapeutics and vaccines, driven by the company's diversified pipeline and potential for future product approvals. The segment's growth will be fueled by ongoing clinical trials and partnerships, as well as the expanding use of mRNA technology in various therapeutic areas. This growth rate reflects the segment's potential for long-term success and its position in the rapidly evolving biotechnology industry.

7. Detailed Products

mRNA-1273 (COVID-19 Vaccine)

A vaccine against COVID-19, encoding for a prefusion stabilized spike protein

mRNA-4157 (Vaccine against VEGF-A)

A vaccine against vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A), a protein involved in angiogenesis

mRNA-4151 (Vaccine against OX40L)

A vaccine against OX40L, a protein involved in T cell activation and immune response

mRNA-528 (Vaccine against IL-23)

A vaccine against interleukin-23 (IL-23), a protein involved in autoimmune diseases

mRNA-2752 (Vaccine against CMV)

A vaccine against cytomegalovirus (CMV), a common viral infection

mRNA-1647 (Vaccine against RSV)

A vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a common cause of respiratory illness

8. Moderna, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Moderna's mRNA technology provides a unique value proposition, making it difficult for substitutes to emerge.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

While customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternative vaccine options, Moderna's strong brand reputation and innovative products mitigate this force.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Moderna has a diversified supplier base, reducing dependence on individual suppliers and minimizing the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the development of mRNA technology, attracting new entrants to the market, increasing competition, and posing a significant threat to Moderna's market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The COVID-19 vaccine market is highly competitive, with multiple players vying for market share, leading to intense rivalry and pricing pressure.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 8.23%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 91.77%
Equity Cost 11.75%
WACC 11.11%
Leverage 8.97%

11. Quality Control: Moderna, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 8.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Vertex Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 1.5

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 8.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
G1 Therapeutics

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Immunome

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Praxis Precision Medicines

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Moderna

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

27.7$

Current Price

27.7$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows