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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

PBF Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining and supplying petroleum products.The company operates in two segments, Refining and Logistics.It produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt, as well as unbranded transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks, blending components, and other petroleum products.


The company sells its products in Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast of the United States, as well as in other regions of the United States, Canada, and Mexico.It also offers various rail, truck, and marine terminaling services, as well as pipeline transportation and storage services.As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated six oil refineries and related assets.


PBF Energy Inc.was founded in 2008 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.

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1.b. Last Insights on PBF

PBF Energy's recent performance was positively driven by a narrower Q3 loss, primarily due to cost-cutting measures. The company's Q3 earnings revealed a loss of $0.52 per share, beating revenue estimates. A Goldman Sachs analyst upgrade, raising the price target from $25 to $30, likely boosted investor confidence. Additionally, the sale of terminal assets for $175.4 million and a second unallocated installment of $250 million related to the Martinez Refinery Fire will likely enhance liquidity.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. PBF Energy's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

PBF Energy reported an adjusted net loss of $0.52 per share for the third quarter, beating analyst estimates of -$0.69 per share. The company's adjusted EBITDA was $144.4 million. The revenue growth was driven by strong product cracks and improving crude differentials. With a current 'P/E Ratio' of -7.52 and 'P/S Ratio' of 0.13, it appears that the market has already priced in the challenges faced by the company. The 'EV/EBITDA' ratio stands at 42.82, indicating a relatively high valuation for the company's EBITDA.

Publication Date: Nov -02

📋 Highlights
  • Martinez Refinery Restart:: Scheduled for December 2025, with maintenance teams completing unit turnarounds in early December.
  • RBI Program Progress:: $21M in run-rate savings achieved via procurement changes, toward $230M annualized target by 2025 ($0.50/barrel OpEx cuts).
  • Insurance Gain Impact:: $250M gain from Martinez fire recovery, boosting Q3 cash flow despite $0.52/share adjusted net loss and $144.4M EBITDA.
  • Market Positioning:: 40%+ refining capture rate expected in Q4 due to widening crude differentials, reduced maintenance, and lower RINs costs.
  • Debt and Liquidity:: $482M cash balance and $1.9B net debt, with CFO projecting year-end net debt lower than current levels post-insurance inflows.

Operational Performance

The Martinez refinery is on track for a December restart, with maintenance teams turning over units to operations in early December. The company's Refining Business Improvement (RBI) program aims to implement $230 million in annualized run-rate savings by the end of 2025. As Michael Bukowski reported, the company is on target to achieve this goal, with $210 million already implemented. The RBI program has shown progress, including a 5% cost reduction in the Torrance hydrocracker turnaround and $21 million in run-rate savings through procurement model changes.

Cash Flow and Debt

PBF's cash flow from operations was approximately $25 million, with a working capital draw of $74 million. The company invested $132 million in consolidated CapEx and had $482 million in cash and $1.9 billion in net debt at quarter-end. As CFO Joe Marino stated, the company's net debt would be lower than it is today, but higher than it was at the beginning of the year, if the extraordinary costs and cash inflows from insurance were taken out.

Outlook and Valuation

The company's outlook for the fourth quarter appears positive, with crude diffs trending wider and other factors moving in its favor. CEO Matt Lucey believes a capture rate north of 40% is realistic for the fourth quarter. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 5.0%. With a 'Net Debt / EBITDA' ratio of 17.3 and a 'Free Cash Flow Yield' of -22.02%, the company's debt levels and cash flow generation remain a concern.

Renewable Diesel Segment

The company views its renewable diesel asset as a top-tier asset and has no plans to shut it down, despite the challenges in the market. The administration change has shifted the focus from low-carbon intensity incentive to increasing soybean production and use, which will impact assets. New rules may lead to higher RIN prices, and the company's location and capabilities set it apart from others.

3. NewsRoom

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Update Regarding Singapore Subsidiary

Dec -04

Source: newsfilecorp.com

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PBF Energy Inc. $PBF Position Trimmed by Edgestream Partners L.P.

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) Receives Average Rating of “Strong Sell” from Analysts

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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Cetera Investment Advisers Acquires 22,607 Shares of PBF Energy Inc. $PBF

Dec -02

Source: defenseworld.net

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Ameritas Investment Partners Inc. Sells 2,474 Shares of PBF Energy Inc. $PBF

Nov -29

Source: defenseworld.net

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Creative Planning Acquires 36,571 Shares of PBF Energy Inc. $PBF

Nov -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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PBF Energy Q3 Loss Narrower Than Expected, Revenues Decline Y/Y

Nov -12

Source: zacks.com

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PBF Energy to Participate in Industry Conferences

Nov -06

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.84%)

6. Segments

Refining

Expected Growth: 3.83%

PBF Energy's refining segment growth of 3.83% is driven by increased throughput volumes, improved refining margins, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on cost optimization, operational efficiency, and investments in high-return projects contribute to its growth. Furthermore, favorable market conditions, including strong demand for refined products and a competitive pricing environment, also support the segment's growth.

Logistics

Expected Growth: 4.65%

PBF Energy Inc.'s Logistics segment growth of 4.65% is driven by increased demand for refined products, strategic acquisitions, and expansion of existing infrastructure. Additionally, optimization of transportation networks, improved operational efficiency, and favorable market conditions contribute to the segment's growth.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 4.0%

PBF Energy Inc.'s 4.0% growth is driven by increased refining throughput, improved product yields, and higher crude oil prices. Additionally, the company's strategic acquisitions, such as the buyout of Shell's Martinez refinery, have expanded its refining capacity and diversified its product offerings, contributing to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Refined Products

PBF Energy Inc. refines crude oil into various petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, lubricants, and asphalt.

Petrochemicals

PBF Energy Inc. produces petrochemicals, such as propylene, butadiene, and benzene, used as feedstocks for the production of plastics, fibers, and other chemicals.

Lubricants

PBF Energy Inc. produces a range of lubricants, including motor oils, transmission fluids, and industrial lubricants.

Asphalt

PBF Energy Inc. produces asphalt, a thick, sticky liquid used for road construction and maintenance.

Heavy Fuel Oils

PBF Energy Inc. produces heavy fuel oils, used as a fuel for power generation, industrial processes, and marine transportation.

Sulfur

PBF Energy Inc. produces sulfur, used in the production of sulfuric acid, fertilizers, and other chemicals.

8. PBF Energy Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

PBF Energy Inc. operates in the refining and logistics industry, where substitutes are limited. However, the company faces some threat from alternative energy sources and changing consumer preferences.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

PBF Energy Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products are essential to its customers, giving it an upper hand in negotiations.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

PBF Energy Inc. relies on a few large suppliers for its crude oil and other raw materials. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size, suppliers also have some leverage due to the specialized nature of their products.

Threat Of New Entrants

The refining and logistics industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This limits the threat of new entrants to PBF Energy Inc.'s business.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The refining and logistics industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. PBF Energy Inc. faces intense rivalry from its peers, which can lead to pricing pressure and reduced margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 17.64%
Debt Cost 6.66%
Equity Weight 82.36%
Equity Cost 12.66%
WACC 11.60%
Leverage 21.41%

11. Quality Control: PBF Energy Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Alliance Resource Partners

A-Score: 7.4/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 8.7

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International Seaways

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 5.7

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HF Sinclair

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.3

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A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 2.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 9.0

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PBF Energy

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 2.3

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Valvoline

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 7.3

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

33.4$

Current Price

33.4$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows