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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Sunrun Inc.engages in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the United States.It also sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers.


In addition, the company offers battery storage along with solar energy systems.Its primary customers are residential homeowners.The company markets and sells its products through direct-to-consumer approach across online, retail, mass media, digital media, canvassing, field marketing, and referral channels, as well as its partner network.


Sunrun Inc.was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on RUN

Breaking News: Sunrun Inc recently saw one of its investors, Dallas-based Canyon Capital Advisors, sell 300,000 shares in the third quarter. The sale resulted in a reduction of the position's value by approximately $13 million. This move comes as the company continues to operate in the renewable energy sector. There is no recent earnings release to comment on. Analysts from various firms have given recommendations, with some suggesting a buy, while others advise to hold or sell, these recommendations are from firms like Morgan Stanley, RBC and Wedbush.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Sunrun's Q3 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Sunrun reported a robust financial performance in Q3, with an actual EPS of $0.06 beating estimates of $0.01. Aggregate subscriber value rose 10% year-over-year to $1.6 billion, while contracted net value creation jumped 35% to $279 million, or $1.21 per share. The company's cash generation was $108 million, exceeding the high end of its guidance range. Revenue growth is estimated to be around 7.8% next year, indicating a positive outlook.

Publication Date: Nov -10

📋 Highlights
  • Cash Generation:: $108 million in Q3, exceeding guidance; $224 million over trailing four quarters.
  • Subscriber Value Metrics:: Upfront net subscriber value of $3,500 (5-point margin improvement YoY) and 7% margin on contracted value.
  • Dispatchable Energy Capacity:: 3.7 gigawatt-hours from home batteries and 8.2 gigawatts of solar generation capacity.
  • 2025 Guidance:: $6.5–7.0 billion aggregate contracted subscriber value, $1–1.3 billion contracted net value creation, and $250–450 million cash generation.
  • Dispatchable Energy Target:: 10 gigawatt-hours online by 2028 (accelerated by one year), creating monetization opportunities for cash flow/EBITDA growth.

Operational Highlights

Sunrun's strategic focus on energy independence is yielding strong results, with 3.7 gigawatt hours of dispatchable energy from its fleet of home batteries and over 8.2 gigawatts of solar generation capacity. The company expects to have more than 10 gigawatt hours of dispatchable energy online by the end of 2028, creating additional monetization opportunities. As Mary Powell, Sunrun's CEO, mentioned, "We're generating cash while growing our customer base," highlighting the company's ability to balance growth with financial discipline.

Cash Generation and Capital Allocation

Sunrun generated $108 million in cash in Q3 and $224 million over the trailing 4 quarters. The company expects to continue using similar capital structures in the near term but plans to diversify over time, which will result in an increase in revenue and a decrease in capitalized expenses. Sunrun is focused on executing its near-term objectives, including debt paydown and building up trailing cash generation.

Valuation and Outlook

Sunrun's valuation metrics indicate a relatively attractive price. The stock trades at a P/S Ratio of 1.71, and an EV/EBITDA of -6.19. With a strong growth outlook and improving financial performance, Sunrun is well-positioned to gain significant share in 2026. Analysts expect revenue growth of 7.8% next year, and the company's focus on subscription offerings and storage-first strategy is expected to drive long-term value creation.

Guidance and Future Expectations

Sunrun reiterated its guidance for 2025, expecting aggregate contracted subscriber value of between $6.5 billion and $7.0 billion and contracted net value creation to be in a range of $1 billion to $1.3 billion. The company expects cash generation to be between $250 million to $450 million. With a strong market position and a disciplined approach to customer experience and margins, Sunrun is poised for continued growth and financial success.

3. NewsRoom

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Sunrun Stock Has Surged 61% in a Year — So Why Did One Investor Sell 300,000 Shares?

Dec -02

Source: fool.com

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Critical Contrast: TOYO (NASDAQ:TOYO) versus Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN)

Nov -15

Source: defenseworld.net

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Greenvale Trims $3.9 Million of Sunrun but Keeps the Stock as Its Largest—and Brightest—Bet on U.S. Solar

Nov -14

Source: fool.com

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Sunrun Earns Multiple No. 1 Rankings in Extel's All-America Executive Team Survey

Nov -13

Source: globenewswire.com

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Wall Street is Pounding the Table Over NVDA, RUN, LLY

Nov -10

Source: 247wallst.com

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Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Sunrun (RUN) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates

Nov -07

Source: zacks.com

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Sunrun Stock Drops After Mixed Q3 Earnings Report

Nov -06

Source: benzinga.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.01%)

6. Segments

Customer Agreements and Incentives

Expected Growth: 10%

Sunrun Inc.'s Customer Agreements and Incentives segment growth is driven by increasing adoption of solar energy, favorable government policies and incentives, rising electricity rates, and growing demand for clean energy solutions. Additionally, the company's expanding partnerships with major retailers and its innovative financing options also contribute to the segment's growth.

Solar Energy Systems

Expected Growth: 11%

Sunrun Inc.'s 11% growth in Solar Energy Systems is driven by increasing adoption of renewable energy, declining solar panel costs, and favorable government policies. Additionally, rising electricity rates, growing environmental concerns, and expanding product offerings contribute to the growth. Furthermore, Sunrun's innovative business model, which combines solar energy with energy storage, enhances customer value and drives sales.

Products

Expected Growth: 9%

Sunrun Inc.'s 9% growth is driven by increasing adoption of renewable energy, declining solar panel costs, and favorable government policies. Additionally, the company's expanding customer base, strategic partnerships, and innovative products such as Brightbox and Sunrun BrightSave have contributed to its growth.

Incentives

Expected Growth: 8%

Sunrun Inc.'s 8% growth is driven by increasing adoption of renewable energy, government incentives for solar installations, and rising electricity costs. Additionally, the company's expanding customer base, strategic partnerships, and innovative products such as Brightbox and Sunrun BrightSave also contribute to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Solar Energy Systems

Sunrun provides solar energy systems that convert sunlight into electricity, allowing homeowners to generate their own clean energy and reduce their reliance on the grid.

Battery Storage Systems

Sunrun's battery storage systems, such as the Brightbox, store excess energy generated by solar panels during the day for use during the night or during power outages.

Smart Inverters

Sunrun's smart inverters convert DC power from solar panels to AC power for homes, while also providing real-time monitoring and control of energy production and consumption.

Energy Efficiency Services

Sunrun offers energy efficiency services, such as energy audits and retrofits, to help homeowners reduce their energy consumption and optimize their energy usage.

Electric Vehicle Charging Solutions

Sunrun offers electric vehicle charging solutions that allow homeowners to charge their electric vehicles using clean energy generated by their solar panels.

8. Sunrun Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Sunrun Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes as customers have limited alternatives for solar energy solutions. However, the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources and energy storage systems may pose a threat to Sunrun's business.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Sunrun Inc. has a large customer base, and individual customers have limited bargaining power. However, the company's reliance on partnerships with large retailers and utilities may give them some bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Sunrun Inc. relies on a few large suppliers for solar panels and other equipment. While the company has some bargaining power due to its scale, suppliers may still exert some pressure on prices and delivery terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The solar energy industry is highly competitive, and new entrants may pose a significant threat to Sunrun Inc.'s market share. The company's established brand and partnerships may help mitigate this threat, but new entrants could still disrupt the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The solar energy industry is highly competitive, with many established players and new entrants vying for market share. Sunrun Inc. faces intense rivalry from companies like Tesla, Vivint Solar, and SunPower, which may lead to pricing pressure and increased marketing expenses.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 67.95%
Debt Cost 5.92%
Equity Weight 32.05%
Equity Cost 16.39%
WACC 9.27%
Leverage 211.98%

11. Quality Control: Sunrun Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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EQT

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 6.0

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Nextracker

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 2.2

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 2.0

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Shoals Technologies

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 1.2

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 1.0

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Array Technologies

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 1.0

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Sunrun

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Enphase Energy

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 3.7

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

17.44$

Current Price

17.44$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows