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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

ONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States.The company operates through three divisions: Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service, and Texas Gas Service.It provides natural gas distribution services to 2.2 million customers in three states.


It serves residential, commercial, and transportation customers.As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 41,600 miles of distribution mains; and 2,400 miles of transmission pipelines, as well as had 51.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage capacity.ONE Gas, Inc.


was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

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1.b. Last Insights on OGS

ONE Gas, Inc.'s recent performance is driven by strong earnings growth, with Q2 net income jumping 18% and EPS meeting estimates. The company's $750 million investments in 2025 and growing customer base support steady EPS estimates and dividend growth through 2029. A Zacks upgrade to a Buy rating reflects growing optimism about earnings prospects. The company's Q3 2025 financial results will be released on November 3, 2025. Regulated operations and strategic investments make a strong case for investment. (Source: Zacks)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. ONE Gas' Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

ONE Gas reported a robust third quarter 2025, with revenues increasing due to new rates and customer growth. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.44, in line with analyst estimates. The revenue growth was driven by a combination of factors, including the implementation of new rates, which contributed approximately $19.2 million to the top line, and continued customer growth, which added $1.4 million. The company's net income for the quarter was not explicitly stated, but the EPS figure suggests a stable performance.

Publication Date: Nov -09

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Earnings Guidance Tightened: to $4.34–$4.40 EPS, reflecting $262–266M net income.
  • $750M Capital Expenditures: planned for 2025, with Q3 revenue up $19.2M from new rates.
  • Austin System Reinforcement: increased winter peak capacity by 25%, indexed to Waha hub prices.
  • Operational Efficiency Gains: reduced excavation damages by 13% YoY despite 8% higher ticket volumes.
  • Texas House Bill 4384: expected to add $4–5M annual operating income for 25% of capital deployments.

Financial Guidance and Outlook

The company raised its full-year guidance, expecting EPS to be between $4.34 and $4.40, driven by strong year-to-date financial performance and the expected impact of Texas House Bill 4384. The guidance revision reflects the company's confidence in its outlook for the rest of the year. Christopher Sighinolfi noted that the tightening of the guidance range was partly due to some O&M expenses being pulled forward, primarily environmental remediation projects. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.3%, which is slightly above the company's long-term guidance range of 4% to 6%.

Operational Highlights and Initiatives

ONE Gas continues to invest in its workforce and infrastructure, with initiatives such as bringing line locating resources in-house and expanding its Watch and Protect program. Curtis Dinan mentioned that these efforts have delivered significant operational improvements, including a 13% year-over-year decrease in total excavation damages. The company is also exploring opportunities to provide service to large-scale customers, leveraging its existing system and workforce.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 19.39 and a P/B Ratio of 1.55, the company's valuation appears reasonable. The Dividend Yield stands at 3.25%, indicating a relatively attractive return for income investors. The EV/EBITDA ratio of 10.94 suggests that the company's enterprise value is reasonable relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. The ROE of 8.06% and ROIC of 4.62% indicate a decent return on equity and invested capital, respectively.

3. NewsRoom

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ONE Gas to Participate in Mizuho, Jefferies and Wells Fargo Utility Conferences

Dec -02

Source: prnewswire.com

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ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) Q4 2026 Guidance Call Transcript

Dec -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

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ONE Gas Issues 2026 Financial Guidance

Dec -01

Source: prnewswire.com

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ONE Gas Announces Retirement of Board Chair John Gibson and Election of Deborah Hersman as New Chair

Nov -18

Source: prnewswire.com

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Bank of New York Mellon Corp Has $58.55 Million Position in ONE Gas, Inc. $OGS

Nov -11

Source: defenseworld.net

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ONE Gas Announces Dual Listing on NYSE Texas

Nov -10

Source: prnewswire.com

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ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

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ONE Gas Q3 Earnings In Line With Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y

Nov -04

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.75%)

6. Segments

Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 8%

ONE Gas, Inc.'s 8% growth in Natural Gas is driven by increasing demand from industrial and power generation customers, expansion into new markets, and strategic infrastructure investments. Additionally, favorable weather patterns and rising LNG exports contribute to the growth. Furthermore, the company's focus on operational efficiency and cost savings initiatives also support the growth momentum.

Transportation

Expected Growth: 6%

ONE Gas, Inc.'s 6% growth in Transportation is driven by increasing natural gas demand, expansion of pipeline infrastructure, and rising production from shale plays. Additionally, favorable regulatory environments, growing LNG exports, and investments in pipeline modernization also contribute to this growth.

Securitization

Expected Growth: 5%

ONE Gas, Inc.'s securitization growth is driven by increasing demand for natural gas, strategic acquisitions, and infrastructure investments. Additionally, favorable regulatory environments, declining commodity prices, and a strong balance sheet enable the company to capitalize on growth opportunities, resulting in a 5% growth rate.

Miscellaneous

Expected Growth: 4%

ONE Gas, Inc.'s Miscellaneous segment growth is driven by increasing investments in infrastructure, rising demand for natural gas, and favorable regulatory environments. Additionally, the company's focus on cost savings initiatives and operational efficiencies contribute to the 4% growth rate.

Other

Expected Growth: 3%

ONE Gas, Inc.'s 'Other' segment growth is driven by increasing adoption of compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for transportation, rising demand for natural gas infrastructure, and growing investments in renewable energy projects, contributing to a 3% growth rate.

Other - Natural Gas Related

Expected Growth: 7%

ONE Gas, Inc.'s 7% growth in Other - Natural Gas Related segment is driven by increasing demand for natural gas in the Midwest and Kansas regions, coupled with strategic infrastructure investments and acquisitions. Additionally, favorable weather patterns and rising industrial activity contribute to the growth, as ONE Gas expands its customer base and optimizes its operations.

7. Detailed Products

Natural Gas Distribution

ONE Gas, Inc. provides natural gas distribution services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas.

Pipeline Transportation

The company operates an intrastate pipeline system that transports natural gas to its distribution system and to other customers.

Natural Gas Storage

ONE Gas, Inc. owns and operates natural gas storage facilities that provide storage services to its distribution system and to other customers.

Gas Gathering

The company provides gas gathering services to natural gas producers, transporting natural gas from production areas to processing facilities.

8. ONE Gas, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for ONE Gas, Inc. is low due to the lack of alternative energy sources that can replace natural gas in the short term.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for ONE Gas, Inc. is medium due to the presence of a large number of customers, but the company's ability to negotiate prices and terms.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for ONE Gas, Inc. is low due to the company's ability to negotiate prices and terms with its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for ONE Gas, Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the natural gas distribution industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for ONE Gas, Inc. is medium due to the presence of a few large competitors in the natural gas distribution industry, but the company's ability to differentiate itself through its customer service and operational efficiency.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 52.49%
Debt Cost 4.63%
Equity Weight 47.51%
Equity Cost 7.14%
WACC 5.82%
Leverage 110.46%

11. Quality Control: ONE Gas, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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New Jersey Resources

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

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ONE Gas

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

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NiSource

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 10.0

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Atmos Energy

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Southwest Gas Holdings

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 9.7

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New Fortress Energy

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 2.5

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.3

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

78.75$

Current Price

78.75$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows