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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States.The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States.As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent.


The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

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1.b. Last Insights on NOG

Breaking News: Northern Oil and Gas Inc reported a strong recent performance. The company is set to contrast with Blue Dolphin Energy based on various factors. Analysts are comparing the two energy companies on dividends, recommendations, risk, ownership, earnings, valuation and profitability. Northern Oil and Gas has shown a notable presence in the energy sector. Some analysts have given a buy recommendation for the stock. A recent critical contrast report detailed key areas where Northern Oil and Gas stands out against Blue Dolphin Energy.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. NOG's Q3 Earnings: Strong Production Growth and Strategic Capital Management

NOG's Q3 financial performance was marked by a net loss of $129 million, largely due to a non-cash impairment charge of $319 million. However, the company's adjusted EBITDA was $387.1 million, and free cash flow was $118.9 million. The actual EPS came out at a loss, but the company's operational performance was strong, with total average daily production reaching approximately 131,000 BOE per day, up 8% versus Q3 2024. The company's oil production was 73,000 barrels of oil per day, up 2% from Q3 2024, while gas production reached a record 352 MMcf per day, up 15% from Q3 2024.

Publication Date: Nov -15

📋 Highlights
  • Production Growth:: Q3 2025 total average daily production rose 8% to 131,000 BOE/day (vs. Q3 2024), with gas production hitting a record 352 MMcf/day (+15%).
  • Capital Efficiency:: Avg. well cost per foot dropped to $806, with lateral lengths increasing across basins, driving improved returns and $118.9M free cash flow in Q3.
  • Liquidity Strengthening:: $725M in 2033-maturing notes and a 2030-extended credit facility will add over $300M liquidity by 2025, reducing future interest costs.
  • M&A Pipeline:: Robust $100M–$1B+ deal backlog beyond the Permian, prioritizing stakeholder benefits via a balanced debt-equity approach to maintain a strong balance sheet.
  • 2026 Outlook:: Production guidance raised to 132,500–134,000 BOE/day, with CapEx tightened to $950M–$1.025B, focusing on return-driven investments and gas growth potential.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was driven by its high-quality, low-breakeven operations and strategic capital allocation. NOG has grown its gas volumes into a stronger backdrop, and its recent minerals and royalty deal added long-term growth, low-risk assets to its portfolio. The company's average well cost per foot has decreased to $806, with lateral lengths increasing across basins, driving capital efficiency and improved returns.

Guidance and Outlook

NOG increased its annual production guidance to 132,500-134,000 BOE per day and tightened its CapEx guidance to $950 million-$1.025 billion. The company expects continued cost savings through efficiencies and potential vendor management, but notes that another step down in activity would be needed for material savings. NOG's outlook for 2026 is similar to its current activity level, with potential for material gas growth.

Capital Management and M&A

The company has been actively managing its balance sheet, including raising $725 million of notes maturing in 2033 and amending and restating its revolving credit facility, extending the tenure to 2030 and reducing future interest costs. NOG sees a broad and robust backlog of M&A opportunities, beyond just the Permian, with transactions ranging from $100 million to $1 billion. The company will focus on return-driven investments, considering operator behavior, project optionality, and breakevens.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of 11.96 and an EV/EBITDA of 1.88, NOG's valuation appears reasonable. The company's Dividend Yield is 7.93%, which is attractive for income investors. However, the Free Cash Flow Yield is -10.71%, indicating that the company's free cash flow is not sufficient to support its market value. As NOG continues to focus on return-driven investments and strategic capital management, its valuation is likely to be influenced by its ability to deliver strong operational performance and grow its gas volumes.

3. NewsRoom

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Critical Contrast: Blue Dolphin Energy (OTCMKTS:BDCO) and Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG)

Dec -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. $NOG Shares Sold by Geode Capital Management LLC

Nov -24

Source: defenseworld.net

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Campbell & CO Investment Adviser LLC Buys Shares of 14,839 Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. $NOG

Nov -17

Source: defenseworld.net

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Northern Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Miss, Both Down Y/Y

Nov -10

Source: zacks.com

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Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Q3 Earnings Top Estimates

Nov -07

Source: zacks.com

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NOG Announces Third Quarter 2025 Results

Nov -06

Source: businesswire.com

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NOG Reprices and Extends Its Revolving Credit Facility

Nov -06

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.27%)

6. Segments

Oil

Expected Growth: 5.0%

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s 5.0% growth in oil production is driven by increased drilling activities in the Williston Basin, improved well completion techniques, and enhanced oil recovery methods. Additionally, strategic acquisitions and partnerships have expanded the company's acreage and resource base, contributing to the growth.

Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids

Expected Growth: 7.0%

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s 7.0% growth in Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids is driven by increased production from its Williston Basin assets, improved well completion techniques, and higher commodity prices. Additionally, strategic acquisitions and a focus on operational efficiency have contributed to the company's growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and production of crude oil from its properties located in the Williston Basin, primarily in North Dakota and Montana.

Natural Gas

The company also produces natural gas, which is often found in association with crude oil, from its properties in the Williston Basin.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. also produces NGLs, which are extracted from natural gas and used as a feedstock for petrochemical plants.

Mineral Interests

The company acquires and holds mineral interests in oil and gas properties, providing a revenue stream through royalty payments.

8. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers of oil and gas equipment and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the oil and gas industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is high due to the presence of many established players in the oil and gas industry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 47.27%
Debt Cost 8.19%
Equity Weight 52.73%
Equity Cost 13.19%
WACC 10.82%
Leverage 89.64%

11. Quality Control: Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Matador Resources

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 8.8

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 4.7

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Permian Resources

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.3

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Northern Oil and Gas

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 8.7

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 4.0

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Magnolia Oil & Gas

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 6.7

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Murphy Oil

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 4.3

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Ovintiv

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

24.85$

Current Price

24.85$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows