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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Origin Bancorp, Inc.operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.It offers noninterest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, money market accounts, and time deposits; and offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, consumer, residential real estate, commercial and industrial, mortgage warehouse, residential mortgage, and paycheck protection program loans.


The company also offers personal and commercial property, and casualty insurance products; and Internet banking and voice response information, mobile applications, cash management, overdraft protection, direct deposit, safe deposit box, U.S. savings bonds, and automatic account transfer services; and treasury management, mortgage origination and servicing facilities, peer-to-peer electronic pay solutions, and personal financial management solutions.The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana.

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1.b. Last Insights on OBK

Origin Bancorp, Inc.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by its Q3 2025 earnings miss, with net income of $8.6 million, or $0.27 diluted EPS, versus $0.6 per share a year ago. The company's earnings call highlighted challenges, but noted growing optimism about its prospects, leading to an upgrade to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Additionally, Concurrent Investment Advisors LLC's recent stake acquisition and a declared quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share may provide some support.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Origin Bancorp's Q3 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

Origin Bancorp, Inc. reported its third-quarter earnings, with diluted EPS of $0.27, significantly below analyst estimates of $0.89. The company's total revenue, excluding notable items, was up 10% year-over-year, while noninterest expense, excluding notable items, decreased by 3%. The net interest margin (NIM) expanded due to its Optimize Origin initiative, with NIM up 48 basis points. Pre-tax pre-provision ROA increased 48 basis points to 1.63% compared to the second quarter of 2024.

Publication Date: Nov -24

📋 Highlights
  • Tricolor Fraud Charge-Off Impact:: $28.4M charge-off due to Tricolor fraud, with $500K in mortgages linked to an executive, excluding which net charge-offs were 16 bps.
  • Operational Efficiency Gains:: Total revenue up 10%, noninterest expenses down 3%, and ROA increased 48 bps to 1.63% amid Optimize Origin initiative.
  • Loan Growth and Guidance:: Year-to-date loan production rose 19.2%, but 2025 growth guidance revised to flat due to paydowns; 2026 growth expected at mid-to-high single digits.
  • Debt Reduction and Margin Expansion:: $74M subordinated debt redemption to save $3M annually; NIM expanded 48 bps, contributing to improved profitability.
  • Credit Risk and Portfolio Stability:: Allowance for credit losses increased to 1.35%, with subprime portfolio at 1.2% of total loans and no systemic credit deterioration observed.

Impact of Tricolor Charge-Off

The company faced a significant charge-off related to Tricolor, a customer with allegations of fraud, totaling $28.4 million. The charge-off was conservative, and the company expects some recoveries through insurance claims and legal recourse. The net charge-off for Q3 was $31.4 million, with $3 million in net charge-offs outside of Tricolor. The allowance for credit losses increased from 1.29% to 1.35%.

Loan Growth and Credit Trends

The company's loan production is up 19.2% year-to-date compared to the same period last year. Origin Bancorp updated its loan growth guidance to essentially flat for the year, due to paydowns and payoffs. However, the company is optimistic about loan growth in 2026, with a strong pipeline for Q4 and expectations of mid-to-high single-digit growth. The company saw a normal cycle movement of credits, with an increase in classified loans, nonperforming loans, and charge-offs. Excluding the Tricolor event, net charge-offs would have been 16 basis points for the quarter.

Valuation and Outlook

With a Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) of approximately 0.91, the stock appears reasonably valued. The Dividend Yield stands at 1.69%, providing a relatively stable source of return. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.7%. The company expects to continue its Optimize Origin initiative, with a focus on process improvement, revenue enhancement, and expense controls. The company prioritizes organic balance sheet growth, but will also consider stock buybacks and M&A opportunities.

Fee Income Guidance

The company expects low double-digit growth in fee income in the fourth quarter, excluding non-recurring items. The growth is driven by contributions from its Argent Financial acquisition and swap fees, although swap fees are expected to be lower in the fourth quarter. The fixed loan repricing dynamic is expected to provide a tailwind, with over $300 million of loans set to reprice in 2026 at a higher yield.

3. NewsRoom

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Origin Bancorp (NYSE:OBK) vs. CoastalSouth Bancshares (NYSE:COSO) Head to Head Contrast

Nov -21

Source: defenseworld.net

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Origin Bancorp (OBK) Upgraded to Buy: Here's What You Should Know

Oct -27

Source: zacks.com

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Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct -23

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Here's What Key Metrics Tell Us About Origin Bancorp (OBK) Q3 Earnings

Oct -23

Source: zacks.com

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Origin Bancorp (OBK) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates

Oct -22

Source: zacks.com

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Origin Bancorp, Inc. Reports Earnings for Third Quarter 2025

Oct -22

Source: globenewswire.com

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Origin Bancorp, Inc. Announces Declaration of Quarterly Cash Dividend

Oct -22

Source: globenewswire.com

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Concurrent Investment Advisors LLC Buys Shares of 6,263 Origin Bancorp, Inc. $OBK

Oct -21

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.00%)

6. Segments

Community Banking

Expected Growth: 7%

Origin Bancorp's 7% community banking growth is driven by strategic branch expansions, increased commercial lending, and a strong deposit growth rate. Additionally, the bank's focus on digital transformation, enhanced customer experience, and targeted marketing efforts have contributed to its growth. Furthermore, the bank's commitment to community development and philanthropic initiatives has fostered strong relationships with local businesses and residents, driving deposit and loan growth.

7. Detailed Products

Commercial Loans

Origin Bancorp, Inc. offers a range of commercial loans to businesses, including term loans, lines of credit, and construction loans, to support their growth and expansion plans.

Residential Mortgages

The company offers a variety of residential mortgage products, including fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages, to help individuals and families achieve homeownership.

Consumer Banking

Origin Bancorp, Inc. provides a range of consumer banking services, including checking and savings accounts, credit cards, and personal loans, to meet the financial needs of individuals and families.

Wealth Management

The company offers wealth management services, including investment and insurance products, to help individuals and families achieve their long-term financial goals.

Treasury Management

Origin Bancorp, Inc. provides treasury management services, including cash management and fraud prevention, to help businesses optimize their financial operations.

8. Origin Bancorp, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Origin Bancorp, Inc. is medium due to the presence of alternative financial institutions and digital banking platforms.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for Origin Bancorp, Inc. as customers have limited negotiating power due to the bank's strong brand reputation and limited alternatives.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium for Origin Bancorp, Inc. as the bank relies on a few large suppliers for technology and services, giving them some negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low for Origin Bancorp, Inc. due to the high barriers to entry in the banking industry, including regulatory hurdles and capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for Origin Bancorp, Inc. due to the competitive nature of the banking industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 21.04%
Debt Cost 8.73%
Equity Weight 78.96%
Equity Cost 8.73%
WACC 8.73%
Leverage 26.65%

11. Quality Control: Origin Bancorp, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
First Bancorp

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Stellar Bancorp

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Western New England Bancorp

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
German American Bancorp

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Origin Bancorp

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
California Bank

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 8.4

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

37.35$

Current Price

37.35$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows