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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States.It operates through two segments, Gas Distribution Operations and Electric Operations.The company distributes natural gas to approximately 853,000 customers in northern Indiana, as well as approximately 2.4 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland.


It operates approximately 54,600 miles of distribution main pipelines, as well as associated individual customer service lines; and 1,000 miles of transmission main pipelines.The company generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 483,000 customers in 20 counties in the northern part of Indiana, as well as engages in wholesale electric and transmission transactions.It owns and operates coal-fired electric generating stations with a capacity of 722 megawatts (MW) in Wheatfield and 455 MW in Michigan City; combined cycle gas turbine with a capacity of 563 MW in West Terre Haute; natural gas generating units with a capacity of 155 MW in Wheatfield; hydro generating plants with a capacity of 9 MW in Carroll County and 7 MW in White County; and wind generating units with a capacity of 102 MW and 302 MW in White County, Indiana.


The company was formerly known as NIPSCO Industries, Inc.and changed its name to NiSource Inc.in April 1999.


NiSource Inc.was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Merrillville, Indiana.

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1.b. Last Insights on NI

NiSource's recent performance is driven by strong earnings momentum, boosted by increased investments, new rates, and flat operation and maintenance expenses. The company's Q2 2025 earnings beat estimates, with adjusted EPS of $0.22, exceeding analyst expectations. NiSource's growth strategy focuses on clean energy investments, strong regulated assets, and rising dividends. The company received Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission's approval for its GenCo strategy, a significant milestone. With a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and steady growth prospects, NiSource's fundamentals remain intact, despite regulatory risks. Its quarterly dividend payment of $0.28 per share also supports shareholder value.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. NiSource's Strong 2025 Performance and Ambitious Growth Plans

NiSource's fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS was $0.51, beating estimates of $0.49, contributing to a full-year adjusted EPS of $1.90, surpassing the guidance range. The company's financial performance was driven by strong financial management, better-than-expected financing costs, and sound cost management. The FFO to debt ratio was 16.1% in 2025, exceeding its targeted guidance range. With a 'P/E Ratio' of 23.59 and a 'ROE (%)' of 10.45, the market seems to have factored in NiSource's stable utility operations and growth prospects.

Publication Date: Feb -15

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Full-Year Adjusted EPS:: $1.90, exceeding guidance and driven by Q4 performance of $0.51.
  • Amazon Agreement Value:: $1 billion in customer savings for Indiana over 15 years.
  • Capital Plan:: $28 billion over five years, including $21 billion for base utilities and $6–$7 billion for the Amazon project.
  • 2026 EPS Guidance:: $2.02–$2.07, reflecting ~8% YoY growth aligned with earnings trajectory.
  • Dividend Growth:: 7.1% increase in 2026, matching earnings growth commitment.

Regulatory Outcomes and Capital Plan

The company secured important regulatory outcomes, including approval of its Pennsylvania rate case and progress across tracker platforms. NiSource's $28 billion capital plan over the next five years prioritizes safety, reliability, and customer affordability, with a focus on modernizing infrastructure and supporting economic growth. The plan includes $21 billion of base utility investment and $6 to $7 billion for the Amazon project at Genco.

Genco and Growth Opportunities

Genco remains poised to deliver incremental value beginning in 2026, with guidance of 1 to 2¢ per share. The company is in strategic negotiations with one to three gigawatts of potential customers and is investing in long lead-time equipment to ensure speed to market. Management believes future transactions will be faster and more efficient than the Amazon deal, with the next Genco deal not dependent on the IURC approval of the Amazon transaction.

Regulatory Developments and Future Prospects

Senate Bill 13 in Ohio could provide opportunities for large load customers, but no upside from economic development or procurement of large load customers is reflected in the Columbia Gas Ohio forecast yet. House Bill 102 in Indiana is supportive of the company's goals, with four main components: multiyear rate plans, performance-based components, mandatory budget billing, and a low-income plan. The company's 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS guidance is $2.02 to $2.07, representing approximately 8% year-over-year growth, with analysts estimating next year's revenue growth at 5.7%.

Segment Reporting and Disclosure

The company will break out Genco as its own segment in 2026 reporting, providing incremental disclosure around that time. This increased transparency will likely provide investors with a clearer understanding of Genco's contribution to NiSource's overall performance.

3. NewsRoom

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7-9% Yields: 2 Of The Best Monthly Dividend Machines Pumping Cash

Feb -18

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Inspiring Curiosity, Energizing the Future: NiSource Charitable Foundation Hosts Annual ‘Introduce a Girl to STEAM' Event Across Five States

Feb -16

Source: businesswire.com

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Envestnet Asset Management Inc. Decreases Stock Position in NiSource, Inc $NI

Feb -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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Drake & Associates LLC Makes New $2.41 Million Investment in NiSource, Inc $NI

Feb -12

Source: defenseworld.net

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NiSource Inc (NI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EPS Growth and Ambitious Investment Plans

Feb -11

Source: gurufocus.com

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NiSource Inc. (NI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -11

Source: seekingalpha.com

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NiSource Q4 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y

Feb -11

Source: zacks.com

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Jefferies Loves 5 Dividend-Paying Utility Stocks but Warns of Caution on the Sector

Feb -11

Source: 247wallst.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.73%)

6. Segments

Gas Distribution

Expected Growth: 6.5%

NiSource Inc.'s Gas Distribution segment growth of 6.5% is driven by increasing demand for natural gas, infrastructure investments, and rate base growth. Additionally, favorable weather conditions, customer additions, and cost savings initiatives contribute to the segment's growth.

Electric

Expected Growth: 7.2%

NiSource Inc.'s 7.2% growth in Electric segment is driven by increasing demand for clean energy, investments in grid modernization, and favorable regulatory policies. Additionally, the company's focus on renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, contributes to the growth. Furthermore, NiSource's efforts to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs also support the segment's expansion.

Corporate and Other

Expected Growth: 6.8%

NiSource Inc.'s Corporate and Other segment growth of 6.8% is driven by increased investments in infrastructure, cost savings initiatives, and favorable regulatory outcomes. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency and effective cost management have contributed to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Natural Gas Distribution

NiSource Inc. provides natural gas distribution services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through its subsidiaries.

Electricity Generation

NiSource Inc. generates electricity through its power plants, providing wholesale electricity to the market.

Transmission and Storage

NiSource Inc. owns and operates natural gas transmission and storage facilities, providing transportation and storage services to customers.

Midstream Services

NiSource Inc. provides midstream services, including gathering, processing, and transporting natural gas and natural gas liquids.

Electricity Transmission

NiSource Inc. owns and operates electricity transmission lines, providing transmission services to customers.

8. NiSource Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

NiSource Inc. operates in a highly regulated industry, which limits the threat of substitutes. However, the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources and energy-efficient technologies poses a moderate threat to the company's traditional business model.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

NiSource Inc. serves a large customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's diversified customer mix and long-term contracts further mitigate the bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

NiSource Inc. relies on a few large suppliers for its natural gas and energy infrastructure needs. While the company has some bargaining power due to its scale, suppliers may still exert some pressure on prices and terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The energy industry is highly regulated, and significant barriers to entry exist, including high capital requirements and complex infrastructure needs. This limits the threat of new entrants to NiSource Inc.'s business.

Intensity Of Rivalry

NiSource Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, with several large players vying for market share. The company faces intense competition in terms of pricing, customer service, and innovation, which may impact its market position and profitability.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 63.08%
Debt Cost 4.28%
Equity Weight 36.92%
Equity Cost 6.34%
WACC 5.04%
Leverage 170.84%

11. Quality Control: NiSource Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
ONE Gas

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Atmos Energy

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
New Jersey Resources

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
NiSource

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Southwest Gas Holdings

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
New Fortress Energy

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

46.37$

Current Price

46.37$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows