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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.operates as a retailer of brand name merchandise.The company offers housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics; and other products, including hardware, candy, clothing, sporting goods, pet and lawn, and garden products.


It provides its products primarily under the Ollie's, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Good Stuff Cheap, Ollie's Army, Real Brands Real Cheap!, Real Brands! Real Bargains, Sarasota Breeze, Steelton Tools, American Way, and Middleton Home names.As of August 3, 2022, it operated 450 stores in 29 states throughout half of the United States.The company was formerly known as Bargain Holdings, Inc.


and changed its name to Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.in March 2015.Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.


was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

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1.b. Last Insights on OLLI

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by mixed Q3 results, with the company narrowly surpassing EPS expectations. Despite strong Q3 growth, the stock declined. Analysts cut their forecasts due to concerns over valuation and slowing growth. However, Loop Capital upgraded the stock to "buy," citing solid fundamentals and growth prospects. The company's accelerating unit growth, with 86 new stores, and successful loyalty program engagement with younger shoppers, support low-teens revenue growth. Institutional investors, such as Braun Stacey Associates Inc. and SG Americas Securities LLC, have increased their stakes in the company.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings: Strong Q3 Performance and Growth Outlook

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings reported a robust third quarter, with net sales increasing 19% to $614 million, driven by new store openings and comparable store sales growth of 3.3%. The company's adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share rose 29% to $46 million and $0.75, respectively, beating analyst estimates of $0.74. Gross margin decreased 10 basis points to 41.3%, while SG&A expenses decreased 50 basis points to 29.4%, indicating effective cost management.

Publication Date: Dec -20

📋 Highlights
  • Store Expansion Surge: Opened 32 new stores (total 645) in Q3 2025, 18% YoY increase, with 86 planned for 2025 and a 1,300-store long-term target.
  • Loyalty Program Growth: Ollie's Army members rose 12% to 16.6 million, with 30% YoY new membership growth and 12% customer file increase.
  • Financial Performance: Net sales surged 19% to $614 million, driven by 3.3% comp sales growth and SG&A expense reduction to 29.4% (50 bps decline).
  • Profitability Boost: Adjusted net income and EPS climbed 29% to $46 million and $0.75, respectively, with full-year EPS guidance raised to $3.81–$3.87.
  • Strategic Shifts: Digital marketing shift boosted October sales, while supply chain investments (Texas DC expansion +150k sq ft) support 50% capacity increase to 800 stores.

Store Expansion and Loyalty Program Growth

The company opened 32 new stores in the quarter, bringing the total to 645 stores, an 18% increase year-over-year. Ollie's Army loyalty program saw significant growth, with a 12% increase in members to 16.6 million. The company is shifting its marketing strategy to a more digital-first approach, which has shown positive results, including a significant increase in sales in October.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 29.62 and an expected revenue growth rate of 16.4% next year, the company's valuation appears reasonable. The P/S Ratio is 2.61, and the EV/EBITDA is 21.03, indicating a moderate valuation. The company's ROE is 12.7%, and ROIC is 8.11%, demonstrating a decent return on equity and invested capital. As Robert F. Helm noted, "quarter-to-date trends are currently ahead of guidance," citing strength in transaction trends and a step change in AUR.

Margin Expectations and Store Performance

Ollie's guidance for gross margin is 40.3%, above their long-term algorithm of 40%. The company has seen strong new store performance, with 85% of stores opened this year beating plan. Stores in markets where Big Lots has closed continue to outperform the rest of the chain, with a low single-digit to mid-single-digit lift in sales.

Future Growth Plans

The company plans to open 86 new stores in 2025 and has a long-term target of 1,300 stores with a minimum 10% annual unit growth. With a strong pipeline of new stores and a focus on digital marketing, Ollie's is well-positioned for continued growth. The company expects to benefit from a favorable real estate environment and a step change in new store openings, driving double-digit top-line growth and mid-teens bottom-line growth in the long term.

3. NewsRoom

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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Is A Way To Invest In Retail Sector Weakness

Jan -29

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Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. $OLLI Shares Sold by Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH

Jan -26

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Emerald Advisers LLC Reduces Position in Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. $OLLI

Jan -22

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Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) Receives Average Recommendation of “Moderate Buy” from Analysts

Jan -19

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SG Americas Securities LLC Boosts Position in Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. $OLLI

Jan -12

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This Fund Sold $81 Million of Ollie's Stock, but Kept a Nearly $100 Million Bet After a 13% Year

Jan -10

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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings: Visible Low-Teens Earnings Growth

Jan -07

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Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. $OLLI Shares Bought by Braun Stacey Associates Inc.

Jan -02

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.44%)

6. Segments

Home

Expected Growth: 10%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet's 10% growth in the Home segment is driven by increasing demand for affordable home goods, expansion of store count, and effective inventory management. Additionally, the company's 'buy-low, sell-low' business model, which offers customers deep discounts on brand-name products, continues to resonate with price-conscious consumers, contributing to the segment's growth.

Consumable

Expected Growth: 12%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet's 12% growth in Consumables is driven by increasing demand for everyday essentials, strategic pricing, and effective inventory management. The company's 'buy-low, sell-low' model, which offers customers significant discounts, also contributes to growth. Additionally, Ollie's focus on private label products and partnerships with national brands further boosts sales.

Other

Expected Growth: 9%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet's 9% growth is driven by increasing popularity of off-price retail, effective inventory management, and strategic store expansions. Additionally, the company's focus on offering a wide range of products at discounted prices, creating a treasure hunt-like experience for customers, and maintaining a strong balance sheet contribute to its growth momentum.

Seasonal

Expected Growth: 11%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet's 11% seasonal growth is driven by increasing demand for off-price retail, effective inventory management, and strategic store expansions. Additionally, the company's focus on offering a treasure hunt-like shopping experience, competitive pricing, and a loyal customer base contribute to its strong seasonal performance.

7. Detailed Products

Furniture

Ollie's Bargain Outlet offers a wide range of furniture products, including sofas, loveseats, chairs, tables, desks, beds, and more at discounted prices.

Housewares

The company sells a variety of housewares, including kitchen utensils, gadgets, cookware, dinnerware, and home decor items at discounted prices.

Bed and Bath

Ollie's Bargain Outlet offers a range of bed and bath products, including bedding, towels, linens, and more at discounted prices.

Food and Beverage

The company sells a variety of food and beverage products, including snacks, beverages, and specialty foods at discounted prices.

Health and Beauty

Ollie's Bargain Outlet offers a range of health and beauty products, including skincare, haircare, and fragrances at discounted prices.

Toys and Games

The company sells a variety of toys and games, including puzzles, action figures, dolls, and more at discounted prices.

Electronics

Ollie's Bargain Outlet offers a range of electronic products, including TVs, laptops, tablets, and more at discounted prices.

Sports and Outdoors

The company sells a variety of sports and outdoor products, including bicycles, camping gear, and athletic equipment at discounted prices.

Arts and Crafts

Ollie's Bargain Outlet offers a range of arts and crafts supplies, including paints, canvases, and more at discounted prices.

8. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates in a niche market, offering closeout merchandise and excess inventory at discounted prices. The threat of substitutes is low due to the unique nature of its business model.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

While customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternative discount retailers, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s unique product offerings and treasure hunt-like shopping experience help to mitigate this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. has a strong bargaining position with its suppliers due to its ability to purchase excess inventory at discounted prices. This allows the company to negotiate favorable terms with its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the significant barriers to entry in the closeout merchandise market. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s established relationships with suppliers and its expertise in sourcing and pricing merchandise create a high barrier to entry for new competitors.

Intensity Of Rivalry

While Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates in a niche market, there is still some rivalry with other discount retailers. However, the company's unique business model and focus on closeout merchandise help to differentiate it from competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 5.68%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 94.32%
Equity Cost 7.74%
WACC 7.52%
Leverage 6.02%

11. Quality Control: Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Value: 3.1

Growth: 8.4

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 7.3

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PriceSmart

A-Score: 5.8/10

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Ollie's Bargain Outlet

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 2.6

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stride

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 2.0

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Value: 1.8

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 2.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

108.58$

Current Price

108.58$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows