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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

ModivCare Inc., a technology-enabled healthcare services company, provides a suite of integrated supportive care solutions for public and private payors and patients.The company operates through four segments: Non-Emergency Medical Transportation (NEMT), Personal Care, Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM), and the Matrix Investment.The NEMT segment offers contact center management, network credentialing, claims management, and non-emergency medical transport management services for Medicaid or Medicare eligible members, whose limited mobility or financial resources hinder their ability to access necessary healthcare and social services.


The Personal Care segment provides bathing, personal hygiene, grooming, oral care, dressing, medication reminders, meal planning, preparation and feeding, housekeeping, transportation services, prescription reminders, and assistance with dressing and ambulation services through placing non-medical personal care assistants, home health aides, and skilled nurses primarily to Medicaid patients in need of care monitoring and assistance in performing daily living activities, including senior citizens and disabled adults.The RPM segment offers personal emergency response systems, vitals monitoring, medication management, and data-driven patient engagement solutions.The Matrix Investment segment provides in-home and on-site care services, as well as a fleet of mobile health clinics that offers community-based care with advanced diagnostic capabilities and care options.


It serves federal, state, and local government agencies, MCOs, commercial insurers, private individuals, and health systems.The company was formerly known as The Providence Service Corporation and changed its name to ModivCare Inc.in January 2021.


ModivCare Inc.was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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1.b. Last Insights on MODV

ModivCare's recent performance was negatively impacted by ongoing securities investigations and potential claims against the company. Multiple law firms, including Levi & Korsinsky and Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC, have initiated investigations into possible violations of federal securities laws. These investigations, which began in January 2025, are ongoing and may lead to further scrutiny of the company's financial practices.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. ModivCare Inc. Q1 2025 Earnings: Navigating Challenges Amid Strategic Progress

ModivCare Inc. reported a mixed bag in its Q1 2025 earnings, reflecting both progress on strategic initiatives and ongoing financial pressures. Revenue for the quarter came in at $650.7 million, a 5% year-over-year decline, driven by NEMT contract attrition, lower PCS billed hours, and monitoring membership churn. The company posted a net loss of $50.4 million, widening from $22.3 million in the prior year, with adjusted net loss per share of $1.71, missing consensus estimates of $0.34. Adjusted EBITDA remained flat at $32.6 million, while margins in NEMT and PCS segments showed resilience despite revenue headwinds. The stock's valuation reflects these challenges, with a P/E ratio of -0.08, P/B ratio of -0.43, and EV/EBITDA of 154.12, signaling significant investor skepticism.

Publication Date: May -10

📋 Highlights
  • Growing Core Customer Relationships: - Secured $52M Medicaid contracts and $246M renewals, with a $500M pipeline, despite losing a $15M contract.
  • Digitizing Care Access Platform: - Achieved 36.1% self-service ratio, 1.2% unit cost reduction, and 31.2% fewer complaints in NEMT.
  • Optimizing Operating Model: - Targeting $25M G&A savings, consolidated leadership, and reduced G&A by $1M in personal care.
  • Increasing Capital Efficiency: - Collected $30M early, improved cash flow predictability, and held $116M cash and $269M revolver balance.
  • Delivering Client-Centric Supportive Care: - PCS revenue up 9% YoY in adjusted EBITDA, with monitoring margin at 29%.

1. Growing Core Customer Relationships

ModivCare made strides in expanding its core customer base, securing two new Medicaid managed care contracts in NEMT worth $52 million annually, with $38 million expected in-year revenue. The company also submitted four state contract renewals totaling $246 million and highlighted a robust pipeline of $500 million for 2026. However, the loss of a $15 million regional contract due to vendor consolidation underscored the competitive landscape. In personal care, four strategic agreements were signed, expected to generate 90,000 monthly service hours with strong margins. Monitoring also saw expansion, with two new Medicaid markets added and a 45% year-over-year growth in Indiana.

2. Digitizing and Automating Care Access Platform

Digitization efforts showed tangible results, with self-service call-to-trip ratios in NEMT rising to 36.1%, up from 31% last year. Automated intake and adjudication reduced unit costs by 1.2%, while digital trip volume exceeded 1 million. Complaints fell 31.2%, and on-time performance improved to 95.2%. In personal care, digital tools for scheduling and compliance achieved a 72% completion rate among caregivers. Monitoring also benefited from a cloud-based continuity platform and RCM automation, enhancing operational efficiency.

3. Optimizing Operating Model

The company launched a G&A reduction initiative targeting $25 million in annualized savings, with leadership changes including the departures of CFO Barbara Gutierrez and CIO Jessica Kral. Operational integration under regional leadership in NEMT and a hub-and-spoke model in personal care contributed to a $1 million G&A reduction. CEO Heath Sampson noted, "Our focus on cost savings and operational alignment is critical as we navigate this transition period."

4. Increasing Capital Efficiency

Following a January capital raise, ModivCare emphasized improving cash flow and reducing capital intensity. Transitioning large NEMT customers to faster-settling models enhanced collection predictability, with $30 million in receivables collected two months early. A strategic alternatives committee is overseeing portfolio and capital reviews, including potential divestitures, as the company seeks to deleverage and optimize its asset base.

5. Delivering Client-Centric Supportive Care

ModivCare reiterated its vision to unify fragmented supportive care services, positioning itself as the digital infrastructure for payers, providers, and members. This approach aims to improve satisfaction and lower care costs, though execution challenges remain. The company's strategic outlook hinges on balancing near-term financial pressures with long-term growth initiatives.

3. NewsRoom

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ChatGPT picks 2 penny stocks to buy in Q4 2025

Sep -28

Source: finbold.com

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MODIVCARE ALERT: Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. Continues Investigating ModivCare, Inc. on Behalf of Long-Term Stockholders and Encourages Investors to Contact the Firm

Jul -31

Source: globenewswire.com

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Modivcare Celebrates Over a Decade of Serving Suffolk Community Member

Jun -25

Source: businesswire.com

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ModivCare, Inc. (MODV) Investigation: Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Encourages Shareholders to Contact the Firm to Learn More About the Investigation

Jun -17

Source: accessnewswire.com

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Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Initiates an Investigation into Allegations Against ModivCare, Inc. (MODV) And Encourages Stockholders to Reach Out

Jun -15

Source: accessnewswire.com

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Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Is Investigating ModivCare, Inc. (MODV) And Encourages Stockholders to Connect

Jun -12

Source: accessnewswire.com

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Kuehn Law Encourages Investors of ModivCare, Inc. to Contact Law Firm

Jun -10

Source: prnewswire.com

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ModivCare, Inc. (MODV) Investigation: Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Encourages Stockholders to Contact the Firm to Learn More About the Investigation

Jun -10

Source: accessnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.45%)

6. Segments

Non-emergency Medical Transportation

Expected Growth: 4.5%

ModivCare's Non-emergency Medical Transportation segment growth is driven by increasing demand for healthcare access, aging population, and government initiatives to reduce healthcare costs. Additionally, the company's strategic acquisitions, expanded service offerings, and investments in technology to improve operational efficiency are contributing to the 4.5% growth.

Personal Care

Expected Growth: 4.2%

ModivCare's Personal Care segment growth of 4.2% is driven by increasing demand for non-medical home care services, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the growing elderly population and government initiatives to promote home-based care are contributing to the segment's growth.

Remote Patient Monitoring

Expected Growth: 5.5%

ModivCare's Remote Patient Monitoring growth is driven by increasing adoption of telehealth, aging population, and chronic disease prevalence. Government incentives for value-based care, improved patient outcomes, and reduced healthcare costs also contribute to the 5.5% growth. Additionally, advancements in wearable technology, AI-powered analytics, and 5G network infrastructure enable seamless data transmission, further fueling growth.

Corporate and Other Segment

Expected Growth: 3.8%

ModivCare's Corporate and Other Segment growth of 3.8% is driven by increasing demand for non-emergency medical transportation services, expansion into new markets, and strategic investments in technology and operational efficiencies. Additionally, the segment benefits from a diversified revenue stream, including management fees and other services, contributing to its steady growth.

7. Detailed Products

Non-Emergency Medical Transportation (NEMT)

ModivCare provides non-emergency medical transportation services to help individuals with disabilities, elderly, and low-income communities access healthcare services.

Personal Care Services

ModivCare offers personal care services, including assistance with daily living activities, to support individuals with disabilities, elderly, and those with chronic conditions.

Viewpoint EHR

ModivCare's Viewpoint EHR is an electronic health record system designed for non-emergency medical transportation and personal care services providers.

ModivCare Mobility

ModivCare Mobility provides transportation management services, including ride-hailing and transportation network company (TNC) integration, to healthcare providers and payers.

Data Analytics and Insights

ModivCare offers data analytics and insights services to help healthcare providers and payers optimize operations, reduce costs, and improve patient outcomes.

8. ModivCare Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

ModivCare Inc. operates in a niche market, providing non-emergency medical transportation services, which reduces the threat of substitutes. However, the company still faces competition from other transportation providers, which prevents the score from being lower.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

ModivCare Inc.'s customers are primarily government agencies and healthcare organizations, which have limited bargaining power due to the specialized nature of the services provided.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

ModivCare Inc. relies on a network of transportation providers, which gives them some bargaining power. However, the company's scale and specialized services reduce the suppliers' negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The non-emergency medical transportation market has high barriers to entry, including regulatory requirements and the need for specialized vehicles and equipment, which reduces the threat of new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

ModivCare Inc. operates in a competitive market, but the company's scale and specialized services provide a competitive advantage, reducing the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 87.63%
Debt Cost 6.10%
Equity Weight 12.37%
Equity Cost 6.10%
WACC 6.10%
Leverage 708.27%

11. Quality Control: ModivCare Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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ModivCare

A-Score: 2.5/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

0.43$

Current Price

0.43$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows