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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Chord Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company.It acquires, exploits, develops, and explores for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin.The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on CHRD

Chord Energy Corporation's recent performance was driven by operational excellence, delivering net cash provided by operating activities and Adjusted Free Cash Flow above expectations, driven by efficient execution and strong asset performance. The company's impressive earnings surprise history and current combination of key ingredients suggest a likely beat in its next quarterly report. Additionally, Chord Energy's 4-mile lateral drilling program is driving industry-leading capital efficiency and expanding its inventory of economically viable acreage.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Chord Energy's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Chord Energy reported a robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with adjusted free cash flow of approximately $230 million, exceeding expectations. The company's EPS came in at $2.35, beating estimates of $2.24. The strong performance was driven by higher production, lower operating expenses, and improved capital efficiency. The company's revenue growth was robust, driven by its operational performance and favorable market conditions. With a P/E Ratio of 29.28 and an EV/EBITDA of 3.28, the market seems to be pricing in a certain level of growth and profitability.

Publication Date: Nov -08

📋 Highlights
  • Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns: Adjusted free cash flow of $230M, with 69% returned to shareholders in Q3 2025.
  • Oil Volume Guidance Increase: Raised volume guidance for the second time in 2025 due to faster cycle times, lower downtime, and strong well performance.
  • 4-Mile Wells Performance: Expect 7 4-mile wells turned in line by year-end, with 90–100% higher EUR vs. 2-mile wells and up to 40% of 2026 operated wells planned to be 4-mile.
  • Capital Efficiency and Cost Savings: $120M free cash flow improvement in 2025; $30–50M/year savings from marketing/midstream optimizations and alternate shape wells executed under budget.
  • XTO Acquisition Impact: Added 4,000 BOEPD and $15M capital for 2026 maintenance; 2026 CapEx estimated at $1.4B, $100M below 2024 preliminary expectations.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was impressive, with oil volumes guided upwards for the second time this year, driven by faster cycle times, lower downtime, and strong well performance. The 4-mile program has seen significant progress, with 7 wells expected to be turned in line by year-end, and the company is likely to lean into this program in 2026 and beyond. As CEO Daniel Brown mentioned, the company is expecting a 90% to 100% EUR uplift relative to 2-mile wells, with some degradation assumed in the fourth mile.

Capital Efficiency and Cost Savings

Chord Energy has made significant progress in improving its capital efficiency, with the execution of alternate shape wells trending below initial estimates. The company expects to see the benefits of these wells in the later part of 2026 and into 2027, leading to lower decline rates and improved capital efficiency. Additionally, the company has driven $120 million of improvement in free cash flow generation across the organization in 2025, with a focus on higher production, lower LOE, and improved marketing costs.

Guidance and Outlook

The company has provided guidance on its production and capital spending for 2026, expecting to maintain oil volumes of approximately 157,000 to 161,000 barrels per day, with E&P capital flat in '26 versus 2025. The company's preliminary expectation for 2026 is to deliver affordable and reliable energy in a sustainable and responsible manner, with a focus on optimizing costs and improving operations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -2.3%, but the company's strong operational performance and cost savings initiatives are expected to drive long-term value creation for shareholders.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

With a Dividend Yield of 6.11% and a Free Cash Flow Yield of 23.9%, Chord Energy's valuation metrics suggest that the company is attractively priced. The P/B Ratio of 0.62 and ROE of 2.04% also indicate that the company is undervalued relative to its book value. As the company continues to focus on optimizing costs and improving operations, it is well-positioned to deliver long-term value to shareholders.

3. NewsRoom

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Boston Partners Sells 321,605 Shares of Chord Energy Corporation $CHRD

Nov -27

Source: defenseworld.net

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Rep. Lisa C. McClain Sells Off Shares of Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHRD)

Nov -27

Source: defenseworld.net

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Creative Planning Has $2.05 Million Holdings in Chord Energy Corporation $CHRD

Nov -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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Advisors Asset Management Inc. Raises Holdings in Chord Energy Corporation $CHRD

Nov -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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Market Today: Nvidia (NVDA) crushes Q3; WBD bid heats up

Nov -19

Source: gurufocus.com

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First Look: Nvidia Earnings Loom, Retail and AI Moves Drive Headlines

Nov -19

Source: gurufocus.com

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Chord Energy Stock Rises Marginally Since Q3 Earnings Beat

Nov -13

Source: zacks.com

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Chord Energy Corporation $CHRD Shares Bought by AE Wealth Management LLC

Nov -12

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.62%)

6. Segments

Crude Oil

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Chord Energy Corporation's 3.5% growth in crude oil is driven by increasing production volumes from its STACK play assets, improved well productivity, and a favorable crude oil price environment. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction initiatives have contributed to the growth.

Purchased Crude Oil

Expected Growth: 3.8%

The 3.8% growth in purchased crude oil from Chord Energy Corporation is driven by increasing global energy demand, improved drilling efficiencies, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, favorable crude oil prices, enhanced oil recovery techniques, and growing production from existing wells also contribute to this growth.

Natural Gas Liquid and Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Chord Energy Corporation's 4.2% growth in Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) and Natural Gas is driven by increased production from its STACK and SCOOP assets, improved well productivity, and higher realized prices. Additionally, the company's strategic acreage acquisitions and efficient operations have contributed to the growth.

Purchased Natural Gas Liquid and Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 4.5%

The 4.5% growth in Purchased Natural Gas Liquid and Natural Gas from Chord Energy Corporation is driven by increasing demand for clean energy, strategic acquisitions, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, favorable government regulations, improved operational efficiency, and strong supply chain management also contribute to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Chord Energy Corporation is a leading independent oil and natural gas company that explores, develops, and produces crude oil from its assets in the United States.

Natural Gas

The company produces natural gas from its assets in the United States, which is used as a clean-burning fuel for power generation, industrial processes, and heating.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Chord Energy Corporation produces NGLs, which are used as a feedstock for the production of plastics, fertilizers, and other petrochemicals.

Oil and Gas Exploration Services

The company provides oil and gas exploration services, including seismic data acquisition and processing, drilling, and well completion services.

8. Chord Energy Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Chord Energy Corporation operates in the oil and gas industry, which has few substitutes. However, the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles poses a moderate threat to the company.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Chord Energy Corporation's customers are primarily large industrial and commercial entities, which have limited bargaining power due to their dependence on the company's oil and gas products.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Chord Energy Corporation relies on a diverse range of suppliers for its operations, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers. However, the company's dependence on a few critical suppliers for specialized equipment and services increases their bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The oil and gas industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements, complex regulatory frameworks, and the need for specialized expertise. These barriers limit the threat of new entrants to Chord Energy Corporation.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The oil and gas industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Chord Energy Corporation faces intense rivalry from its peers, which can lead to downward pressure on prices and profit margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 7.47%
Debt Cost 8.57%
Equity Weight 92.53%
Equity Cost 8.57%
WACC 8.57%
Leverage 8.08%

11. Quality Control: Chord Energy Corporation passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Coterra Energy

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 7.7

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Chord Energy

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 8.1

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 6.0

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Black Stone Minerals

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 9.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 9.3

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Civitas Resources

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 9.3

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

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Kimbell Royalty Partners

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 2.7

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.7

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Ovintiv

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

97.65$

Current Price

97.65$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows