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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company.It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility.The Exploration and Production segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil in California and in the Appalachian region of the United States.


As of September 30, 2021, it had proved developed and undeveloped reserves of 21,537 thousand barrels of oil and 3,723,433 million cubic feet of natural gas.The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation and storage services through an integrated gas pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York; and owns and operates underground natural gas storage fields.This segment also transports natural gas for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, as well as for other utilities, industrial companies, and power producers in New York State; and owns and operates the Empire Pipeline.


The Gathering segment builds, owns, and operates natural gas processing and pipeline gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca Resources Company, LLC.The Utility segment sells natural gas or provides natural gas transportation services to approximately 753,000 customers in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown, New York; and Erie and Sharon, Pennsylvania.The company markets gas to industrial, wholesale, commercial, public authority, and residential customers primarily in western and central New York, and northwestern Pennsylvania.


As of September 30, 2021, the company also owned approximately 95,000 acres of timber property; and managed approximately 2,500 additional acres of timber cutting rights.National Fuel Gas Company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.

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1.b. Last Insights on NFG

National Fuel Gas Company's recent performance was driven by a strong Q3 earnings beat, with earnings per share of $1.64 surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.5. The company's unregulated business divisions, including its Seneca natural gas production, contributed to higher profits. Additionally, National Fuel's unique vertical integration across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations sets it apart in the energy sector. The company's 55th consecutive year of dividend increases, with a 3.9% hike in June, also supports its strong recent performance.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. National Fuel Gas Delivers Strong Q1 FY2026 Earnings

National Fuel Gas reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.06 for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, beating analyst estimates of $1.91. The company's integrated upstream and gathering business delivered a 29% increase in adjusted EBITDA, driven by higher production and natural gas prices. Revenue growth was robust, and the company's regulated businesses performed well, with the 3-year rate settlement in New York and pipeline modernization tracker in Pennsylvania contributing to strong results.

Publication Date: Feb -10

📋 Highlights
  • Q1 Fiscal 2026 Adjusted EPS:: $2.06, aligning with expectations and on track for full-year guidance of $7.60–$8.10.
  • Upstream & Gathering EBITDA Growth:: 29% increase driven by higher production and natural gas prices.
  • Seneca Production Guidance:: 440–455 Bcf in fiscal 2026 with capital spending of $560M–$610M.
  • Rate Case Filing:: Pennsylvania utility seeks $20M rate increase (11% hike), below inflation, maintaining lowest-cost provider status.
  • Hedging Coverage:: 70% of remaining 2026 production hedged to mitigate natural gas price volatility risks.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was strong, with Seneca's inventory expanding and capital efficiency improving by 30% since 2023. The Tioga Pathway project and Shippingport Lateral Project are progressing, and the company plans to file a rate case to recover costs related to the modernization program and general expense inflation. The Utility business in Pennsylvania filed a new rate case requesting an approximately $20 million increase in rates.

Guidance and Outlook

The company reaffirmed its adjusted EPS guidance range of $7.60 to $8.10 for the full year, with the midpoint of $7.85. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 24.1% for the next year. The company's hedge book provides downside protection for 70% of its remaining production for the fiscal year. Capital plans remain unchanged, with a focus on debt financing for the CenterPoint acquisition.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 11.83, P/B Ratio of 2.16, and EV/EBITDA of 7.01, the company's valuation metrics indicate a relatively stable position. The Dividend Yield is 2.49%, and the Free Cash Flow Yield is 2.54%. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is 8.58%, and Return on Equity (ROE) is 21.09%. The Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is 1.66, indicating a manageable debt position. As Justin Loweth noted, "We're focused on capital efficiency through well-designed testing, co-development pilots, and operational optimization, which support best-in-class margins and growing free cash flow."

Growth Initiatives

The company is targeting mid-single-digit production growth over the next several years, with a focus on interstate pipeline capacity. The Upper Utica development is being tested with a co-development strategy, and the company is exploring ways to expand its Upper Utica inventory. The management is cautiously optimistic about seeing more takeaway capacity out of the basin, with projects like the Tioga Pathway and Line N Lateral.

3. NewsRoom

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Envestnet Asset Management Inc. Acquires 10,577 Shares of National Fuel Gas Company $NFG

Feb -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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Dividend Kings: No Ideal Buys In February's 57

Feb -10

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Allianz Asset Management GmbH Lowers Stock Holdings in National Fuel Gas Company $NFG

Feb -09

Source: defenseworld.net

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What a $3 Million Add to National Fuel Gas Stock Signals to Long-Term Investors

Feb -06

Source: fool.com

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Strs Ohio Decreases Stake in National Fuel Gas Company $NFG

Feb -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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National Fuel Gas Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Gas Production Up

Feb -02

Source:

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New Found Gold Continues to Confirm Continuity of At-Surface High-Grade Gold at Keats Zone, Queensway Gold Project

Feb -02

Source: newsfilecorp.com

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National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Jan -29

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.31%)

6. Segments

Exploration and Production

Expected Growth: 12%

National Fuel Gas Company's Exploration and Production segment growth of 12% is driven by increased natural gas prices, successful drilling programs in the Appalachian Basin, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, improved operational efficiencies, enhanced well productivity, and a favorable regulatory environment contribute to the segment's growth.

Utility

Expected Growth: 11%

National Fuel Gas Company's 11% growth is driven by increasing demand for natural gas, expansion of pipeline infrastructure, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, favorable regulatory environments, rising energy prices, and a strong balance sheet support the company's growth momentum.

Pipeline and Storage

Expected Growth: 10%

National Fuel Gas Company's Pipeline and Storage segment growth is driven by increasing natural gas demand, expansion of pipeline infrastructure, and strategic acquisitions. The company's focus on modernizing and expanding its pipeline network, coupled with growing demand for natural gas in the Northeast, supports a 10% growth rate.

Gathering

Expected Growth: 9%

National Fuel Gas Company's 9% growth is driven by increasing demand for natural gas, strategic acquisitions, and expansion of pipeline infrastructure. Additionally, favorable regulatory environments, rising energy prices, and a strong balance sheet support the company's growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Natural Gas

National Fuel Gas Company supplies natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through its pipeline network.

Electricity

The company offers electricity generation and transmission services to customers in its service area.

Pipeline Transportation

National Fuel Gas Company operates a network of pipelines to transport natural gas from production areas to market areas.

Energy Marketing

The company provides energy marketing services, including natural gas supply and risk management solutions.

Oil and Gas Exploration

National Fuel Gas Company explores, develops, and produces oil and natural gas resources.

Midstream Services

The company offers midstream services, including gathering, processing, and storage of natural gas and oil.

8. National Fuel Gas Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for National Fuel Gas Company is medium due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power. However, the cost and efficiency of these alternatives are still not competitive with natural gas, reducing the threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for National Fuel Gas Company is low due to the lack of alternative suppliers and the company's strong distribution network.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for National Fuel Gas Company is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers and the company's dependence on them for raw materials.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for National Fuel Gas Company is low due to the high barriers to entry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for National Fuel Gas Company is high due to the presence of several established players in the industry, leading to intense competition for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 47.41%
Debt Cost 6.64%
Equity Weight 52.59%
Equity Cost 7.16%
WACC 6.91%
Leverage 90.17%

11. Quality Control: National Fuel Gas Company passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
International Seaways

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
National Fuel Gas

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Plains GP Holdings

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Alliance Resource Partners

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Chord Energy

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 8.1

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Arch Resources

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 2.4

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

89.03$

Current Price

89.03$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows