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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Nextracker Inc., an energy solutions company, provides solar tracker solutions for PV projects.The company offers solar trackers, such as Bifacial PV modules for large-scale solar; NX Horizon for solar power plants; NX Gemini two-in-portrait solar tracker that optimizes lifetime value and performance of power plants for project developers and asset owners; and NX Horizon — XTR, an all-terrain solar tracker.It also provides TrueCapture, an intelligent and self-adjusting tracker control system for PV power plants; and NX Navigator, an operational control and risk mitigation software.


The company was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Fremont, California.Nextracker Inc.operates as a subsidiary of Flex Ltd.

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1.b. Last Insights on NXT

Breaking News: Nextracker Inc has not released recent earnings, however Nextpower Inc, its parent company, recently reported a decline in short interest. As of January 30th, short interest totaled 6,415,959 shares, down 13.5% from January 15th. The days-to-cover ratio is not provided. No recent earnings release or recommendations from analysts are available for Nextracker Inc. A recent news reported that Nextpower Inc. short interest was down .

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Nextpower Shines with Strong Q3 Earnings

Nextpower delivered a robust Q3 with revenue surging 34% year-over-year to $909 million, accompanied by an adjusted EBITDA increase of 15% to $214 million. The company's actual EPS came in at $1.1, beating estimates of $0.93. The strong financial performance was driven by significant customer bookings, resulting in a record-high backlog. Revenue in the U.S. jumped 63% year-over-year, with non-tracker revenue contributing to the growth. As Charles Boynton noted, "Q3 was incredibly strong, with customers wanting more product earlier," highlighting the company's ability to meet customer demand.

Publication Date: Feb -09

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue & EBITDA Growth:: Q3 revenue surged 34% YoY to $909M; adjusted EBITDA rose 15% to $214M.
  • Saudi JV Expansion:: Launched Nextpower Arabia, a 50-50 joint venture, to deliver 2.25 GW of solar tracking systems to a utility-scale project.
  • Strong U.S. Market Performance:: U.S. revenue jumped 63% YoY, driven by robust customer bookings and non-tracker product growth.
  • Balance Sheet Strength:: $953M cash on hand, zero debt, and a $500M share repurchase program authorized for three years.
  • Tariff Impact & Margin Resilience:: $44M tariff-related margin hit in Q3, but diversified supply chain and non-tracker margins (at corporate average) offset pressure.

Operational Highlights and Backlog

The company's backlog has grown significantly, driven by strong customer bookings and an increasing attach rate for bundled products like TrueCapture, eBOS, Earth Truss, and robotics. The U.S. business saw a notable increase in non-tracker revenue, contributing to the overall growth. The company's diversified and localized supply chain has helped manage tariff-related impacts, although tariffs had a $44 million impact on margins in Q3.

Guidance and Outlook

Nextpower expects solid growth for the next year, driven by customer adoption of its technology platform, including tracker and non-tracker solutions. The company raised its guidance for the fiscal year, with revenue expected to be between $3.425 billion and $3.5 billion, and adjusted EBITDA between $810 million and $830 million. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 11.8%, indicating a positive outlook.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 30.42, P/B Ratio of 8.37, and EV/EBITDA of 22.06, the company's valuation appears to be relatively high. However, the ROIC of 21.44% and ROE of 31.28% suggest strong profitability. The company's strong backlog and growth prospects may justify the premium valuation.

Saudi JV and Future Expectations

The recently formed Nextpower Arabia joint venture with Abunayyan Holding is expected to drive growth in the region. The 2.25-gigawatt project is already being delivered, and the JV's margins are expected to be high-ROIC and capital-light. Dan Shugar mentioned "very strong double-digit gigawatt growth happening in the region," highlighting the potential for future growth.

Conclusion on Financial Health

The company's balance sheet remains strong, with $953 million in cash and no debt. A share repurchase program of up to $500 million over three years was authorized, indicating the company's confidence in its financial health and future prospects.

3. NewsRoom

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Nextpower (NASDAQ:NXT) & Quantum Solar Power (OTCMKTS:QSPW) Critical Review

Feb -20

Source: defenseworld.net

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Nextpower Inc. (NASDAQ:NXT) Short Interest Down 13.5% in January

Feb -19

Source: defenseworld.net

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Nextpower Enters Multi-Year Gigawatt-Scale Steel Frame Supply Agreement with Jinko Solar (U.S.) Industries Inc. for Advanced Solar Modules

Feb -17

Source: businesswire.com

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The NXT Stock Discount Play: How To Buy The $121 Stock For $75

Feb -09

Source: forbes.com

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Nextpower: Still See Upside At This Valuation

Feb -03

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Nextpower: Strong Growth And Cash, Wait For A Correction

Jan -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Belpointe Asset Management LLC Makes New Investment in Nextpower Inc. $NXT

Jan -30

Source: defenseworld.net

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Nextpower Shares Rise 6.6% After Key Trading Signal

Jan -29

Source: benzinga.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (15.80%)

6. Segments

Scientific & Technical Instruments

Expected Growth: 18.0%

The solar energy industry is expected to experience significant growth, driven by declining costs and increasing demand for renewable energy. As a leading provider of solar trackers, the Scientific & Technical Instruments segment is poised to benefit from this trend. The expected growth rate is higher than the global average, reflecting the segment's strong market position and the growing demand for solar energy solutions. The increasing adoption of solar energy globally will drive the growth of this segment.

7. Detailed Products

NX Horizon

A smart solar tracker that optimizes energy production and reduces costs.

NX Gemini

A bifacial solar tracker that captures energy from both sides of the panel.

NX Gemini XL

A larger version of the NX Gemini, designed for larger solar panels.

NX Fusion

A software platform that integrates with Nextracker's hardware to optimize energy production and reduce costs.

NX Navigator

A data analytics platform that provides real-time monitoring and insights for solar farms.

8. Nextracker Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Nextracker Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes, as there are alternative solar tracking systems available in the market, but they are not as efficient and cost-effective as Nextracker's systems.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Nextracker Inc. has a diverse customer base, and no single customer has significant bargaining power, reducing the threat of customer bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Nextracker Inc. relies on a few key suppliers for critical components, giving them some bargaining power, but the company's large scale of operations and diversified supply chain mitigate this threat.

Threat Of New Entrants

The solar tracking system industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and technological expertise, making it difficult for new entrants to compete with Nextracker Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The solar tracking system industry is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 12.67%
Debt Cost 11.76%
Equity Weight 87.33%
Equity Cost 13.76%
WACC 13.51%
Leverage 14.51%

11. Quality Control: Nextracker Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Weatherford

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
CNX Resources

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Nextracker

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Cactus

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Sunrun

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Enphase Energy

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 3.7

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

119.34$

Current Price

119.34$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows