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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

P3 Health Partners Inc., a patient-centered and physician-led population health management company, provides superior care services in the United States.It operates clinics and wellness centers.The company is based in Henderson, Nevada.

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1.b. Last Insights on PIII

P3 Health Partners Inc.'s recent performance was driven by successful implementation of its Professional Health Partners Services (P3) across four states, launched in May 2025. The company's Q2 2025 earnings call highlighted progress in its business, with management focusing on growth strategies. Despite a quarterly loss of $6.23 per share, which lagged revenue estimates, the company's loss narrowed from $7.5 per share a year ago. Catalyst Solutions' successful implementation of P3 may position the company for future growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. P3 Health Partners' Q3 2025 Earnings: A Transitional Year

P3 Health Partners reported total capitated revenue of $341.6 million for the third quarter of 2025, with a medical margin of $4.4 million or $13 per member per month. The company's adjusted EBITDA loss was $45.9 million for the quarter and $85.2 million year-to-date, with a normalized adjusted EBITDA loss of approximately $70 million. The actual EPS came out at '-9.67' relative to estimates at '-5.2925'. The company's membership stood at approximately 116,000 members.

Publication Date: Nov -21

📋 Highlights
  • 6% Capitated Revenue Growth:: Total capitated revenue reached $341.6 million, reflecting a 6% increase in capitated revenue.
  • $100M+ EBITDA Improvement:: Year-over-year EBITDA improved by over $100 million, driven by operational efficiency and cost reductions.
  • 13,000 Accretive ACO Members:: Strategic joint venture added 13,000 fully accretive ACO members, with 25,000 Medicare Advantage lives in 2026 pipeline.
  • Revised EBITDA Guidance:: Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance now at -$110M to -$95M, reflecting normalized performance and process corrections.
  • 500 Basis Points Gross Margin Expansion:: Flat PMPM cost trend in Q3 positions the company for at least 500 bps of gross margin growth in 2026 if sustained.

Operational Highlights

The company is making progress in its Care Enablement Model, driving stabilization across medical management, quality performance, and alignment to population burden of illness. The model has contributed to a flat normalized medical cost trend and is expected to drive $120 million to $170 million in EBITDA expansion opportunities in 2026. The company is also executing on a strategic joint venture and has added 13,000 fully accretive ACO members.

Guidance and Outlook

P3 Health Partners has revised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of minus $110 million to minus $95 million. The company expects a 5% net improvement in premium in 2026, driven by rate increases, and is seeing improvements in burden of illness operations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 11.5%. The company's guidance reduction was partly due to old processes that have been corrected, and a smaller portion was related to delayed medical cost initiatives that will be implemented in 2026.

Valuation and Metrics

The company's valuation metrics indicate a challenging financial situation, with a P/E Ratio of -0.11, P/B Ratio of -1.03, and EV/EBITDA of -0.17. The company's ROE is -409.55%, and ROIC is -72.69%. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is -0.07, indicating a relatively low debt burden. As the company works to improve its EBITDA and achieve profitability, these metrics are expected to improve.

Future Prospects

P3 Health Partners is working to address non-core assets that are dragging on performance and is expecting contractual adjustments in one of its markets to contribute to EBITDA expansion in 2026. The company is also improving its relationships with payors and expects to eliminate miscommunications and late communications, contributing to its growth. With a more durable business foundation in place, the company is poised for meaningful profitability in 2026.

3. NewsRoom

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P3 Health Partners (NASDAQ:PIII) & CVR Medical (OTCMKTS:CRRVF) Head to Head Contrast

Dec -03

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P3 Expands Footprint Through Joint Venture With Commonwealth Primary Care ACO

Dec -02

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P3 Health Partners to Present at the Noble Capital Markets 21st Annual Emerging Growth Equity Conference

Nov -24

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P3 Health Partners Inc. (PIII) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -14

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P3 Health Partners Schedules Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Oct -21

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Financial Review: P3 Health Partners (NASDAQ:PIII) vs. Clover Health Investments (NASDAQ:CLOV)

Oct -20

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Catalyst Solutions Announces Successful Launch of P3 Implementation Across Four States

Aug -25

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P3 Health Partners Inc. (PIII) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aug -15

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.98%)

6. Segments

Capitated

Expected Growth: 12%

P3 Health Partners Inc.'s 12% capitated growth driven by increasing demand for value-based care, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on population health management, care coordination, and cost reduction initiatives contribute to its growth. Furthermore, the shift towards risk-based reimbursement models and the need for healthcare providers to manage patient populations more effectively also support this growth.

Other Patient Service - Care Coordination / Management Fees

Expected Growth: 11%

P3 Health Partners Inc.'s 11% growth in Other Patient Service - Care Coordination/Management Fees is driven by increasing adoption of value-based care, rising demand for care coordination services, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's focus on improving patient outcomes and reducing healthcare costs through its care management programs has contributed to the growth.

Other Patient Service - Clinical Fees & Insurance

Expected Growth: 10%

P3 Health Partners Inc.'s 10% growth in Other Patient Service - Clinical Fees & Insurance is driven by increasing demand for value-based care, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, investments in digital health infrastructure and enhanced patient engagement platforms have improved operational efficiency, leading to higher revenue capture.

Other Patient Service - Incentive Fees

Expected Growth: 9%

P3 Health Partners Inc.'s 9% growth in Other Patient Service - Incentive Fees is driven by increasing adoption of value-based care models, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships with healthcare providers. Additionally, the company's focus on population health management and care coordination has led to improved patient outcomes, resulting in higher incentive fees.

7. Detailed Products

Population Health Management

A comprehensive platform that aggregates and analyzes patient data to identify gaps in care, improve health outcomes, and reduce costs.

Care Coordination

A service that facilitates communication and collaboration between healthcare providers, patients, and caregivers to ensure seamless transitions of care.

Value-Based Care

A payment model that incentivizes healthcare providers to deliver high-quality, cost-effective care by aligning reimbursement with patient outcomes.

Practice Transformation

A service that helps healthcare providers transition to value-based care by optimizing clinical workflows, implementing new technologies, and developing population health management capabilities.

Analytics and Insights

A data analytics platform that provides actionable insights to healthcare providers, enabling them to identify opportunities for improvement and optimize clinical and financial performance.

8. P3 Health Partners Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

P3 Health Partners Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the company's focus on value-based care and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

P3 Health Partners Inc. has a diverse customer base, but the bargaining power of customers is high due to the highly competitive nature of the industry and the availability of alternative healthcare providers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

P3 Health Partners Inc. has a strong negotiating position with its suppliers due to its large scale of operations and its ability to negotiate favorable contracts.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the healthcare industry is moderate, as there are significant barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and the need for significant capital investment.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The healthcare industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share, which increases the intensity of rivalry for P3 Health Partners Inc.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 43.86%
Debt Cost 10.19%
Equity Weight 56.14%
Equity Cost 10.19%
WACC 10.19%
Leverage 78.11%

11. Quality Control: P3 Health Partners Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
P3 Health Partners

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
The Oncology Institute

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
DocGo

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
American Oncology Network

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Community Health Systems

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
InnovAge Holding

A-Score: 2.6/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

5.24$

Current Price

5.24$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows