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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs.The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus vaccine candidate that is in two Phase III trials, one Phase IIb trial, and one Phase I/II trial; NanoFlu, a nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate that is in Phase 3 clinical trial; and ResVax, a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate.It is also developing RSV F vaccine that is in Phase II clinical trial for older adults (60 years and older), as well as that is in Phase I clinical trial for pediatrics.


It has a collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NVX-CoV2373, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate.Novavax, Inc.was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

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1.b. Last Insights on NVAX

Novavax's recent performance was negatively impacted by the decline in COVID-19 vaccine sales, partly due to the sale of its Czech Republic manufacturing unit to Novo Nordisk for $200 million. The company's Q4 loss narrowed, but sales beat estimates, with $88.31 million in revenue, compared to $291 million a year ago. The decrease in product sales under APA agreements contributed to the decline. Additionally, the HHS Secretary's concerns regarding the efficacy of Novavax's protein-based COVID-19 vaccine in a recent interview may have weighed on investor sentiment.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Novavax's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Deeper Dive into Financial Performance and Strategic Progress

Novavax reported a revenue of $70 million for the third quarter of 2025, a decline from $85 million in the same period of 2024. The company reported $13 million in product sales and $57 million in licensing, royalties, and other revenue, primarily from its Sanofi agreement. The GAAP net loss was $202 million, or $1.25 per diluted share, while non-GAAP profitability is targeted for as early as 2028. The actual EPS came out at '-0.62', beating estimates at '-1.08'. The company's combined R&D and SG&A expenses decreased by 18% compared to the same period last year. Novavax ended the quarter with $812 million in cash and accounts receivable.

Publication Date: Nov -24

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Decline in Q3 2025:: Revenue fell to $70 million, a 17.6% drop from $85 million in Q3 2024, with $13 million in product sales and $57 million in licensing/royalties (including $46 million from Sanofi).
  • Cost Reductions:: Combined R&D and SG&A expenses dropped 18% YoY, with SG&A slashed 55% due to transition of commercial activities to Sanofi and infrastructure cuts.
  • Strong Cash Position:: Ended the quarter with $812 million in cash and accounts receivable, supporting long-term initiatives and cost-avoidance strategies from site consolidations ($60M cash, $230M savings over 11 years).
  • Revised Revenue Guidance:: Raised 2025 revenue framework to $1.04–1.06 billion (up $25M) and previewed 2026 adjusted revenue of $185–205 million, driven by Sanofi milestones and partnership diversification.
  • Non-GAAP Profitability Target:: Aims for profitability by 2028, supported by reduced expenses ($505–535M), Sanofi collaboration, and potential milestones from the CIC program ($75M expected in 2026 for tech transfer).

Financial Highlights and Guidance

Novavax reaffirmed its full-year 2025 financial guidance for combined R&D and SG&A expenses of $520 million and narrowed the range to $505 million to $535 million. The company raised its 2025 revenue framework by $25 million to $1.040 billion to $1.060 billion and previewed its 2026 revenue framework, expecting adjusted total revenue of $185 million to $205 million. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -58.4%. With a P/S Ratio of 0.99, the market seems to have a relatively modest expectation from the company's revenue generation capabilities.

Strategic Progress and Partnerships

Novavax made significant progress on its growth strategy, including optimizing its partnership with Sanofi, enhancing existing partnerships, and advancing its technology platform and early-stage pipeline. The company announced a set of transactions to consolidate its Maryland sites, expected to result in $60 million in cash proceeds and $230 million in cost avoidance over 11 years. The partnership with Sanofi includes the ability to use Matrix-M with their flu vaccine, which could provide a lucrative opportunity.

Pipeline Strategy and Innovation

The company is in transition, focusing on its technology platform and pipeline R&D innovation to generate opportunities for partnerships and future growth. The leadership team has spent considerable time evaluating the strategy behind the early-stage pipeline, focusing on areas with significant unmet need and high probabilities of success. The pipeline strategy involves stage-gate markers for go/no-go decisions, ensuring lean and intelligent investment.

Valuation and Future Prospects

With a ROE of -167.0% and a ROIC of 40.28%, the company's profitability metrics are mixed. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 2.45, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. As Novavax targets non-GAAP profitability as early as 2028, driven by its cost reduction efforts and partnerships, the market will be watching closely to see if the company can achieve its goals.

3. NewsRoom

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Dow Jones Today: Stock Indexes Close Lower to Begin December Trading; Big Tech, Crypto-Tied Shares Drop Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

Dec -02

Source: investopedia.com

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FDA Plans to Tighten Vaccine Approvals Weigh on These Stocks

Dec -01

Source: investopedia.com

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Vaccine stocks take a hit as FDA official points to link between COVID-19 vaccines and rare heart condition in young men

Dec -01

Source: marketwatch.com

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Moderna and Novavax Stocks Drop as FDA Proposes Stricter Vaccine Approvals

Dec -01

Source: barrons.com

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Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) Presents at Jefferies London Healthcare Conference 2025 Transcript

Nov -19

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Shah Capital pushes for Novavax sale, warns of proxy fight

Nov -12

Source: reuters.com

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Novavax to Participate in Jefferies London Healthcare Conference

Nov -12

Source: prnewswire.com

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Novavax Q3 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, '25 Sales View Raised

Nov -07

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.47%)

6. Segments

Innovative Vaccines

Expected Growth: 10.47%

Novavax's 10.47% growth driven by increasing demand for innovative vaccines, successful clinical trials, and strategic partnerships. Strong pipeline of vaccine candidates, including COVID-19 and influenza vaccines, fuels growth. Government stockpiling and procurement agreements, as well as expanding global distribution network, contribute to revenue growth.

7. Detailed Products

NanoFlu

A nanoparticle-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate

NVX-CoV2373

A recombinant spike protein-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate

ResVax

A respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate

NanoFlu-H1N1

A nanoparticle-based H1N1 influenza vaccine candidate

V114

A pneumococcal conjugate vaccine candidate

8. Novavax, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Novavax, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes due to the presence of established players in the vaccine development market. However, the company's focus on innovative vaccine technologies and its strong pipeline of products may help mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Novavax, Inc. has a diverse customer base, including governments, NGOs, and private organizations, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products are often critical to public health, giving it an upper hand in negotiations.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Novavax, Inc. relies on a network of suppliers for raw materials, equipment, and services. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size and reputation, suppliers may still exert some pressure on prices and delivery terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The vaccine development market is highly competitive, and new entrants may pose a significant threat to Novavax, Inc. The company's strong intellectual property portfolio and established relationships with customers and partners may help deter new entrants, but the threat remains.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The vaccine development market is highly competitive, with several established players vying for market share. Novavax, Inc. faces intense rivalry from companies like Pfizer, Merck, and GSK, which may lead to pricing pressures and increased marketing expenses.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight -37.66%
Debt Cost 5.12%
Equity Weight 137.66%
Equity Cost 12.02%
WACC 14.62%
Leverage -27.36%

11. Quality Control: Novavax, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Royalty Pharma

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 9.0

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Exelixis

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 9.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 5.0

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Corcept Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 0.3

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.7

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Novavax

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 1.3

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Arcellx

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 4.0

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Alpine Immune Sciences

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 1.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

6.91$

Current Price

6.91$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows