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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company.It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility.The Exploration and Production segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil in California and in the Appalachian region of the United States.


As of September 30, 2021, it had proved developed and undeveloped reserves of 21,537 thousand barrels of oil and 3,723,433 million cubic feet of natural gas.The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation and storage services through an integrated gas pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York; and owns and operates underground natural gas storage fields.This segment also transports natural gas for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, as well as for other utilities, industrial companies, and power producers in New York State; and owns and operates the Empire Pipeline.


The Gathering segment builds, owns, and operates natural gas processing and pipeline gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca Resources Company, LLC.The Utility segment sells natural gas or provides natural gas transportation services to approximately 753,000 customers in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown, New York; and Erie and Sharon, Pennsylvania.The company markets gas to industrial, wholesale, commercial, public authority, and residential customers primarily in western and central New York, and northwestern Pennsylvania.


As of September 30, 2021, the company also owned approximately 95,000 acres of timber property; and managed approximately 2,500 additional acres of timber cutting rights.National Fuel Gas Company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.

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1.b. Last Insights on NFG

National Fuel Gas Company's recent performance was driven by a strong Q3 earnings beat, with earnings per share of $1.64 surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.5. The company's unregulated business divisions, including its Seneca natural gas production, contributed to higher profits. Additionally, National Fuel's unique vertical integration across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations sets it apart in the energy sector. The company's 55th consecutive year of dividend increases, with a 3.9% hike in June, also supports its strong recent performance.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. National Fuel Gas Company's Fiscal 2025 Earnings: A Strong Year of Growth and Efficiency

National Fuel Gas Company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.22 for the fourth quarter, a 58% increase, and $7.10 for fiscal 2025, a 38% rise. The company's integrated Upstream and Gathering businesses achieved a 20% production growth while reducing capital spending by 15% since mid-2023. Revenue growth was driven by the strong production performance, with the company's regulated operations also making progress. The fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share beat analyst estimates, which were at $1.08.

Publication Date: Nov -09

📋 Highlights
  • Adjusted EPS Growth:: Fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share rose 38%, with Q4 climbing 58% to $1.22.
  • Production Efficiency:: Upstream and Gathering operations grew production 20% while cutting capital spending 15% since mid-2023.
  • Inventory Expansion:: Added 220 prospective well locations in Upper Utica, doubling EDA inventory.
  • Regulated Project Revenue:: Shipping Port lateral project to generate $15M annual revenue; Tioga Pathway on schedule.
  • 2026 Guidance:: Adjusted EPS forecast at $7.60–$8.10/share (14% growth at midpoint) with $300–$350M free cash flow.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was a key driver of its financial results, with the addition of 220 prospective well locations in the Upper Utica formation, nearly doubling its inventory in the EDA. The Tioga Pathway project is on schedule, and the Shipping Port lateral project is expected to generate $15 million in annual revenue. The company also acquired CenterPoint's Ohio Gas LDC, which will double its utility rate base.

Guidance and Outlook

For fiscal 2026, National Fuel Gas Company expects adjusted earnings to be $7.60-$8.10 per share, representing a 14% growth at the midpoint. The company expects to generate $300-$350 million in free cash flow and has hedged 65% of its fiscal 2026 position. Capital expenditures are expected to increase 10% from fiscal 2025, driven by growth-related spending.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 29.44 and an EV/EBITDA of 10.76, the company's valuation multiples suggest a premium for its growth prospects. The ROE of 8.59% and ROIC of 4.24% indicate a strong return on equity and invested capital. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 2.95 suggests a manageable debt burden. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 15.2%, which is consistent with the company's guidance.

Strategic Developments

The company has made significant progress on its strategic initiatives, including the execution of a precedent agreement for new firm transportation and the amendment with a third-party shipper to gather production from two additional pads. The company's sustainability efforts have also yielded positive results, with NFG Midstream improving its Equitable Origin rating from A- to A.

Financing and Debt

The company expects to issue $300 million to $400 million in equity to finance the CenterPoint deal, with pro forma financial statements required for the offerings. National Fuel Gas Company finances at the parent company level, considering the total debt and cash flows of the entire system, and will issue intercompany promissory notes to allocate debt amongst segments.

3. NewsRoom

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National Fuel Gas Company $NFG Shares Sold by Capital Fund Management S.A.

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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New Found Gold Confirms High-Grade Gold Mineralization Over Broad Widths from Keats Zone Initial Grade Control Drilling, Queensway Gold Project: 219 g/t Au over 9.35 m from 19.00 m and 160 g/t Au over 10.30 m from 15.80 m

Dec -01

Source: newsfilecorp.com

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New Found Gold Engages Project Finance Advisor for the Queensway Gold Project

Nov -28

Source: newsfilecorp.com

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Creative Planning Grows Stock Position in National Fuel Gas Company $NFG

Nov -24

Source: defenseworld.net

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New Found Gold Announces Infill and Expansion Drilling at the K2 Zone, Queensway Gold Project

Nov -19

Source: newsfilecorp.com

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Allworth Financial LP Boosts Position in National Fuel Gas Company $NFG

Nov -17

Source: defenseworld.net

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New Found Gold Files Third Quarter 2025 Financial Statements; Grants Stock Options and Restricted Share Units

Nov -07

Source: newsfilecorp.com

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National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.31%)

6. Segments

Exploration and Production

Expected Growth: 12%

National Fuel Gas Company's Exploration and Production segment growth of 12% is driven by increased natural gas prices, successful drilling programs in the Appalachian Basin, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, improved operational efficiencies, enhanced well productivity, and a favorable regulatory environment contribute to the segment's growth.

Utility

Expected Growth: 11%

National Fuel Gas Company's 11% growth is driven by increasing demand for natural gas, expansion of pipeline infrastructure, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, favorable regulatory environments, rising energy prices, and a strong balance sheet support the company's growth momentum.

Pipeline and Storage

Expected Growth: 10%

National Fuel Gas Company's Pipeline and Storage segment growth is driven by increasing natural gas demand, expansion of pipeline infrastructure, and strategic acquisitions. The company's focus on modernizing and expanding its pipeline network, coupled with growing demand for natural gas in the Northeast, supports a 10% growth rate.

Gathering

Expected Growth: 9%

National Fuel Gas Company's 9% growth is driven by increasing demand for natural gas, strategic acquisitions, and expansion of pipeline infrastructure. Additionally, favorable regulatory environments, rising energy prices, and a strong balance sheet support the company's growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Natural Gas

National Fuel Gas Company supplies natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through its pipeline network.

Electricity

The company offers electricity generation and transmission services to customers in its service area.

Pipeline Transportation

National Fuel Gas Company operates a network of pipelines to transport natural gas from production areas to market areas.

Energy Marketing

The company provides energy marketing services, including natural gas supply and risk management solutions.

Oil and Gas Exploration

National Fuel Gas Company explores, develops, and produces oil and natural gas resources.

Midstream Services

The company offers midstream services, including gathering, processing, and storage of natural gas and oil.

8. National Fuel Gas Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for National Fuel Gas Company is medium due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power. However, the cost and efficiency of these alternatives are still not competitive with natural gas, reducing the threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for National Fuel Gas Company is low due to the lack of alternative suppliers and the company's strong distribution network.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for National Fuel Gas Company is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers and the company's dependence on them for raw materials.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for National Fuel Gas Company is low due to the high barriers to entry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for National Fuel Gas Company is high due to the presence of several established players in the industry, leading to intense competition for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 47.41%
Debt Cost 6.64%
Equity Weight 52.59%
Equity Cost 7.16%
WACC 6.91%
Leverage 90.17%

11. Quality Control: National Fuel Gas Company passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Alliance Resource Partners

A-Score: 7.4/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 8.7

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International Seaways

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 5.7

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Plains GP Holdings

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 9.3

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Chord Energy

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 8.1

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 6.0

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National Fuel Gas

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Arch Resources

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

82.09$

Current Price

82.09$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows