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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

The Oncology Institute, Inc., an oncology company, provides medical oncology services in the United States.Its services include physician services, in-house infusion and dispensary, clinical trial services, radiation, outpatient stem cell transplants and transfusions programs, and patient support.The company also offers and manages clinical trial services, such as managing clinical trials, palliative care programs, and stem cell transplants services.


It serves adult and senior cancer patients.The company operates 67 clinic locations.The Oncology Institute, Inc.


was founded in 2007 and is based in Cerritos, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on TOI

The Oncology Institute's recent performance was driven by the launch of the Florida Oncology Network, a fully delegated cancer care network, which expands access to high-quality, coordinated cancer care for Florida residents. Additionally, the company announced four additional value-based contracts in Q1, demonstrating its growing presence in the value-based care market. The upcoming release of first quarter results on May 2, 2025, and the annual general meeting of shareholders on May 13, 2025, also contribute to the company's positive momentum.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. The Oncology Institute's Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Revenue Growth and Improving Profitability

The Oncology Institute reported a robust third quarter, with revenue increasing 36.7% year-over-year to $136.6 million, driven by 57.4% growth in pharmacy revenue and 21% growth in patient services revenue. Adjusted EBITDA loss improved by $4.7 million to -$3.5 million, representing a significant step towards profitability. The company's actual EPS came in at -$0.14, slightly below estimates of -$0.12. The revenue growth was fueled by the expanding delegated capitation model in Florida, with 40,000 delegated capitated lives showing material progress on integration of care and MLR performance. As Dan Virnich, CEO, noted, "We were able to build on momentum from the first half of this year, delivering strong results across all areas of the business."

Publication Date: Nov -16

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q3 revenue reached $137 million, a 23% YoY increase, driven by 42% pharmacy revenue growth ($75.9 million, 55.6% of total) and 13% fee-for-service growth.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Improvement:: Loss narrowed to $3.5 million, a $4.7 million improvement YoY from -$8.2 million, reflecting operational efficiency and cost management.
  • Full-Year Guidance Raised:: Revenue outlook lifted to $495–$505 million (up from $460–$480 million) and adjusted EBITDA to -$13M to -$11M (vs. prior -$17M to -$8M).
  • Florida Expansion:: Delegated capitation model scaled to 40,000 lives with Elevance Health, alongside expanding MSO network to +200 providers, enhancing MLR performance.
  • Pharmacy Margin Optimization:: Dispensing revenue surged 60% due to reduced script leakage, though Q4 growth is expected to plateau at current levels.

Segment Performance

The pharmacy business was a key driver of growth, with revenue increasing 57.4% year-over-year to $75.9 million, representing 55.6% of total revenue. Patient services revenue, which includes both capitation and fee-for-service arrangements, grew 21% year-over-year to $60.2 million, or 44.1% of total revenue. The company's fee-for-service business also showed improvement, with revenue growing 13% year-over-year.

Guidance and Outlook

The company is raising its guidance ranges for the full year 2025, with revenue expected to be between $495 million and $505 million, up from the previous range of $460 million to $480 million. Adjusted EBITDA loss is expected to be between -$13 million and -$11 million, an improvement from the previous guidance of -$17 million to -$8 million. The company expects to achieve profitability in the fourth quarter and become free cash flow positive in 2026.

Valuation

With a P/S Ratio of 0.91, the company's valuation appears reasonable, considering the strong revenue growth. However, the EV/EBITDA ratio of -9.52 suggests that the market is pricing in significant improvement in profitability. The ROE of -1739.07% and ROIC of -45.91% indicate that the company is still in a loss-making phase, but the improving trend is encouraging. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 23.2%, which is slightly lower than this year's growth rate, but still indicates a strong upward trajectory.

3. NewsRoom

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The Oncology Institute Announces Resignation of Board Member Gabe Ling

Dec -01

Source: globenewswire.com

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A Mysterious Stock Has Rallied Over 950% This Year. Here's 1 Key Reason Why Investors Are Turning Bullish

Nov -21

Source: fool.com

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NewGenIvf Group (NASDAQ:NIVF) & Oncology Institute (NASDAQ:TOI) Head-To-Head Survey

Nov -15

Source: defenseworld.net

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The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -14

Source: seekingalpha.com

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The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) Reports Q3 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimates

Nov -13

Source: zacks.com

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Ascertain and The Oncology Institute Co-Develop ‘Touchless' AI Automation for Oncology Administration

Nov -13

Source: globenewswire.com

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The Oncology Institute Announces Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Release Date and Conference Call

Oct -22

Source: globenewswire.com

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Topicus.com Inc. Announces Release Date for Third Quarter Results

Oct -20

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.48%)

6. Segments

Patient Services

Expected Growth: 8.4%

The Oncology Institute's 8.4% growth in Patient Services is driven by increasing demand for cancer care, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, advancements in precision medicine and immunotherapy have led to higher treatment volumes. Furthermore, the company's focus on patient-centric care and investment in digital health platforms have improved patient engagement and retention, contributing to the segment's growth.

Dispensary

Expected Growth: 8.5%

The Oncology Institute, Inc.'s dispensary growth of 8.5% is driven by increasing demand for cancer treatments, expansion into new markets, strategic partnerships, and improved patient outcomes. Additionally, the company's focus on personalized medicine, investment in digital health technologies, and growing acceptance of value-based care models contribute to its rapid growth.

Clinical Trials & Other

Expected Growth: 10.5%

The Oncology Institute's Clinical Trials & Other segment growth of 10.5% is driven by increasing demand for innovative cancer treatments, strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical companies, and expansion into new geographic markets. Additionally, investments in digital infrastructure and data analytics capabilities enhance patient recruitment and retention, further fueling growth.

7. Detailed Products

Medical Oncology Services

Comprehensive cancer care services including chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and targeted therapy

Radiation Oncology Services

Advanced radiation therapy treatments, including external beam radiation therapy, stereotactic body radiation therapy, and brachytherapy

Surgical Oncology Services

Minimally invasive surgical procedures for cancer treatment, including laparoscopic and robotic-assisted surgery

Clinical Trials

Access to innovative and investigational cancer treatments through participation in clinical trials

Supportive Care Services

Comprehensive supportive care services, including nutrition counseling, pain management, and social work services

Genetic Counseling and Testing

Personalized genetic counseling and testing for hereditary cancer risk

8. The Oncology Institute, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes is moderate for The Oncology Institute, Inc. due to the availability of alternative cancer treatment options, but the company's specialized services and strong reputation mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for The Oncology Institute, Inc. as patients often rely on the company's specialized services and have limited negotiating power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate for The Oncology Institute, Inc. as the company relies on a few key suppliers for medical equipment and pharmaceuticals, but has some flexibility in its supply chain.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high for The Oncology Institute, Inc. due to the growing demand for cancer treatment services and the potential for new competitors to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for The Oncology Institute, Inc. due to the competitive nature of the cancer treatment services market and the presence of established competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 62.05%
Debt Cost 5.66%
Equity Weight 37.95%
Equity Cost 8.06%
WACC 6.57%
Leverage 163.49%

11. Quality Control: The Oncology Institute, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
The Oncology Institute

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
DocGo

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Brookdale Senior Living

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Sonida Senior Living

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
American Oncology Network

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Community Health Systems

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

3.03$

Current Price

3.03$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows