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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

OneSpan Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and markets digital solutions for identity, security, and business productivity worldwide.The company offers OneSpan Sign, a range of e-signature requirements for occasional agreement to processing tens of thousands of transactions; OneSpan Cloud Authentication, a cloud-based multifactor authentication solution that supports a range of authentication options, including biometrics, push notification, and visual cryptograms for transaction data signing, SMS, and hardware authenticators; and OneSpan Identity Verification, which enables banks and financial institutions identity verification services.It also provides Mobile Security Suite, a software development kit; Mobile Authenticator Studio, a mobile authenticator that operates as a discrete mobile application; and authentication servers, which enables customers to administer a high level of access control.


In addition, it offers Trusted Identity Platform, a cloud platform that simplify and secure user journeys; Intelligent Adaptive Authentication; and Risk Analytics, a comprehensive anti-fraud solution.It sells its solutions through its direct sales force, as well as through distributors, resellers, systems integrators, and original equipment manufacturers.The company was formerly known as VASCO Data Security International, Inc.


and changed its name to OneSpan Inc.in May 2018.OneSpan Inc.


was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.OneSpan Inc.was a former subsidiary of Guidewire Software, Inc.

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1.b. Last Insights on OSPN

OneSpan's recent performance was negatively impacted by muted growth prospects. The company's H1 2025 results showed flat revenue, with subscription growth offset by declines in hardware and sunset products. Profitability improvements were largely driven by cost cuts, rather than top-line growth. The company's FY 2025 outlook remains flat, which may not justify its current valuation. Additionally, adjusted EBITDA and earnings growth are limited by recurring expenses and share-based compensation. A Hold rating was maintained due to these factors.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. OneSpan's Q3 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

OneSpan reported a strong quarter, with total revenue growing 1% to $57 million, driven by double-digit organic subscription revenue growth. However, this growth was offset by a reduction in security hardware revenue due to the shift towards mobile-first authentication approaches. The company's adjusted EBITDA was $17.5 million, up 2% YoY, and EPS came in at $0.33, beating estimates of $0.28. The company's subscription revenue grew 12%, with security and digital agreements growing 13% and 11%, respectively.

Publication Date: Nov -25

📋 Highlights
  • Profitability & Shareholder Returns:: Fixed cost structure ensured profitability, generating $25M for shareholders via dividends and buybacks by 2025.
  • Subscription Revenue Growth:: Subscription revenue rose 12% YoY ($68.8M) with security (13%) and digital agreements (11%) driving gains.
  • Revenue Guidance Adjustment:: Full-year revenue updated to $239–241M, reflecting 3–4% software/services growth and 16% hardware decline.
  • ARR Momentum:: ARR grew 10% YoY ($180M), with expectations of accelerated growth in 2026 from expanded software capabilities.
  • Strategic Investments:: Acquired Nok Nok, partnered with ThreatFabric, and invested in FIDO2, with $85.6M cash reserves supporting innovation.

Revenue Mix and Guidance

The company's revenue mix continues to shift towards software and services, with software accounting for about 80% of the business. The company has updated its revenue guidance to $239-241 million, with software and services revenue expected to grow 3-4% and hardware revenue expected to decline 16%. According to Jorge Martell, CFO, the reduction in guidance was primarily due to a higher headwind in the hardware business and lower net expansions and new logos in the security business, primarily in EMEA.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

OneSpan's valuation metrics suggest that the market is pricing in moderate growth prospects. The company's P/S Ratio is 1.91, and EV/EBITDA is 6.74, indicating that the market is expecting stable cash flows. However, the company's ROE is 25.16%, and ROIC is 21.73%, indicating strong profitability. The company's ARR growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, driven by the expansion of its software offerings, particularly with the adoption of passkeys.

Key Drivers and Challenges

The company's key drivers include the adoption of its mobile authentication technology, the success of its FIDO2 push, and the integration of ThreatFabric's capabilities. However, the company faces challenges in the EMEA region, where economic conditions have been challenging. The company's hardware revenue decline is also a headwind, although the impact is expected to decrease over time.

Outlook

OneSpan's focus remains on delivering strong profitability, cash generation, and shareholder returns, while investing in internal R&D and targeted technology-driven investments to enhance its product portfolio. The company's dividend yield is 3.98%, and free cash flow yield is 11.11%, making it an attractive option for income investors. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.0%, which is modest, but the company's strong profitability and cash generation capabilities make it a compelling investment opportunity.

3. NewsRoom

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OneSpan Appoints Shaun Bierweiler as Chief Revenue Officer

Dec -02

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ONESPAN INC (OSPN) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Nov -20

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Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Advances Mobile Banking Security with SCSK and OneSpan's FIDO Cloud Authentication Solution

Nov -17

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Aviva PLC Has $495,000 Stake in Onespan Inc $OSPN

Nov -14

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Investors Heavily Search ONESPAN INC (OSPN): Here is What You Need to Know

Nov -06

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OneSpan Got Cheaper, But Earnings Expectations Are Lower Too

Nov -05

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OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct -30

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OneSpan (OSPN) Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates

Oct -30

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.89%)

6. Segments

Security Solutions

Expected Growth: 1.8%

OneSpan Inc.'s Security Solutions segment growth of 1.8% is driven by increasing demand for digital identity verification, cloud-based security, and anti-fraud solutions. Growing adoption of online and mobile banking, coupled with rising cyber threats, fuels the need for robust security measures. OneSpan's innovative solutions, such as e-signatures and risk analytics, position the company for continued growth in this segment.

Digital Agreements

Expected Growth: 2.2%

OneSpan Inc.'s Digital Agreements growth is driven by increasing demand for digital transformation, rising adoption of cloud-based solutions, and growing need for secure and compliant electronic agreements. Additionally, the shift towards remote work and digital customer experiences, as well as the need for cost reduction and process efficiency, are contributing to the 2.2% growth.

7. Detailed Products

e-Signatures

OneSpan's e-Signatures allow users to electronically sign documents and agreements, providing a secure and compliant way to obtain consent and approvals.

Identity Verification

OneSpan's Identity Verification solution uses AI-powered technology to verify the identity of users, ensuring that they are who they claim to be.

Risk Analytics

OneSpan's Risk Analytics solution uses machine learning and predictive analytics to identify and mitigate fraud risks in real-time.

Authentication

OneSpan's Authentication solutions provide secure and convenient authentication methods, including biometric, behavioral, and risk-based authentication.

Compliance and Regulatory Solutions

OneSpan's Compliance and Regulatory Solutions help organizations comply with regulations such as GDPR, PSD2, and AML, reducing the risk of non-compliance.

8. OneSpan Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

OneSpan Inc. operates in a niche market with limited substitutes, but the threat of substitutes is still present due to the evolving nature of the digital identity verification and e-signature industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

OneSpan Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products and services are often critical to its customers' operations, making it difficult for customers to negotiate prices or terms.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

OneSpan Inc. has a diversified supply chain, which reduces its dependence on individual suppliers. The company's suppliers are also relatively small compared to OneSpan's size, giving the company bargaining power in negotiations.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the digital identity verification and e-signature industry is moderate due to the presence of barriers to entry, such as regulatory hurdles and the need for significant investments in technology and infrastructure.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The digital identity verification and e-signature industry is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. OneSpan Inc. faces intense competition from companies such as DocuSign, Adobe, and others.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 5.27%
Debt Cost 8.01%
Equity Weight 94.73%
Equity Cost 8.01%
WACC 8.01%
Leverage 5.56%

11. Quality Control: OneSpan Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
OneSpan

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Glimpse Group

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Bakkt Holdings

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Rekor Systems

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Veritone

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Rackspace Technology

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

12.29$

Current Price

12.29$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows